Crude Oil

[bgold]

Another attempt to broaden the Commodities board, here's some thoughts about crude oil.

NYMEX, lt sweet, 1000bbl per contract,
min fluctuation: $0.01/bbl = $10.-
CL J04 OI: 156000 down from 216k end feb (which seems more down than other contracts are up, eg some liquidiation?)

First the disclaimer: Crude is in a firm long term uptrend, on weekly chart indicators have been confirming the new price highs!! Fundamentals appear also strong with low US stocks etc.

That said, decline since since 37.53 high on Tuesday appears impulsive. 5 wave down can be counted. Tuesday was a Bearish engulfing pattern (outside down day). On daily chart, MACD almost gives a swing signal. On hourly charts, there appears ND in various indicators RSI, MACD.

Is this a more meaningful top? Was yesterday's low end of wave i down?
If so I expect wave ii not to breach 37 (fib 0.618 of wave i). My initial target would be 33.50 which equals .618 retracement of wave v up and bottom of previous wave iv. (see chart). There are,however, many resistance levels, such as fe:
35.35 bottom wave 4,
35 which is 0.382 retracement and top wave iii

Please share your observations/ideas/comments?

 

[TWI]

I know that I harp on about fundamentals quite a lot but in Crude at the current time I think they are particularly relevant. Shorting crude takes on a large element of fundamental upside risk.
Venezuela supplies 13% of US crude and Chavez as well as calling GWB an a-hole openly is threatening to cut off US supplies if the US tries to continue to engineer its "coup".
On top of this if you remain bearish of the dollar then crude will continue to appreciate to compensate for this ratio.
I think the Fed would love to see crude come off and should Chavez cut then they would no doubt ask OPEC to increase quotas....However in current Arab/US climate what is chance of that??
technically it certainly looks overbought but maybe a buy dips play rather than sell rallies.
All IMHO

 

[DaveT]

April04 Crude oil -

- Holding 10 day moving average.

- MACD overbought and could be crossing down + VOLUME DECLINING = correction?

- But channel breakout (if it holds) could signal acceleration of uptrend...

Just my thoughts.

 

[BBB]

Nice posts. I'd be backing twalker at this stage. The more info available the better (fundamentals) when looking to hold overnight/longer term.

I've never traded crude. What are the fills like? I've been told the data coming out of NY (or is this IPE?) is awful and the fills leave a lot to be desired. I thought that odd considering liquidity?

 

[bgold]

Great comments from you all. Hope we can continue this thread. I hope it is as beneficial to you as for me.

BBB, after getting hosed on e-Mini Crude contract, I have traded CL (NYMEX) contract a few times (with mixed success). My experience is that it is not so much liquidity but the open-outcry pit trading which can make it all seem a bit more erratic than other markets especially the financials). For example, I once had a stop to sell with limit, which in a falling market wasn't filled, nevermind that prices twice came within my limit.
Later learnt that broker should have accepted the stop lim instruction and in fact did get my fill (which was almost $0.80 in my favour).

Basically, in fast markets things seem to get a bit fuzzy. Outside pit hours, I believe liquidity is mixed (haven't verified).
Don't know about IPE.

 

[BBB]

Thanks Bgold. Pretty much a similar story to other accounts of NYMEX fills that I've come across.

As a rule, I only trade on electronic platforms now. The problem is a lot of the contracts just dont have liquidity, such as the grains. That leaves a handful of financials - not a wide choice is it!

 

[TWI]

Is Chavez in America's crosshairs?
LINDA MCQUAIG
The Toronto Star
The president of Venezuela was addressing an International Women's Day gathering in Caracas last week, when he broke into song. The overflow crowd, familiar with their exuberant president's penchant for singing popular songs when the spirit moves him, went wild, chanting for more. He obliged. Sitting in the audience, I was struck by the emotional connection between the crowd and Hugo Chavez — democratically elected president, revolutionary style leader, champion of Venezuela's poor, scourge of Venezuela's rich, and, some say, next on Washington's hit list.
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/Co...564&call_pageid=968256290204&col=968350116795

 

[Dentalfloss]

what is the next price move.where can i get a daily chart for brent crude?

 

[DaveT]

go to www.futuresource.com

and sign up to their premium FREE charts.

Next price move?

I'm not prepered to speculate. Literally.

 

[nicolas500]

Where to next?

This Board's gone a bit quiet. Wondered what everybody else thinks about future directions. Past twenty four hours have been a rollercoaster of a ride. Did anybody emerge unscathed?

 

[TWI]

Think time to start buying again.

 

[TWI]

And now buy some more

 

[peter carlin]

why not listen to some people who know what they're doing and have been trading oil as pros for over 20 years?

www.theoiltrader.com

 

[peter carlin]

Wrong Move

Think time to start buying again.

should have read www.theoiltrader.com

we've been selling for over 10 days now

 

[rog1111]

Ipe

bgold

The open outcry nature of NYMEX has always put me right off trading their products, despite the tremendous personal appeal of the energy markets. Some time back I started looking at the IPE's Brent Crude contract, which can be traded electronically from 02h00 to 22h00 & might be a way of avoiding all the uncertainty of the NYMEX pit. I've not yet traded through the IPE. Comments anyone ?

rog1111

Great comments from you all. Hope we can continue this thread. I hope it is as beneficial to you as for me.

BBB, after getting hosed on e-Mini Crude contract, I have traded CL (NYMEX) contract a few times (with mixed success). My experience is that it is not so much liquidity but the open-outcry pit trading which can make it all seem a bit more erratic than other markets especially the financials). For example, I once had a stop to sell with limit, which in a falling market wasn't filled, nevermind that prices twice came within my limit.
Later learnt that broker should have accepted the stop lim instruction and in fact did get my fill (which was almost $0.80 in my favour).

Basically, in fast markets things seem to get a bit fuzzy. Outside pit hours, I believe liquidity is mixed (haven't verified).
Don't know about IPE.

 

[TWI]

Yeah, I forgot to add the and now get stopped out post... ;-)
Well done with your call, I hope you will post your next trading idea here, ahead of the price action, so we can share in them and see if you are worth your money. Note that my posts came before the move, 10th and 11th had some good upside before it went tits up whereas you are posting with hindsight.

 

[nicolas500]

I've taken advantage of TheOilTrader's 14 day free offer and found it to be sensational. I'm not a big trader (£5-10 per point) but have little doubt that the Professional Series subscription is worth the subscription. I easily made more than the month's subscription within the first day by following their advice. Obviously not every day is going to be like this but so far I am really impressed. Would definitely advise others to try it out for free and see what they think. I'm definitely going to subscribe.

 

[jimbo57]

I note earlier comments re the merits of IPE v. NYMEX. As a pro oil trader of many years standing, the IPE is nothing more than the donkey following the NYMEX carrot,. There is an electronic session on NYMEX available half hour after the pit close through to half hour before the pit session. Open outcry does have problems, the locals can run it from time to time, but the IPE is a squalid little affair, bossed around by 1 or 2 players, with a bizarre cash settle expiry. The NMEX has breadth and depth and is THE place where oil prices are determined.