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Crude Oil, Gold, and Silver Positioned for Declines
Thursday, 25 September 2008 21:21:14 GMT
Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst and Jamie Saettele, Senior Strategist
Index Strat Risk Target
Oil Hold
Gold Hold
Silver Hold
Long-Term Technical Forecast for Crude Oil
The drop from 147 is in 3 waves to this point and reversed at the middle of a major congestion area near 90. A larger corrective pattern may be underway and staying below 122.04 keeps the bias to the downside. There is potential resistance in the 106-111 zone.
Short-Term Technical Forecast for Crude Oil
Crude oil continues its tremendously volatile trading, and the November contract rallied strongly but fell short at key resistance to round out the day’s trade. Indeed, price stalled at the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 122.43-90.42 decline, which likewise coincides with the contract’s 200-day moving average and a minor falling trendline. It seems that risks are weighed to the downside for very-short-term Crude trading, and targets on any potential declines would come in at previous resistance at 102.65.
Long-term Technical Forecast for Gold Prices
Gold has surged but the rally may be a correction of the decline from 10480 to 740. The large multi-month decline is in 5 waves, although wave 4 is small in time compared to wave 2. A wave 2 top could be in place at yesterday’s high (although judging by silver’s position, the advance may have more to go), which is just shy of the 61.8% the entire decline (930). A push through there targets the 78.6% at 982.
Short-Term Technical Outlook for Gold
Gold continues its extraordinarily volatile trading, and near-term outlook now depends on whether it is able to sustain a push above previous resistance at its 200-day Simple Moving Average of 890.40. Resistance to the topside is fairly clear at previous spike-highs of 922, while the contract’s 100-day SMA could potentially lend support at 877.40.
Long-Term Technical Forecast for Silver
Silver appears to have completed 5 waves down from its March top. A corrective advance should be underway towards the 14.60-17.26 zone (Fibonacci zone). We’ll look to identify the secondary top as the pattern plays out.
Short-Term Technical Forecast for Silver
The COMEX Silver contract traded off of moves in the US Dollar and Gold prices, rallying sharply higher in tandem with other dollar-denominated commodity prices. Yet near-term resistance at the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 19.375-10.28 decline at 13.834 has thus far held back a further advance. The COMEX contract continues to trade within a narrow range through the past week, and the next price break will likely be decisive. Weekly support at 13.054 has thus far served as a base, but a break below could open up a move to previous congestion near the 12.500 mark.
CFDTrading.com provides free news, trading resources, and market analysis to the trading community.
Thursday, 25 September 2008 21:21:14 GMT
Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst and Jamie Saettele, Senior Strategist
Index Strat Risk Target
Oil Hold
Gold Hold
Silver Hold
Long-Term Technical Forecast for Crude Oil
The drop from 147 is in 3 waves to this point and reversed at the middle of a major congestion area near 90. A larger corrective pattern may be underway and staying below 122.04 keeps the bias to the downside. There is potential resistance in the 106-111 zone.
Short-Term Technical Forecast for Crude Oil
Crude oil continues its tremendously volatile trading, and the November contract rallied strongly but fell short at key resistance to round out the day’s trade. Indeed, price stalled at the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 122.43-90.42 decline, which likewise coincides with the contract’s 200-day moving average and a minor falling trendline. It seems that risks are weighed to the downside for very-short-term Crude trading, and targets on any potential declines would come in at previous resistance at 102.65.
Long-term Technical Forecast for Gold Prices
Gold has surged but the rally may be a correction of the decline from 10480 to 740. The large multi-month decline is in 5 waves, although wave 4 is small in time compared to wave 2. A wave 2 top could be in place at yesterday’s high (although judging by silver’s position, the advance may have more to go), which is just shy of the 61.8% the entire decline (930). A push through there targets the 78.6% at 982.
Short-Term Technical Outlook for Gold
Gold continues its extraordinarily volatile trading, and near-term outlook now depends on whether it is able to sustain a push above previous resistance at its 200-day Simple Moving Average of 890.40. Resistance to the topside is fairly clear at previous spike-highs of 922, while the contract’s 100-day SMA could potentially lend support at 877.40.
Long-Term Technical Forecast for Silver
Silver appears to have completed 5 waves down from its March top. A corrective advance should be underway towards the 14.60-17.26 zone (Fibonacci zone). We’ll look to identify the secondary top as the pattern plays out.
Short-Term Technical Forecast for Silver
The COMEX Silver contract traded off of moves in the US Dollar and Gold prices, rallying sharply higher in tandem with other dollar-denominated commodity prices. Yet near-term resistance at the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 19.375-10.28 decline at 13.834 has thus far held back a further advance. The COMEX contract continues to trade within a narrow range through the past week, and the next price break will likely be decisive. Weekly support at 13.054 has thus far served as a base, but a break below could open up a move to previous congestion near the 12.500 mark.
CFDTrading.com provides free news, trading resources, and market analysis to the trading community.
