Trading thoughts

glide

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‘Do not move unless it is advantageous,
Do not execute unless it is effective,
Do not challenge unless it is critical’

Sun Tzu


When you sleep you sleep, when you eat you eat, when you trade you trade – that’s it.

Ask yourself why you trade, and avoid the obvious answers, such as I want to make money, money is the result; money is just the end product, a reflection of your energy. Think, you can get a steady job, no risk, and make regular good money.

Why do some people play music, even if they don’t become as big as the Beatles? Why do some people become charity workers in Africa?
Your reason for trading will to a large degree determine your level of success. Do you love doing it; does it make you a better person? Be truthful, perhaps you are a gambler by nature and are busily satisfying your addiction right now, Remember the unexamined mind is a wild beast.

There are many factors that can contribute to your failure as a trader and possibly only a few that contribute to your overall success. First, examine your own behavior, examine your own expectations. Do you expect to make a killing every time? Do you expect it to be easy? Do you expect it to be damn easy? Your expectation will determine your results, one way of another. If you’re expecting to make a killing, you probably will at some point, but you will possibly lose the same amount again and again in the process.

This document is deliberately as unstructured as the market; as it is only out of the chaos that islands of high probability arise. Firstly, invest in yourself, it’s easy to be fooled by the massive hype and marketing out there, the systems that are put on auto-pilot to produce vast riches while you sleep or play golf. “Secrets” that have been handed down and are a guarantee for immense wealth, ha. Old ideas re-packaged and sold to the desperate masses that have been used and abused over the years. Mostly, all these ‘new age’ ideas are a re-write of Lao Tzu, ‘The Tao’, now called manifestation, the Secret, the law of attraction and other cleverly marketed buzz words. Search the web and you will find millions of sites that have the answer.

All this sounds pretty depressing, is there absolutely nothing out there that works? Maybe the answer lies within, not some easy, quick-fix that will make it all right. Think about it, you say things like ‘I am a trader’. Who is? Indeed, what is that I am? Where was “ I ” before you were born and where will that “ I “ go after you’re gone?

Everything that exists, exists only in your perception as if you were not there. If you had no consciousness, would it exist at all? One can have no certainty about that. Does a tree falling in a forest, when no one is present, make a noise?

So where is all this leading to, and what has it got to do with trading?

I believe that all exists in the mind, and in the mind alone. The results of your trading are already know to your mind, as your mind is part of a much bigger mind. You are a representation of something much bigger, an all knowing something, an all encompassing something, or maybe nothing.

So, let us assume for a moment that your mind is capable of knowing when to pull the trigger, and when to enjoy your prey and that if you allowed your mind to trade for you and you left everything that clutters it out you would become a master trader.

Alas, our minds are full of all sorts of ideas and notions. Stuff we’ve accumulated over the years, mostly due to our deficient education system, our obsession with defining the indefinable and placing everything in neat little boxes which we can open at will when we need to. I will not go into the background for all this, get yourself a copy of the Tao and convince yourself that your formal education has not been as beneficial as it’s made out to be.

Let me describe some trading scenarios you may be familiar with, bear in mind that I am not going to describe any trading system or methodology as I am writing this for those who have already recognized the need to have a basic system they can follow. Although, having said that, let’s look at a completely non-structured approach to trading first.

We all know that the market goes up, goes down and consolidates, and that even while it consolidates it does not remain static, it may move 5 points up and the 5 points down and so forth. So think of this; you turn on your trading platform and you bring up a chart of any instrument you like or even one you’ve never traded before. You have a quick look at it (lets say a 1 minute chart) and determine that it’s in a minor up trend, so you buy it, you now have a 50/50 chance of winning. It goes up 10 points and you’re happy, you think, hmm, I’ll hang on to this for 100 points, it continues to nudge up slowly, you leave your stop loss order say 15 points below where you entered to give it ‘room to breath’. Suddenly it drops 40 points completely out of the blue as far as you’re concerned, as you have no way of knowing that some big player has just sold his first few lots. Your stop loss is now 3 points away from the price and you think. I’ll give it more room to correct, I can’t be wrong, I refuse to be wrong, and so you move it 20 points down. unbeknown to you, that same big player now unleashes the rest of his position on the market and it drops another 50 points, your stop loss is now toast and you’ve been slipped, so now from being up 30 points, you’re down 50.
Something happens to you now, you get angry. damn this, you think, just a stop run and you buy it again, this time you place the stop 60 points below your entry, so they don’t do it to you again. Other market players small or big think differently, they start selling and there you go again. This process may be familiar to you.

OK, you’re not stupid, you have your system and you look for high probability set ups only. But the same thing happens as described above, except here, you are really furious as you stuck to your rules and still came a cropper. Now your whole stance becomes charged, you start seeing set-ups where none exist, you start your revenge and end up losing double what you were willing (assuming you were) to lose, and the cycle goes on.

Here’s another one, you play your set-up and it works beautifully, you make a killing, more than double what you expected; now your ego is well happy and pleased with itself. You have just made 100 points, so you think, hmmm, I’m in the zone, I’m on a roll. The next set-up arrives and boy, you’re in faster than Speedy Gonzales, but alas it’s a loser; 20 points down. Never mind you think, still up 80. This goes on, and by the end of the day you’re down 100 points, you’re angry as hell and feeling depleted and frustrated. Sound familiar? No? You’re a master trader, close this document and call me and I will take lessons from you.

Still reading? So you know what I’m talking about, good, we can move on from here.
Let’s take a look at how we can correct these scenarios and trade consistently and successfully. These are my views and are based on my own experience, you can take them or leave them, or you can take some and not others, hey, you are a free person.

 Meditate before you trade, why? Because it will stop the incessant chatter going on inside your head, it will stop you thinking things like ‘if I lose this my wife will kill me’ and others…. It will let you focus on the trade itself. The trade has nothing to do with you, it’s neither personal nor impersonal, and it is just what it is. If it’s a good one you will make money, if its not you will have incurred an expense (not a loss) and you will objectively move on. What type of meditation? Any at all, as long as your mind is empty of garbage. I use a form of Zen meditation that I’ve adapted to my own needs, if you’re looking to strictly follow someone else’s discipline , think again, do what suit you, but get the mind to stay quiet.
 Transcend greed and fear, both will harm your trading. It’s often said that when all are greedy, become fearful and vice versa. To me that is nonsense, all you can do is react to market conditions, without any emotion at all. The market does indeed represent a plethora of emotions, and you need to respond to them as you see them happening right in front of your eyes, if you add yours to them you will become just another statistic. The market neither knows nor cares about your hopes, aspirations and needs. The charts you look at are a completely objective picture of what is now.
 Have a clear idea of what your set up is, and how much you are willing to spend to see if it works, coupled with your money management system (I won’t go into that). Simply stated – never spend more than 3-5% of your working capital in any one day, and if you have 3-4 days like that consider taking a break as something is amiss.
 Have a daily target in mind and once you achieve it go and do something else. Unlike most professions, you do not get paid for doing more or spending more time. You are your own boss, be gentle with yourself. If you have to go on after you’ve hit your target and you’ve satisfied yourself with the answer you’ve given, trade tiny lots, as now you are only doing it because you love it and have nothing else to do. Better, get another hobby, go to the gym, read a book or just go for a walk or even an afternoon nap. Why have a target at all? Because your mind then has a clear idea of what’s expected of it and will not come under further pressure. It will have achieved the goal you set for it and as you reward it, it will learn that it has done well and do it again.
 Trading is like hunting, you spend hours in the bush and only pounce when the best opportunity arises, anyone can pull the trigger but only a few can hit the target time and time again, so when you are not pulling the trigger you are still in ‘trading mode, even though it appears that you are doing nothing. In fact you are doing the most difficult part of this business.
 Many books say ‘let your profits run and cut your losses short quickly’, easy to say, less easy to do. Sure, by all means, if the deer gets away, don’t chase it, preserve your energy for a better opportunity; few tigers go hungry for long. As for letting your profits run, here you can employ various methods, you can remove profit in stages as you see it accumulating, or you can remove all at the first sight of any retracement, and the wait for good place to re enter with a very small stop loss, not risking more than a fraction of what you’ve already banked. In either case you may have left 100 points on the table, that’s fine, other tigers need to eat too, feel gratitude for what you’ve got and off to the golf course you go.
 Be thankful for what you get, many others are giving it away. You see, trading is a very natural state, we are always trading, whether it be emotions, feelings, goods or what not, there is enough, more than enough for everyone


So, have I given you any practical advice? Probably, but will it help your trading, that is the question

It will only help if you are willing to accept what is, that’s exactly what the market is, a statement of ‘what is’. If you are part of the herd, you will be prey, if you separate yourself from the herd you will become the hunter.

Finally, to become a ‘master trader’ you must master yourself first, and this is a lot harder than it sounds, there is a sentence in the Tao that says ‘Intelligent people know others but enlightened people know themselves,


Here is a list of books/sites that I find highly useful:


“Tao Te Ching” – Lao Tzu
“Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” Charles Mackay
‘Trading in the Zone” – Mark Douglas
“Fooled by Randomness” Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“Come into my trading room” Alexander Elder
 
Glide - all very good advice. Whats your background that brought you to this site and your post?
 
Glide - all very good advice. Whats your background that brought you to this site and your post?

I used to run an IT business until a few years ago, but have always been trading, mostly option strategies and futures. I have been a member for 4 years or so but not been very active. The last 4 years I have been trading currencies and index futures, every day for a living. Been through quite a bit but am now making an average of 40 pips or points every day, using primarily pivot points, BB and EMAs. I run a small trading chat room with a colleague who is a trader at a city bank in London and it's all going well.
I am very interested in Zen, meditation and it's implication for trading, so just thought I'd share my thoughts fwiw.
Thank you for your interest.
 
Another Classic from Paulds11

Good post / thread, glad to see you put up some suggested reading material ~

thought without reading is dangerous or something along those lines ....

read that some place :)

think this is due for a re-post, hope you don"t mind


Who are you when you trade?
________________________________________
Ive seena lot of posts about tips and tricks in the trade but few that relate to the biggest issue of all.. YOURSELF

Of far more importance than anything else it is YOU who are the focus of the markets. The markets dont like or dislike you they are just there and the markets exist to move monmey between accounts.

If you set stops too short, keep modifying your stop loss, feel that the market is against you or that you are in a fight with other people, or perhaps want revenge for the losses youve sufered... or you still take impulse sucker trades without any notion of the value of your entry/exit and total possible loss IN ADVANCE let me assure you you will oh yes YOU WILL LOSE!!!!

All the above issues are unresolved problems that YOU have to confront. The best way to deal with that is to have a written plan and EXECUTE EVERY signal to the letter like a machine..after which you can then test your results after 3-5- days and only then perhaps modify your apporach. If you arnt doint these things then I assure you you will lose!!!! PERIOD because you have no means of measurement, no means of control and your lack of discipline will kill your account.

You either approach the markets like a machine who measures plans and executes without emotion inc euphoria or you will LOSE!! It takes around 3 weeks minimum to learn this habit of discipline to trade as well as stopping completely any arbitrary entries that send your money to disciplined trader accounts until it begins to become ingrained in your Psych. Most traders dont get this far before they blow out because they thought the markets represented freedom to them but the paradox is they require diligence, discipline and a scientific approach which by the way can be helped greatly by using automated platforms if you know yourself to be weak at sticking to your executions and end up chasing the market...another sucker trade. Are we all getting the message? Traders are not born they are made..and those willing to commit to discipline during the learning phase will most likely end up winners.

Most people simply dont want to face that level of discipline thats why they lose by impulse trades...sucker trades that have no feedback value whatsoever .

you/we have bigger issues to confront and those are first a commitment to be aware of yourself and how and why you cut corners. You must always know how much you will lose before the trade begins... this also helps to keep emotion out of the market.

read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas and forget for now any intense study of the markets.. more knowledge of the markets is NOT what will make you successful.. Knowing yourself and why you do things and then committing to discipline is the path to success...

commit to consistency... this is what I have learned from my bitter experience to date..please please get this message.

by Paul
 
and another

by RogerTheTrader

Excellent post! I've been a chaser, an impulse trader, a wild stop adjuster, a trader lacking clarity, and hence, a loser. But I did not feel undisciplined. I was ill defined.

When I went full-time as a trader in January, I did not understand what I was doing. I think many traders begin that way. They are drawn to the potential of wild financial gains that the markets offer, but do not have an understanding of how they really work. They don't know what to look for, and their trading rules have gaps.

The first quarter of the year, I was a dart thrower. Possibly even a blindfolded thrower. I lost a lot of money. I had rules, but they were wrong. The second quarter, I increased the number of trades, started to pay closer attention to the charts and made a ton of money, but also lost a ton of money - breaking even. My entry rules were better, but I was getting killed on stop losses and routinely entered trades with a less than 2:1 Reward to Risk ratio.

In May and June, I decided to focus on technical analysis. I drew hundreds of lines on charts, narrowed my watch lists, and really refined my rules. I could start to see a change near the end of June. In July and August, I've made phenomenal money, recouping all of my losses and eclipsing my annual goals for this year in just under two months. I'm trading far fewer trades with far less money. I've gained confidence without arrogance. I know that every Monday I become a mortal and I push into the seas of trading without a catch.

Trading is like tiling a floor. The tiles represent the strategies a trader uses. A novice trader spends all of their time selecting tiles - different colors, different sizes, different shapes. Or they have one tile and have no idea how to line it up. From week to week the floor has a different look. The result is usually hideous.

Find a strategy or two that fits your personality. Stick with those. Get good at them. You only need a couple strategies to create large gains.

The next step in tiling the floor is putting in the grout. That is where I was in June. I didn't need the big picture, I needed the grout, the nuance.

The fine tuning I did in my rules has made all the difference.

I trade US stocks and options. But the concepts can be applied to anything with a moving price. The key elements were:

1) Entry/Exit - Price is KING. I trade the chart. The chart reflects all the emotions, news, etc. I enter on bounces or breakouts - only. A bounce is a close above the high of the low day. When you get a dip to support (horizontal, diagonal or a Moving Average), look for an entry when the price closes above the high of the most recent low day - they do not have to be consecutive days. If I miss it, I won't chase the trade. I missed it. I look for the next opportunity. A breakout is when the price pierces a resistance line on 150% of normal volume. I'll enter intraday, if the breakout looks like it will hold. If the breakout is a large gap, it's generaly too late. Exit is based on a target. If the average move was $6 or the range between support and resistance was $6, don't expect the price to make a $10 move. Strength at understanding candlesticks, support and resistance and what they tell you will help with the hardest part of trading - when to get out. If you trade the chart and not Cramer or CNBC or the news or tips, and stick to your rules, you will no longer make impulse trades.

2) Reward to Risk MUST BE 2:1 or better - I was trading upside down for a long time. I followed my rules for stops, but the targets were not realistic and I was losing 3 times what I was making. Now, I can comfortably lose on a trade or two. My winners tend to be larger and push my balance higher. If the potential win is 1.9 and the risk is 1, I won't take the trade. Period. I thas to be at least 2:1 or BETTER. Over time, eliminating the gray areas will prove to be profitable. If your Reward to Risk is 1:1, even if your win ratio is 50%, your account will deplete over time. With a minimum of a 2:1 R:R, you can be right only 35-40% of the time and still make money.

3) Money Management - Fixed fractional risk: I never risk more than 1% of my account on a trade. (For smaller accounts you might go as high as 5%). Correct Position sizing: I divide that risk (loss incurred if stop is triggered) by the price of the stock or option and that give you the quantity. Look at the total cost of the trade. It should not exceed 10% or 20% of your account. You cannot make any money entering every trade with the same quantity. By properly managing your exposure in the market, you can weather the big reversal days. You may get stopped out but you won't be killed.

4) Trading with the trend - It's so simple. But I was diving into trades that I guessed were at a bottom or had peaked. Now, I focus on the overall trend, wait out the retracements and ride the larger trend. I know some traders trade channels up and down. I do that from time to time. But staying away from that "it's gonna go the other way" trade has saved me a lot of money.

5) Understanding Stops - On any instrument that has a BID/ASK spread, you need to be very aware of how and when a stop will fill. For example, I'll use an option. On an ITM option trade, I'll generally set a stop at 30%. For a 4.00 option, the stop would be at 2.80. Where I was losing a fortune was that I did not understand how stops worked. First, stops are triggered on the NEXT PRICE below the ASK and filled on the BID. That means the ASK has to get to the next price below 2.80 (generally about 2.70 or could be lower on a gap move) to even trigger. Since you're filling at the BID, you have to deduct the spread. Let's say the spread is .30 and your stop is triggered at 2.70, it will fill at 2.40. Instead of taking a 30% loss, you are now taking a 40% loss - 33% MORE than you had planned. I was routinely seeing loses of 40%-45% - up to 50% MORE than I had initially planned. This is a losing plan. Losses ARE PART OF THE GAME. Managing how much you lose is the single most important money management key to winning at trading. Plus, If the chart looks like it will not support the move I projected, I get the hell out. No need for a stop to PROVE that I was wrong.

6) Finding Strategies that worked for ME - I began as a day-trader. Didn't work for ME. It might be your bailiwick, though. I found day-trading to be like blackjack. You win, you lose, you win, you lose. It's tedious trying to get ahead. I got out of intraday and looked at the bigger picture and focused on swing trading. I switched from stocks to option trading. I could risk the same amount on an option trade as with a stock trade, but through leverage, make much more money on wins. I added spread trading. I use the spreads to create a base income each month, putting less pressure on my swing trading. I can afford to be more selective. I let the trades come to me, instead of chasing them.

7) Committing to education - I'll be trading until my last breath. Until that day, I will always label myself as a student of trading.

8) Forming a support group - I knew that trading was a solitary venture. You're at your computer alone, with only television commentary to break the silence. I sought other traders, I sought intelligent boards, I sought instructors. I have a nice group of online traders that span the North American continent, but also a nice group of local traders (in Las Vegas, Neveda) that I have daily exchange with. We meet every two weeks. I've found a few other groups that I join occassionally, but their goals are different than mine, so I focus on the traders that trade in a similar style to my own. I openly share my trades with the best of the group and listen intently to their commentaries and critiques. A tight group of us each selected a Top 10 list of stocks to track. We offer each other regular analysis. You only have two eyes. By forming a group, you exponentially expand your eyes on the market. Each person brings a unique set of strengths and weaknesses. You can't do this alone.

Trading is a personal quest. You have to find what works for you. I'm comfortable with $2,000 or $5,000 swings each day because I have confidence in taking what the chart gives me and where it might go. That might drive you to drink. Find strategies that fit you. Make rules and refine them. STICK TO THE RULES. Learn. Find Support... and most importantly - TRADE. If you're paper trading, trade like a maniac. In any sport, in practice sessions they will go over the plays of the game over and over and over. In a game, you only get so many chances. Make mistakes, lose money, analyze, move on. And Trade2Win!!!!
__________________
Roger The Trader
Las Vegas, NV

Keep your risk low and your profits high.

"The best lessons in life are found on the hard road... and all the really cool people."
 
by RogerTheTrader
Correct Position sizing: I divide that risk (loss incurred if stop is triggered) by the price of the stock or option and that give you the quantity.

I think this is correct only when your stop is at 100% of price. If your stop is S% you better use:

Quantity = amount at risk/ [(S x P)/100] where P is the price.

For example, if P = 10, the account size is 100,000 and you want to risk 1% of that then:

Quantity = 1,000/10 = 100 according to you. That means you lose 1% only if P goes to zero.

But if you want to have a stop at S% of price P, then the correct formula is:

Quantity = 1,000/(10 x S/100)

For example, if S is 10% then Quantity = 1,000.

With your formula you always assume that stop is 100% and you underestimate quantity by a factor 100/s.

Just some thoughts.

Alex
 
commit to consistency.

This is a strong and clear message I totally agree with, no point making 100 points on Monday and then giving it all back on Tuesday. I set myself a target of 40 pips/points a day (I trade currencies, oil, Nat gas and index futures mostly), and once the target is exceeded I take a break, meditate or go to the gym. I then only look for perfect entries and play them at 1/4 of my usual size for the rest of the day, never allowing myself to drop below the target. If the target is met exactly I stop for the day. Today with the big trends was easy so quadrupled today target, tomorrow is going to be a relaxed day :)
 
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