Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader

Senior member
2,927 127
#31
Stage 4 - examples

Stage 4 - The Declining Stage. Avoid on the long side.

Key
(+) Outstanding pattern in that Stage.
(–) Unexciting pattern in that Stage.
 

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isatrader

Senior member
2,927 127
#32
Stage 4B - examples

Stage 4B - Late in downtrend. Much too soon to consider buying.

Key
(+) Outstanding pattern in that Stage.
(–) Unexciting pattern in that Stage.
 

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vali83

Junior member
15 0
#34
Hi isa,

in Stan's Global Trend Alert document, he performs a stage analysis on sectors. I am strugling for some time to find some symbols for each sector, so i can perform stage analysis as well. Do you happen to know a free resource on this? For example what is the symbol for Chemicals Diversified, so i can use it in bloomberg.com, or stockcharts.com to be able to see the chart on that particular group.

Thanks
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,927 127
#35
Hi @vali83

In Stockcharts search box just search for the $ sign and all the US sectors are there. Here's the link
StockCharts.com - Free Charts - Symbol Search

Or for for UK 350 Sectors here's the list which you can get historical data from yahoo finance Yahoo! UK & Ireland Finance - FTSE, Stock Exchange, Mortgages, Loans & More
So for example just put ^NMX0530 into the search for Oil and Gas Producers etc:

^NMX0530 FTSE 350 Sector Oil & Gas Producers
^NMX0570 FTSE 350 Sector Oil Equipment Services &
^NMX1350 FTSE 350 Sector Chemicals
^NMX1730 FTSE 350 Sector Forestry & Paper
^NMX1750 FTSE 350 Sector Industrial Metals
^NMX1770 FTSE 350 Sector Mining
^NMX2350 FTSE 350 Sector Construction & Materials
^NMX2710 FTSE 350 Sector Aerospace & Defense
^NMX2720 FTSE 350 Sector General Industrials
^NMX2730 FTSE 350 Sector Electronic & Electrical Equipment
^NMX2750 FTSE 350 Sector Industrial Engineering
^NMX2770 FTSE 350 Sector Industrial Transportation
^NMX2790 FTSE 350 Sector Support Services
^NMX3350 FTSE 350 Sector Automobiles & Parts
^NMX3530 FTSE 350 Sector Beverages
^NMX3570 FTSE 350 Sector Food Producers
^NMX3720 FTSE 350 Sector Household Goods
^NMX3760 FTSE 350 Sector Personal Goods
^NMX3780 FTSE 350 Sector Tobacco
^NMX4530 FTSE 350 Sector Health Care Equipment & Services
^NMX4570 FTSE 350 Sector Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
^NMX5330 FTSE 350 Sector Food & Drug Retailers
^NMX5370 FTSE 350 Sector General Retailers
^NMX5550 FTSE 350 Sector Media
^NMX5750 FTSE 350 Sector Travel & Leisure
^NMX6530 FTSE 350 Sector Fixed Line Telecommunications
^NMX6570 FTSE 350 Sector Mobile Telecommunications
^NMX7530 FTSE 350 Sector Electricity
^NMX7570 FTSE 350 Sector Gas Water & Multiutilities
^NMX8350 FTSE 350 Sector Banks
^NMX8530 FTSE 350 Sector Nonlife Insurance
^NMX8570 FTSE 350 Sector Life Insurance
^NMX8670 FTSE 350 Sector Real Estate Investment Trusts
^NMX8770 FTSE 350 Sector Financial Services
^NMX8980 FTSE 350 Sector Equity Investment Instruments
^NMX9530 FTSE 350 Sector Software & Computer Services
^NMX9570 FTSE 350 Sector Technology Hardware & Equipment
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,927 127
#39
US Treasuries Stage Analysis

I like to keep an eye on the Treasuries charts as they have a good inverse relationship with the stock market. So I've updated my stage analysis of the US 30 year Treasuries and included the 10 year US Treasuries charts as well.

On the US 30 Year Treasuries weekly chart, price pulled back to the 30 week MA four weeks ago and has had a good bounce since. However, it is yet to make a new high, volume has been below average and relative performance vs the S&P 500 is weakening, so I'm considering it in late Stage 2B at the moment as the moving average is still trending higher.

On the daily chart it is much weaker and has moved into Stage 3 with price trying to break back above the trendline, but so far failing. It's in a Stage 3 range so it could go either way with a break above 147 or break below 135. However, if it fails to make a new high soon then I'd favour it managing to break below 135.

The US 10 Year Treasuries are showing the same pattern so I'd be looking for a break below 127 if it can't make a new high soon.
 

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isatrader

Senior member
2,927 127
#40
Apple (AAPL) Stage Analysis

Personally I think AAPL looks very interesting currently, as it looks like it wants to test the long term trendline - which is currently around the 355 area. But it is also just above an area of strong support which could limit the current down move.

The monthly chart shows the steady volume going into AAPL over the last two years. Which is not the same as the parabolic move in 2007 imo. So this current top isn't a blow off top like that was, as the volume has grown steadily over the last two years - so there is a lot less speculative money which I think is a good sign.

Below are my charts
 

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#41
Hey, I have a question. I also read the book and want to explore the techniques discussed further. However, an important concept is relative strength. On stockcharts.com and yahoo finance, they provide you with the RSI, which is a little different I think from relative strength as defined in the book. can you please explain to me how to find out what the relative strength is as defined in the book? thanks so much. Awesome thread, keep it up.
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,927 127
#42
Thanks kwang2311, the relative strength indicator used is not the RSI that you find on stockcharts.com. It was a proprietary method calculated on the paid for Mansfield charts that he used. After exploring the issue myself for a while I realised that it was actually the relative performance of the stock versus the market, but turned into an indicator. So to create your own version of this you need to divide the price of the stock by the S&P 500. For example on stockcharts you can do this by selecting the price or price performance indicator and then putting AAPL:$SPX if you wanted Apple divided by the S&P 500. Which then shows you the relative performance vs the market. On my chart software I change the start date. So I adjust it to the last major low. Hope that helps.

Here's the link to the stockcharts page that should help: technical_indicators price_relative and I've attached an example chart from stockcharts below setup in a similar way to the book, but with an EMA as stockcharts doesn't have a weighted moving average.
 

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isatrader

Senior member
2,927 127
#44
Can you explain why you used an exponential moving average instead of a simple moving average, and what the differences of the two are?
In the book he talks about the 30 week moving average (MA) in all of his basic examples. However, the Mansfield charts that he used for all the actual examples used a 30 week weighted moving average. Which is important as it is more sensitive to the recent prices, whereas a simple moving average gives an equal weighting to all the prices over the last 30 weeks.

I used an exponential MA in the stockcharts chart example, as they don't have a weighted MA, but it is the closest they have to it.

So if you can, use the 30 Week Weighted Moving Average. As that is what he was looking at in the book.
 

leonarda

Established member
589 23
#45
Hi isa,
I've read Stan's book numerous times now, and must admit it is brilliant. Over the last year or so I have been fiddling with shorter timeframes, but have come to the conclusion that my attempts boil down to "account death by a 1000 cuts!" So I am now following a more faithful Stan methodology, and so far with some good success. I use my own software to calculate the 30 week weighted moving average as per Stan's reference Mansfield charts.

Cheers!