Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

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isatrader

Senior member
2,928 128
looking at the chart i meant july..
do you broadly agree with my chart
Yep it looks almost there. Although during the 2010 Stage 3 area on your chart it dipped into Stage 4 briefly and then had a brief stage 1 before breaking out into a new Stage 2.
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,928 128
have you got a detailed stage analysis chart including 1a 3a etc etc..i found one the other day but can't find it now..
Here's the breakdown of the stages:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/134944-stan-weinsteins-stage-analysis-3.html#post1695880

There isn't a diagram showing 1a, 1, 1b etc - just the simple diagram of the four major stages. So how I've been learning the stages is looking at the global trend alert newsletter from 2005 here:

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/134944-stan-weinsteins-stage-analysis.html#post1675626

As it has the whole S&P 500's stocks from Feb 2005 stages, plus all the sectors. So you can look back in your own charting software at the hundreds of individual stocks and will then know what to look for better.

Hope that helps
 

theblackmamba

Active member
106 3
cool. thanks.. you did want someone to correspond with..hope i not going on toooooo much....
you watching anything?
wopuld you agree ATK is similar to aml..on daily needs to clear 640, and on weekly about 1a?
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,928 128
cool. thanks.. you did want someone to correspond with..hope i not going on toooooo much....
you watching anything?
wopuld you agree ATK is similar to aml..on daily needs to clear 640, and on weekly about 1a?
No worries, it's good to talk to someone about it. Like I said it will help me focus and learn myself as I think you always learn better in an interactive manner. Although I do have to pop out for some physio in a bit, so will be offline after this for a few hours, as I have a broken collarbone at the moment.

Precious metals are my main focus at the moment. There's a short covering rally today across the board so I'm watching how they react at key resistance levels this week.

ATK.L does look similar to AML.L - the weekly is on the 30 week MA, but needs to have a good close above it to move into Stage 1A, as it's at the critical point where it can easily reverse to continue in Stage 4.

On the daily 640 looks a good level to clear, but look at the weekly as there's some strong resistance there from January's low, so that might take a while to overcome as the resistance is within the last year.

Relative strength and volume are more positive than AML.L though.
 

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isatrader

Senior member
2,928 128
I noticed both of your picks are stocks that have fallen hard like the market has and so have resistance to fight through still. A big component of the method relative performance versus the market. You want to buy strength and sell weakness, so I'll give you an example of one of my current trades to illustrate this. The market trend was down when I bought this, so it breaks the rules a bit, but I think it's a good example of a good relative strength stock breaking out and currently retesting the breakout level. It might fail because the market is still negative, but has potential to move higher because of the size of the base and lack of resistance above it.
 

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theblackmamba

Active member
106 3
ouch. my mum broke her shoulder a 6 weeks ago, and they unable to even consider operation for another 6 weeks.. :(
i can see why you bought rr. the other day.
 

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theblackmamba

Active member
106 3
what you think of this as a potential traders entrance... had a 4 then a pullback to 30wma.. now if starts falling dsay below 350 with stop above 383?
 

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theblackmamba

Active member
106 3
wat you think to ppc? on weekly broke out stage 1?, then pulled back, now looking to go off again.
only thing is breakout volume was low?
do you find uk volume on breakouts work? i must admit in all years i traded ive ignored it as there not a lot of it in general unlike usa shares
 

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isatrader

Senior member
2,928 128
what you think of this as a potential traders entrance... had a 4 then a pullback to 30wma.. now if starts falling dsay below 350 with stop above 383?
It's an interesting one. The Oil & Gas Producers Sector is outperforming the market currently and has pulled back to support. PMO.L however, is under performing it's sector, but performing inline with the market - which is in a downtrend. On the daily the trendline support is around 345 and on the weekly there's a rising trendline at 320, so I'm not sure I'd personally take it as the risk reward ratio is only about 1:1 for a short term play unless you bring you stop in tighter above the daily 30 week MA around 365.

So it's a weak stock, in a strong sector, in a weak market. So I think the method would say pass, as the key is to only try and pick the A+ winners and avoid the mediocre ones. It might go down, but if you are using the method you'd want a weak stock, in a weak sector, in a weak market for shorting candidates I think.
 

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theblackmamba

Active member
106 3
not sure if it interests you, but have gone through about the top1000 uk shares this afternoon, and these are the ones i found interesting..

long aey aht aie arm avon bkg car cct cpp dia fenr ged hyr inppipr itm jlf pay phnx prv pure qq ror weir wtm.

short aal abc afr ashm bba bee blnd blt boy bram brby brwm bvic cbg ccc chw clln cne cpp cscg csrt dcg dia dtc dvo efm enq fcs fdsa fgp fum gpor gss has hfd hl hlma hmso hoc hri iem ihg imi inf ipf itrk jdw jmf kaz kmr lad land lse lsp mgcr mjw mks mpi mrc mul nex nii oml pmo rsl rsw safe sdl sgro shb sks smdr smin srp sthr stob sxs tem tmpl tpk utg vct wpp xar...
 

isatrader

Senior member
2,928 128
not sure if it interests you, but have gone through about the top1000 uk shares this afternoon, and these are the ones i found interesting..

long aey aht aie arm avon bkg car cct cpp dia fenr ged hyr inppipr itm jlf pay phnx prv pure qq ror weir wtm.

short aal abc afr ashm bba bee blnd blt boy bram brby brwm bvic cbg ccc chw clln cne cpp cscg csrt dcg dia dtc dvo efm enq fcs fdsa fgp fum gpor gss has hfd hl hlma hmso hoc hri iem ihg imi inf ipf itrk jdw jmf kaz kmr lad land lse lsp mgcr mjw mks mpi mrc mul nex nii oml pmo rsl rsw safe sdl sgro shb sks smdr smin srp sthr stob sxs tem tmpl tpk utg vct wpp xar...
What you need to do to filter them further is sort the sectors by relative strength. Attached is the list as of 25/11 sorted by strongest sector at the top to weakest at the bottom since the October low.
 

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isatrader

Senior member
2,928 128
wat you think to ppc? on weekly broke out stage 1?, then pulled back, now looking to go off again.
only thing is breakout volume was low?
Poor relative strength, a lot of resistance to work through and no 2x the 4 week average volume increase on the breakout. I'd say it's now in Stage 1B. It might go higher, but it doesn't meet the methods requirements.

do you find uk volume on breakouts work? i must admit in all years i traded ive ignored it as there not a lot of it in general unlike usa shares
US stocks are easier to see the volume changes on the straight volume chart like your previous good example, but I think it still works on UK stocks, but because of the thinner volumes I use cumulative force index to decipher it, by looking for a build in volume above it's moving average and positive divergence.
 

theblackmamba

Active member
106 3
I noticed both of your picks are stocks that have fallen hard like the market has and so have resistance to fight through still. A big component of the method relative performance versus the market. You want to buy strength and sell weakness, so I'll give you an example of one of my current trades to illustrate this. The market trend was down when I bought this, so it breaks the rules a bit, but I think it's a good example of a good relative strength stock breaking out and currently retesting the breakout level. It might fail because the market is still negative, but has potential to move higher because of the size of the base and lack of resistance above it.
must admit as a rule i do prefer the rolls royce type chart to the aml, atk eg i gave you..