Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

isatrader

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Stage 2A - examples

Here's some more Stage 2A examples from the 2nd March 2012, which is considered to be early in uptrend stage. Again these are not recommendations, just examples to help us learn to define Stage 2A more accurately. As remember you need to consider all the other elements necessary from the method before putting on a trade.
 

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isatrader

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Thanks for the charts to help us to understand the various stages.
No worries mfoconnor, I hope it helps you and welcome to the thread. I've noticed you lurking for a little while, so thanks for contributing.

The charts have certainly given me a lot to think about, as I've come to conclusion that I've been a bit too cautious with my initial Stage 2 entry points from looking through them all.

I've got a few hundred examples of Stage 2 and Stage 2B to go through. So I'll pick 25 or so of each and post those as well in the coming days.
 

isatrader

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Stage 2 Examples

Attached is some examples from 2nd March 2012 of Stage 2 - which is the Advancing Stage.
 

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isatrader

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Stage 2B Examples

Attached is some examples from 2nd March 2012 of Stage 2B, which is classed as: Getting late in uptrend.
 

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isatrader

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Attached are this weeks major charts for analysis.
 

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isatrader

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Gold Stage Analysis

Gold broke below it's 200 day moving average today moving it into Stage 3B imo, as the 30 week SMA has also turned down. There's clearly significant resistance down at the 1550 area, which is the bottom of the large stage 3 range imo. So that seems the logical target for a short term move, but it would need to start closing below there to enter Stage 4A I believe.
 

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isatrader

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US 30 Year Treasuries Stage Analysis

An important chart to note if you trade stocks due to it's mostly inverse correlation (that I highlighted had changed to Stage 3A- a few weeks ago) is the US 30 year Treasuries. The last two days have seen the confirmed breakdown into Stage 3, with today's increased volume moving it lower and managing to close below the 200 day simple moving average.

The 135 area now becomes the Stage 3 lower support level to watch as a weekly close below that would signal a Stage 4A breakdown imo. However, the measured move from the four month range gives a rough target of 134 in the short term, so that gives extra weight to the 135 level holding up on a closing basis on the first attempt at breaking it.

So with that level rapidly approaching we could see a reversal there and a retest back up towards the breakdown level, which would pressure stocks in the short term causing a correction. However, if treasuries then rolled over and moved to break down again, the Stage 4A breakdown could be the catalyst for the next leg of the stock rally imo.
 

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lplate

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Re: Gold Stage Analysis

Gold broke below it's 200 day moving average today moving it into Stage 3B imo, as the 30 week SMA has also turned down. There's clearly significant resistance down at the 1550 area, which is the bottom of the large stage 3 range imo. So that seems the logical target for a short term move, but it would need to start closing below there to enter Stage 4A I believe.
isa, thank you for that analysis and agree a stage 4 is a long way off. There might be a retest of the underside of the 200 day sma first, and there is also some past activity at 1600-1625 area, so it could stall there also before the 1500s.
Commentators have noted the recent breakdown since 29 Feb in the normal correlation of the $, so it is an unusual goldilocks period, suiting Obama, the US, Europe and China quite well. It won't last, I think, as it is based on hot money, so Stage 4 might never be reached. That is why I might sit out any thought of shorting gold and instead it looks more an opportunity to build up a long-term holding.
http://tinyurl.com/6qp2azr

PS thank you also for your excellent work on obataining and studying the recent GTA sample. That must have taken you ages, and is really high quality.
 
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isatrader

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2,928 128
Re: Gold Stage Analysis

Commentators have noted the recent breakdown since 29 Feb in the normal correlation of the $, so it is an unusual goldilocks period, suiting Obama, the US, Europe and China quite well. It won't last, I think, as it is based on hot money, so Stage 4 might never be reached. That is why I might sit out any thought of shorting gold and instead it looks more an opportunity to build up a long-term holding.
I'd be wary of the commentators that think the correlation with the Dollar since 29 Feb is unusual, as in fact, the normal relationship for Gold and the Dollar is an inverse relationship - which you will see from the long and short term metrics at the bottom on the attached chart. You'll see from the 20 day correlation that it sometimes breaks down and they move together, like in early to mid 2010, but this is not the norm as that's the fear trade. So the fact that the Dollar is rising and Gold is falling is the sign of a more normal market condition.
 

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isatrader

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Major charts for analysis

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 continued continued to push to new 52 week highs, but the Russell 2000 Small Caps failed to confirm the move and didn't manage to break out also.

The Dollar Index had more than twice it's normal volume and moved higher before pulling back to close the week slighter lower just above the 50 day MA. This had an effect in the Gold market also, with Gold breaking below it's 200 day MA on the Dollar strength early in the week, but it didn't manage to recover and instead had two inside days and settled very close to it's 3 and half year trend line - as you'll see on the weekly chart. So a big test for Gold this coming week, as a weekly close below the trend line would likely encourage some more selling. But, if it instead reverses and closes back above the 200 day MA, then the buyers may come back in.

Copper still continues to be range bound in the upper portion of it's Stage 1 zone. The 50 day MA and 200 day MA will cross on Monday which is another positive, but it still needs to breakout and have a weekly close above $4 to hit Stage 2A imo. Which would be a further boost to stocks if that happens.

The major move this week though was in the treasuries markets, with the 10 year and the 30 year breaking down and moving into Stage 3. Both closed below their 200 day MA and near the bottom the Stage 3 ranges.

So another interesting week ahead
 

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isatrader

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US Industry Sectors

Attached are the latest US Industry Sector Charts. I noted on the 3rd March update that the Financials XLF closed right on it's Stage 2A breakout point, with the Mansfield relative strength improving as well. So with the whole sector moving from Stage 1B to 2A that it was a good time to start looking at individual plays from the group. This has played out well over the last two weeks with Financials leading the move higher and I think is a good example of the method getting you to focus on the right area at the right time, as multiple banking names were showing up in the Stage 1B examples on 2nd March.
 

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isatrader

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UK FTSE 350 Sectors

There was four Stage 2A breakouts to note this week in the UK FTSE 350 sectors. One was in NMX2350 (FTSE 350 Sector Construction & Materials). So it's a good time to look through the individual names in the sector, which are listed here: Construction & Materials Sector Constituents and another was in NMX8670 (FTSE 350 Sector Real Estate Investment Trusts) which the individual names can be found here: Real Estate Investment Trusts Sector Constituents. NMX8770 (FTSE 350 Sector Financial Services) also moved into Stage 2A and it's individual names can be found here: Financial Services Sector Constituents. Finally NMX8530 (FTSE 350 Sector Nonlife Insurance) is now in Stage 2A and it's individual names can be found here: Nonlife Insurance Sector Constituents

NMX8350 - FTSE 350 Sector Banks moved into Stage 1B and is very close to breaking out into Stage 2A, so it's a good time to look at individual names in that sector as well. Which can be found here: Banks Sector Constituents

Attached are the UK FTSE 350 Sector charts and the list ordered by the Mansfield relative Strength reading as well.
 

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isatrader

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S&P 500 - Top 9 holdings by market capitalization

The S&P 500 is not an equal weight index, so all of the 500 stocks don't get an equal vote in it's daily movements. Instead, a small number of the largest cap stocks influence how the index moves the most. So I thought it would be a good idea to start following the top 9 holdings by market capitalization as they make up nearly 20% of the index and so will give clues to where it's going to go.

Stage Ratings

Apple (AAPL) - Stage 2B
Exxon Mobil (XOM) - Stage 2B
Intl Business Machines (IBM) - Stage 2B
Chevron (CVX) - Stage 2B
Microsoft (MSFT) - Stage 2B
General Electric (GE) - Stage 2
Procter & Gamble (PG) - Stage 2B
AT&T (T) - Stage 2B
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Stage 3

Attached is the charts
 

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