Skim, what do you think of this?

[stoploss please]

Yucky yucky

I have been trying to find this bottom all afternoon but every time I think I have got it, I get whipped out (academically). I need to keep counting those LHs and LLS.

Andy

Keep repeating to yourself, " A trend is in place until the weight of the evidence points otherwise". Or something like that.

Rossored,

Nice short but I thought you would hit it on the break of 3 and not 2. Tighter SL.

I have not had readybrek for ages. Do you still get that orange glow or is that Sunny Delight.

Lambchops

Thanks for the complement mate.

 

[Bill]

Oatman

Have a look at http://www.altavest.com/candlesticks.html and in particular 'doji stars' as against just doji.

Bill

 

[Skimbleshanks]

You're looking at the doji, but you are not 'seeing' it in relation to the bars sitting on either side of it.

The dojis I marked have the highest high, and the bar on the left of it and on the right of it both have lower highs. So they are sitting proud at the top.

A doji is just showing you that bears = bulls, ie neither is stronger so they are equally matched. Therefore one of them has to give way, and that's the direction you trade.

 

[oatman]

OK

 

[stoploss please]

Today lesson

Todays lesson for me is do not look for it if it is not there. I spent all afternoon trying to find this bottom that I stoped doing what I should be doing. To keep counting those LHs and LLs. On the chart it looks clear. In hindsight you may say it is easy to spot. However, if I kept marking those LL, I should have been shorting on the break of the next LH. Another one to remember.

 

[stoploss please]

Some ideas for next week

Just had a quick look at the 60 minute chart and came out with this possible scenario. This reminds me, I have to get to grips with Elliot Wave this weekend. GREAT.

 

[Lambchops]

Skim - When looking for intraday support/resistance points on a chart. How far back on the charts do you go? ie.1 day/5 days/1month etc.

 

[oatman]

The gap may well be filled, but why do you think it will then go back up?

 

[stoploss please]

Will we see a bounce at the gap

Hi Oatman

It gets more interesting. The gap is at the 50% retracement.
I suppose we should be ready to go long at the following levels
if the market shows it is about to reverse. However, as Skim would say, only trade what you see. If the market is going south, stick with it.

38% 1028.68
50% 1020.84
62% 1013.00

We are now at the 25% level so it could turn now.

Cheers
Andy

 

[Skimbleshanks]

Lambchops:

For horizontal intraday support/resistance points I tend to go back over the preceeding two days. Those are for the ones we bounce between during the day. The reason that happens is because those are the points the big boys' buying/selling programs kick in.

Anything which sticks out, ie has a long tail with lots of air either side of it, is the only thing usually worth noting on a longer term chart over a couple of weeks. And the reason they are worth watching, is because everybody is watching them.

 

[oatman]

SLP, fair enough. It's just that I sensed your posts were biased to the upside. If I form a view, I force myself to make the opposite argument. It encourages you to look deeper at your analysis.

 

[stoploss please]

Oatman

Good point. I suppose what I am trying to do is prepare myself if a scenario pans out. In that way, I will not be surprised.

How do you read it.
Cheers
Andy

 

[FTSE Beater]

Hi SLP

I would be very careful trying to predict which way the market is going to go, especially if your trading on a short-term basis.

The problem is that if you see upside and the market goes down - you confuse your brain. It's to do with the strength of the minds imagination. When you get confused like this it gives the effect of a rabbit caught in the headlights.

The other scenario, is that if you think the market will go long - you get the set-up and pull the trigger so your long in the market and it turns. The same thing happens, it gets confusing and the brain can't understand why something you believe would happen, hasn't happened - if that makes sense

HTH

 

[stoploss please]

You have a point

FTSE Beater

As I am trying to trade of 5 and 10 minute charts, I hope that as a trend develops, I will stay on the right side of it.

The sixty minute chart is only used to keep me open to the possibilities of what can happen. I am using the previous trough as the apex of an inverse H&S. If the retracement is more severe than the 62%, the current peak may then take on the guise of the apex of a bearish H&S pattern.

Being open to all scenarios and only acting once the weight of the evidence points to one is the qualification that should be applied. At the same time, I take on board your point that I should not let my opinion cloud what is actually happening to the price action.

Kind regards
Andy

 

[neil]

SL

So you are now short below 104000?

 

[stoploss please]

Neil

Right now I am long of a ham sandwich and a glass of coke. This posting was only my opinion of what could happen if various scenarios pan out. Both patterns are possible and both could fail. What I am trying to do is to try and find what are the possibilities for the longer term patterns and then apply fib and S&R to find the where the turning points might be. As I only trade intra day, it is good to know how the overall picture looks and how it could develop. However I do not really think you can predict how a days trading will pan out as there are too many unknowns predict.

Kind regards
Andy

 

[ChartMan]

SL, I think that approach is totally correct. It's very important, that if you analyse a given chart, you sit objectively on both sides of the fence.

 

[oatman]

All OK then. We got to both sides of the fence....in the end :cheesy:

 

[hampy]

Hi all,
I've noticed comments on other threads that when trading ES you should chart the Dow as the patterns often show up better on the Dow chart.
However, I notice that most of the charts posted on this thread are ES.
Any advice
hampy

 

[Skimbleshanks]

I predominantly use ES because that is what I am trading. However I do also have a very small 5 min Dow chart tucked into the corner of my charting software (spread across 2 monitors).

I've found that although the patterns appear in both charts, on some days it is easier to see on Dow rather than ES, and vice versa on other days. So by having both charts I get the best of both worlds!