Random or Competition?

wackypete2

Legendary member
10,229 2,055
Yes, that would only apply to those who believe it to be true.....a believe isn't a fact is it?
There is a saying....."one who use his eyes, one is clearly blind"

If one can see, the markets are not random each and every day!

Why do you mention blind people in every thread you post in?
Personally, I can't see any reason for it. Maybe you can sight specific examples? I've got my eye on you and I'll be on the lookout for your next post.

Peter
 

Triggerfish

Active member
229 14
No. I mean, name a product that is trending
A product?.....well, what ever it is, I don't really follow it because it is there to take money from you.....not something that I fall for.
What do you have in mind that you wish to discuss?.....why don't you suggest one?
 

Triggerfish

Active member
229 14
This is why I wanted a definition of random. Otherwise it goes around in circles.

That something is random is a perception. We typically say random when we can't predict in advance with certainty. Whether there is an underlying cause or not is only relevant if we can perceive this cause and its effect and come to a certainty. Otherwise it is still random. Trigger, you mentioned trains. Trains arriving at the station is random. I can guess, but I can't be sure. If I see the train timetable, I can probably make a better guess, but I can't be certain. If I see the live update telling me it will arrive in 2 mins, I can make an even better estimate, but again, I can't be sure. Of course there are people driving the trains, and to them, seems like it isn't random at all, but even the train driver doesn't always know when it will arrive - and perhaps it doesn't matter to him the exact second he arrives. For the people on the platform it's still random.

So if the movement of a given trading instrument is not random, then it can be predicted with certainty. If you have some other meaning of random, we will disagree at this point.

If you claim it is not random, then there is a task for you. Take any instrument you like, and any timeframe, and predict the exact high low and close of the next 50 bars. If you can't, what is that telling you?
Interesting.....BUT
Am not sure if that is a good definition of random.....maybe we need to agree on this first?

Random is not meant to be predictive but it can be predicted in a given short period of time by chance. For over a long period of time, consistently is the issue and usually cannot be achieved.
When we say predictive, am not sure if that would include the exact price of the instrument in question because this is irrelevant, it is not the exact points/price that needs to be predicted that truly defines something not random. Because it is not the purpose itself to predict the exact prices for one to succeed, it is the pips gained which requires a movement in prices between buying and selling and to do that consistently.

I believe you have rightly noted about the train about to arrive at a station and quote: "perhaps it doesn't matter to him the exact second he arrives".
In trading, it is pips that makes dollars and not the actual price it hits.....a train will make money by moving but not the station itself.....as movements are pips.....so prediction is about the movement in price and being able to take advantage from it.

The train analogy I posted earlier is a message which requires some thought and analysis to understand.
In the physical world, the train station, the train and most important of all, the train driver are separate forms.
In the trading world, these are formed together on a chart.....

I think the hardest thing is this, when one is standing on earth and looking at earth itself, it looks flat so we say it is flat 100%.
When we shift our perspective from the earth say on the moon, we see earth differently.....round.
The point here is to illustrate what we see earth only as an illusion although it looks real on the same plane but looks different on another plane.
The markets are the same, when we use our eyes, we are on the same plane looking at it therefore it is in fact an illusion.....but we do not agree because we do not see it as an illusion.
It is only when we see this illusion, we will understand.....man.....it is so difficult to explain this!
 

D70

Established member
839 195
A product?.....well, what ever it is, I don't really follow it because it is there to take money from you.....not something that I fall for.
What do you have in mind that you wish to discuss?.....why don't you suggest one?

We're not getting very far in this discussion are we?
You want to describe everything in cliches and cant name a product that you would describe as "trending".
 

Triggerfish

Active member
229 14
We're not getting very far in this discussion are we?
You want to describe everything in cliches and cant name a product that you would describe as "trending".
Because in reality, there is nothing that is trending.....that too is an illusion.....just being honest really.

But if you want to discuss.....how about the iPhone / apple?
 

D70

Established member
839 195
Because in reality, there is nothing that is trending.....that too is an illusion.....just being honest really.

But if you want to discuss.....how about the iPhone / apple?

Rrrrr. Somehow we have arrived at the same place.
J'agree.

Apple iphone..... care, I do not.
 

Triggerfish

Active member
229 14
Apple iphone..... care, I do not.
Interesting, very good.....another thing, although totally out of context of this thread but may require another thread itself.....this "I" doesn't really exist either, and I wonder if you see this too?
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
Interesting.....BUT
Am not sure if that is a good definition of random.....maybe we need to agree on this first?

Random is not meant to be predictive but it can be predicted in a given short period of time by chance. For over a long period of time, consistently is the issue and usually cannot be achieved.
When we say predictive, am not sure if that would include the exact price of the instrument in question because this is irrelevant, it is not the exact points/price that needs to be predicted that truly defines something not random. Because it is not the purpose itself to predict the exact prices for one to succeed, it is the pips gained which requires a movement in prices between buying and selling and to do that consistently.

I believe you have rightly noted about the train about to arrive at a station and quote: "perhaps it doesn't matter to him the exact second he arrives".
In trading, it is pips that makes dollars and not the actual price it hits.....a train will make money by moving but not the station itself.....as movements are pips.....so prediction is about the movement in price and being able to take advantage from it.

The train analogy I posted earlier is a message which requires some thought and analysis to understand.
In the physical world, the train station, the train and most important of all, the train driver are separate forms.
In the trading world, these are formed together on a chart.....

I think the hardest thing is this, when one is standing on earth and looking at earth itself, it looks flat so we say it is flat 100%.
When we shift our perspective from the earth say on the moon, we see earth differently.....round.
The point here is to illustrate what we see earth only as an illusion although it looks real on the same plane but looks different on another plane.
The markets are the same, when we use our eyes, we are on the same plane looking at it therefore it is in fact an illusion.....but we do not agree because we do not see it as an illusion.
It is only when we see this illusion, we will understand.....man.....it is so difficult to explain this!

This is all fine, and yes you have a different idea about random than I do (and perhaps D70). Which is why we can think the same thing about the market, and yet disagree on the randomness issue. Your view is fine to me about randomness, although it could be defined a little more clearly.

Many people thought the Earth was not flat even thousands of years ago. They used their eyes and observed certain phenomena which only made sense if the earth was curved somehow. They did not need to go to the moon. Just use their eyes and their brain.

I agree the train, the station and the driver are different. Is there only one mind that drives the train? Why do the passengers of the train accept this all and get on board the train? Shouldn't there be some sort of time-schedule to keep the passengers on the train or those waiting at the stations happy?

this "I" doesn't really exist either

You did mention you would explain this in another thread some time ago. So please do so here.
 

Triggerfish

Active member
229 14
Why do you mention blind people in every thread you post in? Personally, I can't see any reason for it. Maybe you can sight specific examples?
Because we do not see reality.
There are examples here in this thread, the question is whether you understand the true meaning in them or not.
Do you understand the station/train/driver analogy?
 

Triggerfish

Active member
229 14
I agree the train, the station and the driver are different. Is there only one mind that drives the train? Why do the passengers of the train accept this all and get on board the train? Shouldn't there be some sort of time-schedule to keep the passengers on the train or those waiting at the stations happy?

You did mention you would explain this in another thread some time ago. So please do so here.

The driver/train/station depends on each other.....the analogy was written on the 13th so you should be looking at a price chart on that date to see what realizations you have in relation to this.....look at the day itself, what had happened before and after.....where is the train?.....where is the station?.....and why the driver?(this is very difficult).....What is the message being passed here?

Regarding the "I", this is really very difficult indeed but if you want a quickie on it, it goes something like this: "When you look at a mirror, you see a reflection of yourself but you KNOW that is not you as the real you cannot be seen".
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
The driver/train/station depends on each other.....the analogy was written on the 13th so you should be looking at a price chart on that date to see what realizations you have in relation to this.....look at the day itself, what had happened before and after.....where is the train?.....where is the station?.....and why the driver?(this is very difficult).....What is the message being passed here?

Regarding the "I", this is really very difficult indeed but if you want a quickie on it, it goes something like this: "When you look at a mirror, you see a reflection of yourself but you KNOW that is not you as the real you cannot be seen".

Sorry Triggerfish, I don't understand one of your questions: "why the driver?" Is it missing a word?

Do you mean why he decided to drive the train on that day?

There are all sorts of philosophies...Buddhist, Hindu et al regarding the ego and that there is no I. These are interesting but it seemed like you had more to say on the topic.

The question to me is always how helpful is it? You can tell someone there is no 'I'. But so what? It won't change anything for them. They would need to experience that there is no I for it to be meaningful, wouldn't they?
 

Triggerfish

Active member
229 14
I don't understand one of your questions: "why the driver?" Is it missing a word?.....Do you mean why he decided to drive the train on that day?.....
The question to me is always how helpful is it? You can tell someone there is no 'I'. But so what? It won't change anything for them. They would need to experience that there is no I for it to be meaningful, wouldn't they?
As already noted, they are related and depends on each other.....the driver is simply the train driver which drives the train itself and trains go from train station to train station.
Open a 1hr TF chat say on FTSE100 or Dax30 (both better examples) others Dow30/SP500 are ideal but not perfect but still relevant.
Surely you can now understand what I mean?.....at least at the surface level.

Yes, you are correct on the "I" and by telling someone about it, does not do a thing but that does not mean it is of no use/benefit.....there is a huge difference between assuming and knowing.....by removing it, we can detach the ego "I" and see things better, ie. with no obstructions.....these are very beneficial, especially to the trader, it brings out the awareness in you.
It is like someone saying something to you in a message format and you know what the true meaning is, those with the "I", they will not understand the meaning but will ask irrelevant questions or argue.
Another thing, the no "I" is not something which is to be experienced, it can be obtained permanently.
 
 
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