Not every believe becomes a fact.....in fact, a believe can become a delusion/obstruction of a fact.
If in hindsight, the trend becomes clearer then what one thought of as random cannot be true as the trend is already in the making.....yet random is just a word we use to describe something that we do not understand.
As a trend cannot exist on its own, it depends on two points being bottom/low and top/high.....yet what lies between these two points is what we term as an up/downtrend.....this is nothing more than momentum created by the start of that very trend.
Yet momentum cannot exist without the creation of a bottom/top.....so the question is what makes a bottom/top and why does that creation come with momentum?
The end is the complete opposite of what started that trend.
I think that the best a trader can do is to make a calculated assessment of what the market is going to do next. However, if he is right it is because of the law of 50-50. Even then, he has the broker's spread to pay for. That is why control of losing positions is so important.
I think that I have remained a survivor for so long because I suspect the worst before it gets that bad!
I'm too old to change, mate. I think that the market is random.