Random or Competition?

kimo'sabby

Experienced member
1,623 287
I trade futures, specifically the, ES. Now, i'm obviously a staunch believer in AMT, and cause/effect.

Here's what really ruins my day: Some idiot telling me that the market is random!

Obviously, i'm gonna come running to you guys :))which may be the worst action i could take) nevertheless, i'm here, and you can kick the living **** out of me if need be (rhetorically of course).

My point: If i lose money in the market, is it a random affair, or, is it because my competition excelled within the game?
 
Last edited by a moderator:

robster970

Veteren member
4,566 1,390
The arrival of orders is random.

The aggregate bias of buyers vs sellers wrt available liquidity is directional.

I'm with you - if you have a good market understanding, there is no reason why you shouldn't be able to win 100% of the time. All traders are striving to improve their market understanding and competition amongst us ensure we never get that perfect hit rate.

Simples!
 

kimo'sabby

Experienced member
1,623 287
The arrival of orders is random.

The aggregate bias of buyers vs sellers wrt available liquidity is directional.

I'm with you - if you have a good market understanding, there is no reason why you shouldn't be able to win 100% of the time. All traders are striving to improve their market understanding and competition amongst us ensure we never get that perfect hit rate.

Simples!


Rob. 100%? There's no need to be like that, i'm not being facetious or condescending, i'm trying to make a valid point.

Where is the proof that the market is random?

There is proof that the market is competitive (nobody wins all the time)
 

robster970

Veteren member
4,566 1,390
Rob. 100%? There's no need to be like that, i'm not being facetious or condescending, i'm trying to make a valid point.

Where is the proof that the market is random?

There is proof that the market is competitive (nobody wins all the time)

I'm serious man - I reckon that if you are skilled enough and have the right mental attitude, you can trade well enough to get very close to 100%.

I'm happy flopping around between about 50% and 85% on a hot streak but aspirationally I think 90%+ with consistency is entirely possible.
 

kimo'sabby

Experienced member
1,623 287
I'm serious man - I reckon that if you are skilled enough and have the right mental attitude, you can trade well enough to get very close to 100%.

I'm happy flopping around between about 50% and 85% on a hot streak but aspirationally I think 90%+ with consistency is entirely possible.


You keep this thread exactly the way you want it, Rob. My obvious offense was that of trying to add some dimension.
 
L

Liquid validity

0 0
Where is the proof that the market is random?

There is proof that the market is competitive (nobody wins all the time)

There is no proof, because markets are not random.
They can be sometimes, for sure.

Even at the most basic level - open and close time is fixed,
so there is a basic example of none random market behaviour.
If markets were truly random, peak volume and trends would
occur outside RTH, they don't.

A simple exercise of buying support and selling resistance will demonstrate
psychological price barriers in play.
Individual trade outcome may be random, but the long term result is not a random walk.

The notion of random markets, random trade outcome and random entry
are frequently and mistakenly intertwined as if they are all in some way related.
They aren't.
In fact I'd go as far to say that random entry (or semi random in truth) only works
because of the none random and rigid elements of market structure I mentioned earlier.

Not that there is any great mystery, its a good base for automation or for learning.
With a bit of experience, you'd need your head testing to trade it discretionary.
Its not an efficiency based choice, its purely a preferential choice with
the acceptance of lower efficiency.
 
  • Like
Reactions: the hare

counter_violent

Legendary member
10,525 2,790
I trade futures, specifically the, ES. Now, i'm obviously a staunch believer in AMT, and cause/effect.

Here's what really ruins my day: Some f*ckin idiot telling me that the market is random!

Obviously, i'm gonna come running to you guys :))which may be the worst action i could take) nevertheless, i'm here, and you can kick the living **** out of me if need be (rhetorically of course).

My point: If i lose money in the market, is it a random affair, or, is it because my competition excelled within the game?

The goal of any serious trader is surely to find a way of sorting out order from what can look like chaos.

So the answer to your point is....yes,because your competition excelled at the task.
 

robster970

Veteren member
4,566 1,390
You keep this thread exactly the way you want it, Rob. My obvious offense was that of trying to add some dimension.

Too serious today man. You're right, the market is entirely random, in fact it walks randomly by all account. I have proof and here it is:





 
L

Liquid validity

0 0
I'm serious man - I reckon that if you are skilled enough and have the right mental attitude, you can trade well enough to get very close to 100%.

I'm happy flopping around between about 50% and 85% on a hot streak but aspirationally I think 90%+ with consistency is entirely possible.

Surely that means that you would need to know the different
motivations, actions and intentions of every participant
capable of moving price - in advance.

Their motivations alone will differ wildly, as they are not all in it for a
few directional ticks for a start.
 

robster970

Veteren member
4,566 1,390
Surely that means that you would need to know the different
motivations, actions and intentions of every participant
capable of moving price - in advance.

Their motivations alone will differ wildly, as they are not all in it for a
few directional ticks for a start.

I think very skilled traders can have a good stab at that, yes, primarily by understanding where in the food chain they are in relation to other participants and trading other participants limitations to their advantage.
 

kimo'sabby

Experienced member
1,623 287
There is no proof, because markets are not random.
They can be sometimes, for sure.

Even at the most basic level - open and close time is fixed,
so there is a basic example of none random market behaviour.
If markets were truly random, peak volume and trends would
occur outside RTH, they don't.

A simple exercise of buying support and selling resistance will demonstrate
psychological price barriers in play.
Individual trade outcome may be random, but the long term result is not a random walk.

The notion of random markets, random trade outcome and random entry
are frequently and mistakenly intertwined as if they are all in some way related.
They aren't.
In fact I'd go as far to say that random entry (or semi random in truth) only works
because of the none random and rigid elements of market structure I mentioned earlier.

Not that there is any great mystery, its a good base for automation or for learning.
With a bit of experience, you'd need your head testing to trade it discretionary.
Its not an efficiency based choice, its purely a preferential choice with
the acceptance of lower efficiency.



Haha. I've been on both sides, and it doesn't get any easier, which ever way you cut it.
 

tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
100% is impossible , you have an infinite number of variables involved here , win % alone is irrelevant anyway , one can make money with just 50% .
 
  • Like
Reactions: Liquid validity
 
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock