Point and Figure method - trading journal

expensif

Active member
Welcome! Here is my trading journal with my:

technical analysis,
point and figure charting,
market analysis,
sector analysis,
Richard D. Wyckoff method analysis,
relative strength analysis,
and inner thoughts and feelings.

In my trading I have been using point and figure and the Richard D. Wyckoff method for many years now. I usually do top-down analysis by first identifying the market setup, I then do sector analysis and relative strength analysis to find the strongest or weakest stocks in the strongest or weakest sectors.

In my investing I combine fundamental analysis with the above and I use a few exceptional market timing signals for longer term bullishness or bearishness. These have showed to be far more accurate than my own feelings, so I’d rather trust the professional quantitative analysts than my own emotions. These signals are also used in my shorter term trading.

I will start this trading journal where I gather my thoughts and post my trading ideas. Instead of writing this down in my paper journal book, I’d might as well post it here if anyone is interested in reading.

These are my ideas, and you are invited to follow me. I like to exchange ideas and learn from my readers as well.
 
M

member275544

Welcome! Here is my trading journal with my:

technical analysis,
point and figure charting,
market analysis,
sector analysis,
Richard D. Wyckoff method analysis,
relative strength analysis,
and inner thoughts and feelings.

In my trading I have been using point and figure and the Richard D. Wyckoff method for many years now. I usually do top-down analysis by first identifying the market setup, I then do sector analysis and relative strength analysis to find the strongest or weakest stocks in the strongest or weakest sectors.

In my investing I combine fundamental analysis with the above and I use a few exceptional market timing signals for longer term bullishness or bearishness. These have showed to be far more accurate than my own feelings, so I’d rather trust the professional quantitative analysts than my own emotions. These signals are also used in my shorter term trading.

I will start this trading journal where I gather my thoughts and post my trading ideas. Instead of writing this down in my paper journal book, I’d might as well post it here if anyone is interested in reading.

These are my ideas, and you are invited to follow me. I like to exchange ideas and learn from my readers as well.

very much looking forward to this..I love P&F, nice to see how someone else uses it :clap:
 

expensif

Active member
My Point and Figure trading journal 2012

Here is a standard Point and Figure analysis / Wyckoff Technical analysis setup for AAPL that I have been trading with success this past year.

http://www.paf.am/?di=PWB8

This is what I usually look at in my technical trading: P&F chart of the stock. Bar chart of the stock. A P&F chart of the market (S&P 500). The Relative Strength versus the market. Usually I don't do RS analysis of the sectors. I get a fairly good view on the strong and weak sectors to avoid just by viewing their charts. As long as we are stronger than market, we're usually golden.

So what about the analysis of AAPL?
We are in a down trend with some kind of support at around 580. We already broke the 650 support. (And I got stopped out.) We went back to lick it (Wyckoff test of ice, guys). Markets seem to want to go south, but is hesitating a bit. AAPL is short-term weaker than the market which is generally not a good sign. AAPL has been a market leader for a long time, and when the market leaders stop going up, normally the rest of the pack will follow it sideways or down.
 

expensif

Active member
Subscribed. Sounds like I trade in a similar way to you, so I'll be interested to read your thoughts, as us point and figure traders are a rare breed on here. There's only dentist007's P&F thread http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/86964-learning-read-price-action-p-f-charts.html and my P&F Market breadth thread http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technical-analysis/147476-market-breadth.html


Yup, Dentist007 is a true "James Bond" of Point&Figure isn't he ;)

I like to think of myself as a price action trader. I spent my early years on looking for the holy grail, and for the right indicator and settings. It does not work that way.

I trade mostly stocks and stock options, with the occasional Forex trade thrown into the mix

Today's Friday - hope you all have a nice weekend
 

Sidekicker

Well-known member
very much looking forward to this..I love P&F, nice to see how someone else uses it :clap:

My problem with P&F was always that it seemd like it was aimed at trading breakouts and this is almost always a case of getting to the party late...
 
M

member275544

My problem with P&F was always that it seemd like it was aimed at trading breakouts and this is almost always a case of getting to the party late...

It is trading breakouts, does it get in late..possibly, but it keeps me in longer.
Depends on timeframes etc, but I've been trading a few longer term scenarios, and for one of my charts..BT I have had just one losing trade in the last 4 years...7 points! I have returned 70% since 2009 and still going strong. I trade EOD as I have a pretty decent job.
For intraday, which my wife uses after I taught her the ins and outs we have now got a system for the FTSE, backtested since May and using live for some time now with a winning hit rate of 70%. I dont care if I'm late to the party. Really, nothing absolutely nothing compares to the results I am getting.
Its support and resistance (not horizontal but on the trend lines) is just so damn uncanny, and the targets it produces. Nothing compares to this.
Have a party, I'll happily turn up late.
 
M

member275544

My problem with P&F was always that it seemd like it was aimed at trading breakouts and this is almost always a case of getting to the party late...

BT GROUP PLC ORD 5P.jpg

Here's the chart of BT..every trade taken in the direction of the trend, has only one case of a losing trade in the whole downturn, and then upturn. And this occurred at the outset of the new trend starting in 2009. A loss of 7 points.
 

expensif

Active member
My Point and Figure trading journal 2012

Let's have a look at URI, a stock I have been interested in a long time. Nice fundamentals and all.

We have quite a nice setup. We had a strong up move on heavy volume over the 37-38 area, gapped up even. Had a pullback/flat for a few days on much lower volume and then shot up again on heavier volume.

Another pullback/breather now, let's see the future.

http://www.paf.am/?di=IYWH
 
M

member275544

Re: My Point and Figure trading journal 2012

Let's have a look at URI, a stock I have been interested in a long time. Nice fundamentals and all.

We have quite a nice setup. We had a strong up move on heavy volume over the 37-38 area, gapped up even. Had a pullback/flat for a few days on much lower volume and then shot up again on heavier volume.

Another pullback/breather now, let's see the future.

http://www.paf.am/?di=IYWH

Would you not have got in already on this one..or do you prefer to see something develop and establish itself first? This is of course its first double top buy after a down trend, and they often are the worst ones..
 

expensif

Active member
ECL is another stock on my list.

I really like the uptrend it is showing on the daily and weekly point & figure charts. The candlestick charts shows the latest strong upmove on high volume and BIG bars. Somebody really wants to own this company, but taking a breather at the previous resistance, now acting as support. A pullback to the side of the creek - for using the Wyckoff trader lingo.

Daily Point & figure chart
http://www.paf.am/?di=K3JL

with weekly point and figure chart:
http://www.paf.am/?di=65MA
 

expensif

Active member
Re: My Point and Figure trading journal 2012

Would you not have got in already on this one..or do you prefer to see something develop and establish itself first? This is of course its first double top buy after a down trend, and they often are the worst ones..


Normally, I enter on pullbacks. Sure I miss the train if it take off like the ESS Enterprise or whatever they were driving in Star Trek, but my risk/reward is more in my favour.


Pullbacks on lower volume when I trade breakouts. Watch P&F for breakout, then check the bar chart/candle sticks for pullback. If it does not want to go down, it probably wants to go up.
 

expensif

Active member
Today I have four strong stocks. These are in the Utilities group that has performed well and been a market leader for a period.

First a technical analysis of AME
here we broke through the resistance at around 35.50. Now we seems to have a quick pullback on lower volume and I would not be surprised to see us head up if markets want to go higher from here.

We can notice a nice wyckoff spring at the end of the trading range before the breakout. For Spring traders this was just screaming out to buy. Springs are something I have always had trouble with, although they are a very reliable signal. With some hindsight in technical analysis they are a great confirmation in my opinion.

http://www.paf.am/?di=K6ZJ
 

expensif

Active member
Next technical analysis is DE - Deere & Company. These guys make tractors!

Tractors are apparently selling well, because we are breaking out of every resistance point there is. The point and figure 45 degree down trend line, and any minor resistance on the way. Now we had a slight pullback, a trading range above the resisitance "creek" on diminishing volume.

Also here we can see the Wyckoff spring in first part of october. You had to be cool to enter on it, but you had also been happy with your profits.

http://www.paf.am/?di=XVM8
 

expensif

Active member
Then we have PHM. Never heard of em...

PulteGroup, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in homebuilding and financial services businesses primarily in the United States.

Alrighty then, homebuilders. People need homes right?

Point and figure analysis - old resistance became support in the 17 level, now we are at resistance, or double top. We have a major diagonal uptrend in the bar chart. Strong.


http://www.paf.am/?di=IELW
 

expensif

Active member
Then some Rock n roll:

ROK

The last three days have been exceptional.

The formation leading to that crazy breakout is quite strange with lower lows and lower highs. That's what some people would call a flag. Chart patterns were my introduction to price action analysis and trading. From that I moved to Richard D Wyckoff's work, and later simplified my own analysis with heavier focus on Point and Figure and confirming analysis on bar charts or candle stick charts.

http://www.paf.am/?di=UY99
 

expensif

Active member
I just had to include this one also. SPRT. High risk - high reward?

I normally do not like these companies that are driven by news, but this pharmaceutical company apparently had a drug approved or something and the news made it blow through the roof. Now we are in a pullback after that news, and perhaps at a place where we might see a reversal.

http://www.paf.am/?di=E6D8

About halfway of closing the gap. Normally a Wyckoff trader would consider the half-way point from top to bottom of pullback. When we're having a gap, we must look at it another way. Gaps want to be filled. That is one of their only reason for living.... A strong stock will not fill its gap, but it still wants to be tested. If we don't fill the gap, we are dealing with a strong stock.

Now, the point & figure chart just looks like a column of X and a column of O. Interesting to not when we're talking about half-way points - the column of X is 44 boxes, and the column of O is 22 boxes - and for those of you that know basic math, that is half.

http://www.paf.am/?di=9XDO
 
 
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