Yamato
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Yamato
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automated systems weekly update
By far the best group is "opening gap", but it doesn't trade much, as expected in back-testing. Second best group by ROA and absolute returns is "overstretched": low drawdown and great gains. Third group is "overnight". The others are not doing well right now and they are the reason of the bad looking chart above.
I'm using a function that keeps the other bad groups from trading after an overall red week, because the red weeks tend to stick together, probably because those systems only go long and we've been in a downtrend recently: not on the YM, but on EUR, GBP, JPY. Anyway, regardless of the reason, they lost in consecutive weeks so I'll block them as soon as I get a red week.
Let alone the fact that if a system turns out to never work in one year, I won't use it. Basically I won't start using any system that hasn't been overall profitable in forward testing. So far 16 of the 42 systems have proven to be unprofitable so far, even though 6 months is not enough to say that they are unprofitable. I'd give them a full year. Eventually there might be still about 20% of all systems that will prove to be useless. But I'll keep on forward-testing them, just in case. Other than this I am pretty much done with the creation of systems. I am tired. I am now focusing on money management, on how to use them at best, and on how to interact in a discretionary way with things I could not automate like support and resistance, which I find too hard to calculate, to back-test and to automate.
Another thing, regarding my interaction with my automated systems: my new daily method, the one shot one kill trade on the hourly chart, should also verify all the signals from the systems, especially the good ones, like those belonging to OS, OG, ON groups. Indeed, today there was a great OS signal on the ZN which was matched by support, and yet I didn't take it, because I was still getting started with this new method. One shot one kill. Yeah, because I've decided I'll do about one trade per day. It's not a promise. I am just thinking about it. I am not promising anyone anything. Just to myself at the most, but I am not going to tell you, or else people will start saying that I'm not keeping my promises.
By far the best group is "opening gap", but it doesn't trade much, as expected in back-testing. Second best group by ROA and absolute returns is "overstretched": low drawdown and great gains. Third group is "overnight". The others are not doing well right now and they are the reason of the bad looking chart above.
I'm using a function that keeps the other bad groups from trading after an overall red week, because the red weeks tend to stick together, probably because those systems only go long and we've been in a downtrend recently: not on the YM, but on EUR, GBP, JPY. Anyway, regardless of the reason, they lost in consecutive weeks so I'll block them as soon as I get a red week.
Let alone the fact that if a system turns out to never work in one year, I won't use it. Basically I won't start using any system that hasn't been overall profitable in forward testing. So far 16 of the 42 systems have proven to be unprofitable so far, even though 6 months is not enough to say that they are unprofitable. I'd give them a full year. Eventually there might be still about 20% of all systems that will prove to be useless. But I'll keep on forward-testing them, just in case. Other than this I am pretty much done with the creation of systems. I am tired. I am now focusing on money management, on how to use them at best, and on how to interact in a discretionary way with things I could not automate like support and resistance, which I find too hard to calculate, to back-test and to automate.
Another thing, regarding my interaction with my automated systems: my new daily method, the one shot one kill trade on the hourly chart, should also verify all the signals from the systems, especially the good ones, like those belonging to OS, OG, ON groups. Indeed, today there was a great OS signal on the ZN which was matched by support, and yet I didn't take it, because I was still getting started with this new method. One shot one kill. Yeah, because I've decided I'll do about one trade per day. It's not a promise. I am just thinking about it. I am not promising anyone anything. Just to myself at the most, but I am not going to tell you, or else people will start saying that I'm not keeping my promises.
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Well I never knew that. Too long since I saw The Godfather to remember. But it fits well as those films came up in some conversations between various Soprano crew.
Hey Travis
Liking the way you did your analyses on the contracts you intended to trade, keep going I think there's value in developing that approach/skill further.
How about some Risk tonight?
(In case you're interested, I'm back up about 90% since Nov. 29 so 1) I've managed to claw back most of my big loss from back then (though not all yet, I'm expecting however that if I keep holding this position it should do the trick), so b) I now must become uber disciplined in managing this trade to completion and close it entirely soon, or at least take say half off the table soon to prevent the profits from evaporating again. This is one of my problems, I sometimes let winners turn to losers... and then don't take my loss when I should! As another observation, I fully agree with your view that longer term trades are better -- consider the fact that for example this position I've got running here is more than 1 month now... )
Liking the way you did your analyses on the contracts you intended to trade, keep going I think there's value in developing that approach/skill further.
How about some Risk tonight?
(In case you're interested, I'm back up about 90% since Nov. 29 so 1) I've managed to claw back most of my big loss from back then (though not all yet, I'm expecting however that if I keep holding this position it should do the trick), so b) I now must become uber disciplined in managing this trade to completion and close it entirely soon, or at least take say half off the table soon to prevent the profits from evaporating again. This is one of my problems, I sometimes let winners turn to losers... and then don't take my loss when I should! As another observation, I fully agree with your view that longer term trades are better -- consider the fact that for example this position I've got running here is more than 1 month now... )
Yamato
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I see. Yes, they make many references to the Godfather and Goodfellas (and some of them acted in Goodfellas as well).
Yamato
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Yeah, I look forward to meeting you online and playing risk. I know what you mean about hanging on to a trade. My problem is usually only hanging on to losing trades. I wouldn't say that making 200 trades a day doesn't work or it's worse: I'd say that I cannot do it. Or rather, that it's so hard to figure out how to do it profitably, that I may never figure it out. So, as I've often read others saying, everyone has to find his own trading style. And this approach might be the only profitable method for me, and if it will be so, it is because it borrows so much from my automated systems. They all make trades lasting a few hours. That's very important because extensive back-testing and forward-testing already give me an idea of what works and what doesn't.
Yamato
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I've been thinking. "Impulse trading" in order to be profitable comes from very careful planning, people getting used to it, and doing it faster and faster, until they call it "impulse trading". Or maybe they learned it like you learn a video game. I don't know. Maybe if I kept at it for one month, I could learn the so called "scalping", like those guys making 200 trades per day. I don't know. Probably it isn't going to happen, for lack of character, mentors and so on. So I'll apply myself to other objectives, ones that I can achieve all by myself.
The object within my reach is those trades that last a few hours. I don't know what it's called. I'll call it "those trades that last a few hours".
As far as I am concerned, I am realizing that unless I do my homework and study everything carefully before I place one of those trades, overall I will lose money. 12 years of losses tell me so. If I engage in impulse trading, as in "look, there's a great opportunity, let's seize it!", I'll pick more losers than winners. That's the way I am, maybe because I can't stare at the screen and wait long enough for a good opportunity to arise. But also if I look for "those trades that last a few hours", I can't just look at once chart for 10 seconds and place one of those. Usually if I do so, I am not placing a stoploss, and chances are that if that trade is not profitable, I'll prisoner of it until it either goes my way (like yesterday the CL) or it blows out my account.
Instead, if I do my homework, so much that I only make one such trade per day, I have no doubts that I can be profitable, and not just slightly profitable but very profitable. I am talking about a 70% of success rate with an average risk/reward of 1 to 3. I am not good at math but that should be a profit factor of 3*0.7 divided by 1*0.3 = 7, something none of my automated systems ever achieved. I am talking about profit factor because I backtest my systems on tradestation, and their reports always show a profit factor, which is better than just mentioning % of wins, because it includes also risk/reward. On the other hand, if you don't mention both % of wins and risk/reward (on tradestation it's called "average win / average loss"), people will not know where that profit ratio is coming from.
I know I can do it, but I must make no more than one trade per day, at least at the start, and all my homework. Only that way I will protect myself from overtrading. Later it might become easier, second nature and I may do more than one trade per day. But right now it will take a lot of homework, and I'll do it right here, in front of everyone.
I've started such homework on this post:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/72598-my-journal-214.html#post1027916
One more thing I want to add is the time that one trade should take place.
The time is about 22.00 CET. The reason is that my trade is betting on a reversal. And if there is one time when reversals have a high probability of happening, that is in the first few hours after the New York close, that is between 22 CET and 4 hours later. Those are major reversals, and price will switch direction and keep the new direction for the next few hours. My years of backtests say so.
Also, this is the principle that should rule my trading:
View attachment most_convenient_trades.bmp
With all these things put together, I seriously have an edge. I think I have a profit factor of 7. In other words a large majority of wins, and winners much bigger than losers.
The object within my reach is those trades that last a few hours. I don't know what it's called. I'll call it "those trades that last a few hours".
As far as I am concerned, I am realizing that unless I do my homework and study everything carefully before I place one of those trades, overall I will lose money. 12 years of losses tell me so. If I engage in impulse trading, as in "look, there's a great opportunity, let's seize it!", I'll pick more losers than winners. That's the way I am, maybe because I can't stare at the screen and wait long enough for a good opportunity to arise. But also if I look for "those trades that last a few hours", I can't just look at once chart for 10 seconds and place one of those. Usually if I do so, I am not placing a stoploss, and chances are that if that trade is not profitable, I'll prisoner of it until it either goes my way (like yesterday the CL) or it blows out my account.
Instead, if I do my homework, so much that I only make one such trade per day, I have no doubts that I can be profitable, and not just slightly profitable but very profitable. I am talking about a 70% of success rate with an average risk/reward of 1 to 3. I am not good at math but that should be a profit factor of 3*0.7 divided by 1*0.3 = 7, something none of my automated systems ever achieved. I am talking about profit factor because I backtest my systems on tradestation, and their reports always show a profit factor, which is better than just mentioning % of wins, because it includes also risk/reward. On the other hand, if you don't mention both % of wins and risk/reward (on tradestation it's called "average win / average loss"), people will not know where that profit ratio is coming from.
I know I can do it, but I must make no more than one trade per day, at least at the start, and all my homework. Only that way I will protect myself from overtrading. Later it might become easier, second nature and I may do more than one trade per day. But right now it will take a lot of homework, and I'll do it right here, in front of everyone.
I've started such homework on this post:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/72598-my-journal-214.html#post1027916
One more thing I want to add is the time that one trade should take place.
The time is about 22.00 CET. The reason is that my trade is betting on a reversal. And if there is one time when reversals have a high probability of happening, that is in the first few hours after the New York close, that is between 22 CET and 4 hours later. Those are major reversals, and price will switch direction and keep the new direction for the next few hours. My years of backtests say so.
Also, this is the principle that should rule my trading:
View attachment most_convenient_trades.bmp
With all these things put together, I seriously have an edge. I think I have a profit factor of 7. In other words a large majority of wins, and winners much bigger than losers.
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Yamato
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If I do my homework in the next few weeks I should bring the account back to at least 10k in very little time. Risking about 300 dollars on each trade. Making about 600 if it works. Succeeding 4 times out of 5. I should bring it up 1500 per week. I mean, I made 1000 just in one day on friday, so 1500 a week is reasonable. But then, once I get to 10k, the systems will resume their trading so capital increase will speed up. If I do everything right, I should get to about 10k within 1 month, and to 20k in 2 months. From then on, I can stop working because most of the systems will be trading again. Once I'll get used to not overtrading, I guess I could be placing just one discretionary trade per week.
I really needed this drawdown to figure out what kind of trading is best for me. I don't like to be lectured, reprimanded or anything like things that happen in school and at home until you're a teenager. Those methods never worked on me, and actually made me rebel more, by skipping classes and dropping out. But with the market it's different: you can't take it personally, and the market, through losses, has actually been caning me, and I didn't mind its methods. The drawdown kept me reading and searching and reasoning, recently incorporating in my trading these missing concepts: s/r and stoploss. Earlier, it's taught me forward testing, money management (as far as my automated systems): it's taught a lot of things that I had called "bull****" when I started trading.
This is really not like masonry. If you build it wrong it may fall in a year. But here, with trading, you can't build it at all, your account just doesn't get bigger if you are doing anything wrong. If you overtrade it's not like your account will grow more slowly, or as if you were swimming where you wonder why you are not being fast enough... in trading you start going backwards.
This journal is good. I see that some readers/writers are not even writing here any more, nor reading. Maybe they think it's hopeless, that I'll never learn. That I am going around in circles. It's all good. Also because, since I tell the truth, I've had to admit and write down that I've been trading for 12 years and I am still not consistently profitable. And I am starting to feel ashamed of this. And this may just be the last drop that will force me to become profitable.
12 years of trading and I am still unprofitable. This is the reality of my trading. Even the posts by two or three people who wrote "???" and "!!!", and bothered me quite a bit, maybe exactly those posts are the ones motivating me the most to become profitable. I figure if there's people treating me like an idiot, i must have reached the bottom. I get mad at them, but I also see that I am the cause of the problem, what I write is the source of everything, and therefore what I do is the ultimate cause. And it all has to stop. Overall I've read at least 5 people treating me like an idiot, or like a nut case. Telling me to go to the pyschiatrist... this is all good. I want to show them how good a trader I can be. Just as I've kept track of all my bad trades, I will now (hopefully) write down exactly how I will bring my account back to where it was just a few months ago, and I will do so via discretionary trading, where I've never been profitable before.
I feel that I haven't achieved much in life, I feel that being profitable is within my reach, and I feel that if I do my homework I can finally achieve it. One way or another during all these years I have learned enough about the markets to have profitability within my reach. I don't see why I shouldn't make it happen. I now both feel that I want it to happen and that I realistically can make it happen. In the past, one of the two has been missing, I don't know which one, if both, and what else.
I really needed this drawdown to figure out what kind of trading is best for me. I don't like to be lectured, reprimanded or anything like things that happen in school and at home until you're a teenager. Those methods never worked on me, and actually made me rebel more, by skipping classes and dropping out. But with the market it's different: you can't take it personally, and the market, through losses, has actually been caning me, and I didn't mind its methods. The drawdown kept me reading and searching and reasoning, recently incorporating in my trading these missing concepts: s/r and stoploss. Earlier, it's taught me forward testing, money management (as far as my automated systems): it's taught a lot of things that I had called "bull****" when I started trading.
This is really not like masonry. If you build it wrong it may fall in a year. But here, with trading, you can't build it at all, your account just doesn't get bigger if you are doing anything wrong. If you overtrade it's not like your account will grow more slowly, or as if you were swimming where you wonder why you are not being fast enough... in trading you start going backwards.
This journal is good. I see that some readers/writers are not even writing here any more, nor reading. Maybe they think it's hopeless, that I'll never learn. That I am going around in circles. It's all good. Also because, since I tell the truth, I've had to admit and write down that I've been trading for 12 years and I am still not consistently profitable. And I am starting to feel ashamed of this. And this may just be the last drop that will force me to become profitable.
12 years of trading and I am still unprofitable. This is the reality of my trading. Even the posts by two or three people who wrote "???" and "!!!", and bothered me quite a bit, maybe exactly those posts are the ones motivating me the most to become profitable. I figure if there's people treating me like an idiot, i must have reached the bottom. I get mad at them, but I also see that I am the cause of the problem, what I write is the source of everything, and therefore what I do is the ultimate cause. And it all has to stop. Overall I've read at least 5 people treating me like an idiot, or like a nut case. Telling me to go to the pyschiatrist... this is all good. I want to show them how good a trader I can be. Just as I've kept track of all my bad trades, I will now (hopefully) write down exactly how I will bring my account back to where it was just a few months ago, and I will do so via discretionary trading, where I've never been profitable before.
I feel that I haven't achieved much in life, I feel that being profitable is within my reach, and I feel that if I do my homework I can finally achieve it. One way or another during all these years I have learned enough about the markets to have profitability within my reach. I don't see why I shouldn't make it happen. I now both feel that I want it to happen and that I realistically can make it happen. In the past, one of the two has been missing, I don't know which one, if both, and what else.
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Yamato
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how I will trade false breakouts
Instead of getting screwed with my stoploss like on the CL, this is how I will trade the potential false breakouts that happen quite often near tops and bottoms. See examples below, circled in red.
I think the best way to trade these is not via any stoplosses, conditional or limit orders. Too dangerous. You should trade it like the 14.30 CET news, Ready to get in and out within a few minutes, with MKT orders, as it will go up and down very rapidly.
How can we differentiate between a regular s/r and a s/r prone to false breakouts? I think if it gets there overbought/oversold, it will not even try to break it or it will definitely come back soon. If it gets near s/r without being overstretched, there's a high risk of a breakout, false or not (especially with major s/r levels). Just like for a person: if you are tired you're not going to feel like pushing down a wall.
And I took those image examples randomly, but I just checked and those circled false breakouts were all not overstretched when they attempted a breakout (and then came back within previous s/r). I believe that if you get there with a +1% gain for the day (on forex, more for the others), you won't see price do any breakouts and you can bet your money that it won't, and that if it does, it will come back. Also time of the day matters: if we're near 22.00 CET it has already used up all its energies.
No point instead in going short and setting a stoploss above resistance, if it's during the afternoon (CET), with fresh energies, if it's not tired because it hasn't run much upwards, it's near resistance and moving near it for hours... like it did on the CL when I got screwed. What happened: it broke through resistance, as I should have expected but didn't, it took my stoploss and executed it many ticks higher, and then it came back down, and that trade would have made me 600 and instead it lost me 600. Because I didn't plan ahead. I decided the whole thing in a matter of seconds.
So, I will either not trade in these situations, or I will set up a MKT order on tws chart trader, with 10 ticks stoplosses and manual take profits. I'll need a 1 minute chart for this type of trades.
Instead of getting screwed with my stoploss like on the CL, this is how I will trade the potential false breakouts that happen quite often near tops and bottoms. See examples below, circled in red.
I think the best way to trade these is not via any stoplosses, conditional or limit orders. Too dangerous. You should trade it like the 14.30 CET news, Ready to get in and out within a few minutes, with MKT orders, as it will go up and down very rapidly.
How can we differentiate between a regular s/r and a s/r prone to false breakouts? I think if it gets there overbought/oversold, it will not even try to break it or it will definitely come back soon. If it gets near s/r without being overstretched, there's a high risk of a breakout, false or not (especially with major s/r levels). Just like for a person: if you are tired you're not going to feel like pushing down a wall.
And I took those image examples randomly, but I just checked and those circled false breakouts were all not overstretched when they attempted a breakout (and then came back within previous s/r). I believe that if you get there with a +1% gain for the day (on forex, more for the others), you won't see price do any breakouts and you can bet your money that it won't, and that if it does, it will come back. Also time of the day matters: if we're near 22.00 CET it has already used up all its energies.
No point instead in going short and setting a stoploss above resistance, if it's during the afternoon (CET), with fresh energies, if it's not tired because it hasn't run much upwards, it's near resistance and moving near it for hours... like it did on the CL when I got screwed. What happened: it broke through resistance, as I should have expected but didn't, it took my stoploss and executed it many ticks higher, and then it came back down, and that trade would have made me 600 and instead it lost me 600. Because I didn't plan ahead. I decided the whole thing in a matter of seconds.
So, I will either not trade in these situations, or I will set up a MKT order on tws chart trader, with 10 ticks stoplosses and manual take profits. I'll need a 1 minute chart for this type of trades.
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B
Black Swan
He's only got 4 different t-shirts though eh? Pfftt!! Armani doesn't even do 3 of those colours :-0
Yamato
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This is good:
http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?t=3
http://www.moneyshow.com/video/video.asp?t=3
Yamato
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Another guy like seiden, making videos explaining the importance of support and resistance:
He's a good trading educator:
http://www.freetradingsystems.org
http://www.davidjenyns.com/about/
This guy is very good... from all points of view: simple, wise, knowledgeable:
"...even intuitive traders are approaching the market in a systematic way..."
"...you want to choose one market to trade, you want to choose one method to trade, and you want to make sure that you follow that through and become the master at that particular method..."
It's all very interesting. I like how he mentions things in a simple and synthetic way.
Trend is an interesting concept. He says, in the last video: I like to make sure that I am trading with the trend. Which we hear all the time.
But what is the trend? It all depends on how long your trade will last. I must remember not to mix the wrong timeframes when measuring trend. If we've gone up for the past year, that's an uptrend. But then, if we've gone down for the past month of the past positive year, that's a downtrend within an uptrend. And so on for lower timeframes. So how do I define whether I am trading with the trend or not? Just like for support and resistance, I guess.
Let me think. If my trade will last a month, I should look at the past year's trend and s/r levels. If my trade lasts a week, I should look at those same values for the past month. I would say that the trade should go in the same direction as the previous period multiplied by at least 5 times what the trade will last. Does this make sense? I don't know. I am just thinking out loud. If my trade last 6 hours, which is what they last... well, yeah, that's more or less right. No, it's still not very clear.
However, I am pretty sure that if your trades last a few hours, it doesn't make any sense to look at what the trend is for the past year, and that you need to look at lower timeframes. However it does make sense to look at s/r for the past year, so maybe for s/r it might be different.
Let's move on to the next video, on money management. This guy is very good. You've got to check him out. I've started watching one video, and I ended up watching 20 of them, most of them from here:
http://www.freetradingsystems.org
In many ways, money management should already be included within your trading system. The problem is that you don't include it often... so what happens everyone mentions it separately.
On backtesting, flawless and comprehensive explanation:
Tips on choosing the right broker, very wise and simple and to the point:
He's the best online trading educator (with videos) I've seen so far. Most comprehensive and clear, honest, detailed, wise. Anyone starting out should watch all these videos and read what it says on each of those pages (notes below the video):
http://www.freetradingsystems.org/
His youtube page:
http://www.youtube.com/user/djenyns
He's a good trading educator:
http://www.freetradingsystems.org
http://www.davidjenyns.com/about/
This guy is very good... from all points of view: simple, wise, knowledgeable:
"...even intuitive traders are approaching the market in a systematic way..."
"...you want to choose one market to trade, you want to choose one method to trade, and you want to make sure that you follow that through and become the master at that particular method..."
It's all very interesting. I like how he mentions things in a simple and synthetic way.
Trend is an interesting concept. He says, in the last video: I like to make sure that I am trading with the trend. Which we hear all the time.
But what is the trend? It all depends on how long your trade will last. I must remember not to mix the wrong timeframes when measuring trend. If we've gone up for the past year, that's an uptrend. But then, if we've gone down for the past month of the past positive year, that's a downtrend within an uptrend. And so on for lower timeframes. So how do I define whether I am trading with the trend or not? Just like for support and resistance, I guess.
Let me think. If my trade will last a month, I should look at the past year's trend and s/r levels. If my trade lasts a week, I should look at those same values for the past month. I would say that the trade should go in the same direction as the previous period multiplied by at least 5 times what the trade will last. Does this make sense? I don't know. I am just thinking out loud. If my trade last 6 hours, which is what they last... well, yeah, that's more or less right. No, it's still not very clear.
However, I am pretty sure that if your trades last a few hours, it doesn't make any sense to look at what the trend is for the past year, and that you need to look at lower timeframes. However it does make sense to look at s/r for the past year, so maybe for s/r it might be different.
Let's move on to the next video, on money management. This guy is very good. You've got to check him out. I've started watching one video, and I ended up watching 20 of them, most of them from here:
http://www.freetradingsystems.org
In many ways, money management should already be included within your trading system. The problem is that you don't include it often... so what happens everyone mentions it separately.
On backtesting, flawless and comprehensive explanation:
Tips on choosing the right broker, very wise and simple and to the point:
He's the best online trading educator (with videos) I've seen so far. Most comprehensive and clear, honest, detailed, wise. Anyone starting out should watch all these videos and read what it says on each of those pages (notes below the video):
http://www.freetradingsystems.org/
His youtube page:
http://www.youtube.com/user/djenyns
Yamato
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His friend, also very good (all the videos are good):
http://www.youtube.com/user/stuartmcphee
This is awesome:
Not bad at all... check the interview on top of this page:
http://www.tradinginanutshell.com/
His biography:
http://www.trading-plan.com/about_us.html
His web site:
http://www.trading-plan.com/
Another interview, to a Market Wizard:
http://www.youtube.com/user/stuartmcphee
This is awesome:
Not bad at all... check the interview on top of this page:
http://www.tradinginanutshell.com/
His biography:
http://www.trading-plan.com/about_us.html
His web site:
http://www.trading-plan.com/
Another interview, to a Market Wizard:
Hey Travis, found this today, thought it might be interesting: http://financialmarketfisherman.com...o-stop-yourself-cutting-winning-trades-short/
Also thanks for posting the David Jenyns links, I've come across him before, somehow was not entirely convinced at the time, but I'll have a look at the videos, maybe my initial reaction was unneccesarily negative.
BTW, I think your thinking about timeframes are going in the right direction. I've found it critical to have a handle on what timeframe your trade is targetting and what timeframe you're using to time entry and so on. So if you plan a trade to last a week or more, you need to look at weekly trend (weekly bars, daily bars) to find suitable entry points (close to support/resistance, close to trendline etc) and then use shorter timeframes to help time your entry, so use e.g. dailies and 4H to find a pullback, e.g. a counter the longer term trend movement,which we might call a short term trend, wait for it to exhaust itself, and once the shorter term trend starts moving in the same direction as the longer term trend again, one enters, ideally close to suitable support/resistance etc so you end up with a fairly high probability trade with an "as tight as possible but with enough room to breathe" stop. (Notice, the idea here is for "price to prove itself" (as the one guy I'm learning from always says), so you only enter when the price action has in some way proven already that the longer term trend is resuming, so we're not blindly picking tops and bottoms as such. We're trying to get in as close to a local turning point as possible, of course, but in a controlled and predictable way, as much as that is possible anyway.)
With a bit of luck the market then will then move (or continue moving) in your direction and quickly put some distance from your opening price. And hopefully, after a day or so (or some suitable period of time, a few hours may be enough) if you're not stopped out, you can move your stop to break-even. Then the trade is essentially risk free and it's a case of managing the trade further, letting your profit run and watching the longer term trend for signs of exhaustion/turning at which point you close. Etc. I know I make it sound simpler than it is in reality but that's what I aim for and that's what trend following is roughly about, as I understand it.
BTW sorry I missed you for some Risk, maybe try again today?
Also thanks for posting the David Jenyns links, I've come across him before, somehow was not entirely convinced at the time, but I'll have a look at the videos, maybe my initial reaction was unneccesarily negative.
BTW, I think your thinking about timeframes are going in the right direction. I've found it critical to have a handle on what timeframe your trade is targetting and what timeframe you're using to time entry and so on. So if you plan a trade to last a week or more, you need to look at weekly trend (weekly bars, daily bars) to find suitable entry points (close to support/resistance, close to trendline etc) and then use shorter timeframes to help time your entry, so use e.g. dailies and 4H to find a pullback, e.g. a counter the longer term trend movement,which we might call a short term trend, wait for it to exhaust itself, and once the shorter term trend starts moving in the same direction as the longer term trend again, one enters, ideally close to suitable support/resistance etc so you end up with a fairly high probability trade with an "as tight as possible but with enough room to breathe" stop. (Notice, the idea here is for "price to prove itself" (as the one guy I'm learning from always says), so you only enter when the price action has in some way proven already that the longer term trend is resuming, so we're not blindly picking tops and bottoms as such. We're trying to get in as close to a local turning point as possible, of course, but in a controlled and predictable way, as much as that is possible anyway.)
With a bit of luck the market then will then move (or continue moving) in your direction and quickly put some distance from your opening price. And hopefully, after a day or so (or some suitable period of time, a few hours may be enough) if you're not stopped out, you can move your stop to break-even. Then the trade is essentially risk free and it's a case of managing the trade further, letting your profit run and watching the longer term trend for signs of exhaustion/turning at which point you close. Etc. I know I make it sound simpler than it is in reality but that's what I aim for and that's what trend following is roughly about, as I understand it.
BTW sorry I missed you for some Risk, maybe try again today?
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Yamato
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Yes, he sounds 100% honest to me, but especially, along with his friend, they seem generous, intelligent, precise, synthetic, clear, to the point. Thanks for the link, and for the feedback on timeframe and trend. About risk, I'll try to show up and join a game within the next few hours.
Video related to timeframe:
Video related to timeframe:
Yamato
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By the same person (he's good, too):
It's very useful to research on an idea through youtube videos. Good place... this guy promotes:
www.informedtrades.com
They also seem like a bunch of honest and generous individuals.
Some more links of videos by the same David Waring:
http://www.informedtrades.com/f111/
http://www.informedtrades.com/f112/
Here he talks about a very useful topic: forex brokers. Months ago I did some research on this topic and he's giving me some of the answers I wanted:
Wow, they also have a huge forum:
http://www.informedtrades.com/f247/
It's very useful to research on an idea through youtube videos. Good place... this guy promotes:
www.informedtrades.com
They also seem like a bunch of honest and generous individuals.
Some more links of videos by the same David Waring:
http://www.informedtrades.com/f111/
http://www.informedtrades.com/f112/
Here he talks about a very useful topic: forex brokers. Months ago I did some research on this topic and he's giving me some of the answers I wanted:
Wow, they also have a huge forum:
http://www.informedtrades.com/f247/
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Yamato
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Another australian, Nial Fuller:
Interviewed by the already mentioned Stuar McPhee:
Here he talks about "confluence of levels" as a great opportunity (50% retracement and resistance level):
Nial's youtube channel, another thing to check out when I have free time (he stresses s/r like seiden):
http://www.youtube.com/user/OzTrader
Interviewed by the already mentioned Stuar McPhee:
Here he talks about "confluence of levels" as a great opportunity (50% retracement and resistance level):
Nial's youtube channel, another thing to check out when I have free time (he stresses s/r like seiden):
http://www.youtube.com/user/OzTrader
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