Dilemma in creating a system ...

[brooksrimes]

After many years of hard work, I have been unable to find/create a system to trade.

In some ways, deep down, I feel that trading may be too complex to systematize, so I look at discretionary trading methods. But even discretionary trading has rules. In order to "prove" that a discretionary trading method "works", you either have to do one of 3 things: trade it in real time, trade it in a simulated mode or back test it. #1 and #2 take a lot of time and then you only know how it works over a relatively short period of time.

#3 allows a test spanning years but can be difficult and in some cases near impossible to code. This also gets into all the complex and time consuming issues of optimization, avoiding curve fitting, walk-forward testing, etc. I often find that a system will work well for a given period of time but becomes unprofitable or has unacceptable low profits over a larger test. Occasionally, I have also come across systems that generate decent profits but have unacceptably large drawdowns.

I feel like I'm stuck in a rut and don't know how to get out. I have reached a certain level of competancy in coding and testing systems, but don't know how to get to the next level.

I certainly don't expect anyone to give me the results of your hard work, but assuming you are a successful system trader : ), I would appreciate any nudges into the right direction.

Brooks

 

[badtrader]

Maybe I can help you, I send you a private message later on.

 

[badtrader]

.Hi Brook

Sorry for the delay. I understand that you feel you are stuck in a rut with trading, and in back testing. I maybe of some help to you.

I can give you a few methods of mine that makes money for me, could you do some back test for me, on new methods.As I am not a Wiz kid on Tech. You can then trade them you self to make money.

The bottom line is, we here to make money from the markets and I dont believe you need to have a complex system to make money.

Let me know if you like to work with me, to make a simple system, trading the Dow.

rgs

Bill

 

[Stockjunkie]

In my view , fully computerised trading only works for insitutional players , so forget it unless you are incorporated to the tune of a couple of million.

For individuals , DS are better . For this you will just have to do the best you can back testing but don't get carried away with it . There is a world difference between that and real trading , I assure you .

When you are confident as much as can be , then take the plunge and do it for real.

 

[fxmarkets]

.

#3 allows a test spanning years but can be difficult and in some cases near impossible to code. Brooks

Thats exactly the way forward, it is all about you, recoding . also near impossible maybe hence it can be a hard introspective thing to do.
subjective yet my view.

You are the system if you like, complex? hmmm its a different reverse psychology if you like, having to perhaps go totally against ingrained psyche beliefs, which is why its as different to everyone because we are all programmed subtlety and not so subtlety different......... just takes time to do the old rewire so to speak.

 

[brooksrimes]

So you advocate discretionary trading too?

Thats exactly the way forward, it is all about you, recoding . also near impossible maybe hence it can be a hard introspective thing to do.
subjective yet my view.

You are the system if you like, complex? hmmm its a different reverse psychology if you like, having to perhaps go totally against ingrained psyche beliefs, which is why its as different to everyone because we are all programmed subtlety and not so subtlety different......... just takes time to do the old rewire so to speak.

 

[fxmarkets]

well yes, except maybe you become systematic, automatic with your actions, its hard to explain but you after time......... lots of time if you maintain the will to continue through setbacks... which is part of your learning process, and you respect yourself , enabling you to cope with these setbacks, which are frequently repeated lessons that we often ignore. You then perhaps look at the reasons as to why I am behaving like this or that. Whilst its beneficial to have a method based on sensible logic dealing with the ever changing yet same mental set of the crowd, the person ie you and I still need to be able to apply that method consistently,be it a computer thats churned up a buy signal or a person seeing opportunity and initiating a trade. And well to be honest most people do not even have any idea who they are.

Perhaps those who choose to give up do not wish to find out or even begin to look.

 

[Tuffty]

brooksrimes,

You seem to be well aware that discretionary or systematic trading involves risk.

Good luck Tuffty.

 

[rdstagg]

The Grail?

Fx markets

You are very ahead of your postings number!
I think this is the heart of trading myself and you have put it very well - I 'm not sure everyone will get it though!

well yes, except maybe you become systematic, automatic with your actions, its hard to explain but you after time......... lots of time if you maintain the will to continue through setbacks... which is part of your learning process, and you respect yourself , enabling you to cope with these setbacks, which are frequently repeated lessons that we often ignore. You then perhaps look at the reasons as to why I am behaving like this or that. Whilst its beneficial to have a method based on sensible logic dealing with the ever changing yet same mental set of the crowd, the person ie you and I still need to be able to apply that method consistently,be it a computer thats churned up a buy signal or a person seeing opportunity and initiating a trade. And well to be honest most people do not even have any idea who they are.

Perhaps those who choose to give up do not wish to find out or even begin to look.