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Yes, funny coincidence: it's been up 15 dollars all day, and now that you asked, it's up 100 dollars. Thank you so much for this: I feel like you made it go up to provide me with some entertainment. Ok, now I feel better for example. I don't miss the Combat Flight Simulator as much. But to equal the entertainment provided by CFS3, I'd need to see +5000 dollars every day, and to be making about.... 50 trades per day. Every moment should be like the 14.30 CET news, when markets jump up and down like crazy. Then my day would be satisfactory. Or it would have to be like it is now, but without spread and commission costs.
 
:)
So the 14:30 CET news should take you to your price target FASTER
according to Sam Seiden. Will look forward to your results.
 
Oh really, when did Sam Seiden say that? I talked about him for many posts, but I don't remember mentioning that. Does he have a chat where he said that regarding today? No, wait, I remember: in one of those videos I linked he said that... exactly: the markets just wait around until 14.30 CET and then go there faster (go to s/r levels faster): are you referring to that? But that only happens if there is news. Is there news today? I don't know: I rarely check.

By the way, did you watch the videos because I mentioned them? I would be quite happy if that's the case, because it means that people actually find my posts useful.
 
I suddenly (intraday half-margin) had the margin and went short on the GBP. Just a quick 200 dollars and then I'll go back within my system of just one trade per day. I need to do this because I am so poor and frustrated. It's just a temporary relapse. The method remains "1 discretionary trade per day". I know it sounds ridiculous, but it's just temporary, until I reach a margin of 7k or similar. Besides, today I am quite frustrated and this is a great opportunity (for action, that will give me money, and get me out of the frustrating work situation).
 
No, what I meant was, Sam says that active time zones (eg. 14.30 CET) & news releases only speed up the inevitable price movement b/w the S/R zones.

And I'm not sure if there is any news. I dont trade ZN. Just taking a wild guess based on your 14.30 ref. from ur previous post.

The following pts from your last few posts have opened my eyes up and will hopefully make me a profitable trader when I resume trading next week!
1. Lottery
2. Sam's demand-supply driven S/R levels
3. Going with the trend
4. Market Depth driven judgements!

I can relate to what you are going through. Thx for keeping the post going. I think you are inches away from being a profitable trader.
 
Btw, did you get confirmation on the market depth on the GBP short ?

Also, what trading platform do you use ? Is it a level 3 platform ? I ask cuz I'm trying to find one that offers detailed market depth.
 
Btw, did you get confirmation on the market depth on the GBP short ?

Also, what trading platform do you use ? Is it a level 3 platform ? I ask cuz I'm trying to find one that offers detailed market depth.

Well, look, I wouldn't follow the GBP trade, because that was exactly a gambling trade (without even a stoploss). The GBP is a future with small leverage so I dared to do it. But it was full scale gambling mode. It's oversold, close to resistance... it's a reasonable gamble. But I didn't follow enough confirmations. Also, the market depth: I didn't follow it because it was only reliable this morning on the ZN, but until now I've never really found any future where the market depth gave such reliable feedback as today on the ZN. Usually I can't use it in any way. Somehow today it coincided with s/r on the ZN chart. Maybe it always works on the ZN. I didn't find it useful on all other futures, certainly not readable by the naked eye. Maybe with an automated computerised method, not available to me right now. Certainly the sum on top (see picture posted earlier) is important, besides the number of contracts at a given price level. However even Seiden, who was a CME floor trader handling the order flow (sorry if i am not precise, since I don't know the subject) does not use market depth nor volume but only price action (at least by what I heard on his videos). So this is a great reason to discard it: if a guy who started trading based on order flow does not use market depth nor volume... great reason to not worry about it.

I have an account with IB, which I strongly recommend. Best broker around as far as I'm concerned. Very very satisfied. Platform is called TWS, and it's free. It's perfect. I wouldn't change anything in it. Do open an account with IB.

I closed that GBP gambling trade and made just 60 dollars, which is better than nothing. I feel better having closed it anyway.
 
Good going on the cutting the gamble quickly.

I'm intrigued by the market depth cuz it makes perfect business sense. Gives me a sense of security looking at those large orders. Its almost like having a wall at Support! Never looked at market depth in detail before. Gonna try looking at it though. Your ZN market depth perfectly showcased the supply-demand imbalance & the support zones.
 
So how much are you up on the ZN trade now? I think the moving stop would make more sense cuz it does not make sense to lose money made. (Especially if your moving stop is strategically placed below secondary support).
 
Oh yes, it did. And guess what: you opened my eyes by mentioning the lottery ticket thing again to me. So here's what I did. I removed my limit order on the ZN, and I will now keep it open for a couple of weeks, considering that stoploss of just 75 dollars like the cost of my lottery ticket: precisely because that support level has been holding so well today and because I think we will now rise for many days.

If this happens, with a cost of 75 dollars i could make 5000 dollars (if it reaches the previous high of December). If it doesn't happen, I will lose 75 dollars. Probably though I will get tired of holding my position by the time I see a profit of 2000 dollars. On the other hand, I could always raise my stop and keep it open. I'll see. The potential to the upside is so big that I can't close it today with a profit of just 600.

It would be nice for once, instead of hanging on to losing positions, to hang on to a winning position. Also, I am kind of tired of trading, especially the good trading, which requires so much work (one trade per day and so on), and if I hold this position open and it works, I will then have the capital again for trading the systems.
 
So how much are you up on the ZN trade now? I think the moving stop would make more sense cuz it does not make sense to lose money made. (Especially if your moving stop is strategically placed below secondary support).

Sorry about this. I reposted my post because I don't like it when it says "edited" and your post was after mine, rather than before, as it appears now. Because otherwise your questions don't make sense to the reader.

So I will answer here, and hopefully the readers (including me in the future) will understand that what I am quoting above was written after my post above and not before, as it looks now.

My answers:

Right now I am up about 230 on the ZN. Yeah, you're right about moving the stop. I will do it. But if I bring that reasoning to the extreme... such a stop would be taken out sooner or later. Sooner than later. So I will use very large stops. But pretty soon they will become profitable stops. I am considering the idea of actually using this approach again in the future... I don't know... we'll see. That certainly would be a good cure to overtrading, keeping positions open for weeks and only looking at the daily candles. We'll see. For now it's enough if I learn to not make more than 1 trade per day.

Mmh. Ok, I'll keep moving my stop below secondary support (which I don't know what it is, but I can guess where I'd see it on my drawings).
 
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Hey T,

What kind of leverage are you using ? Also, what are the lot sizes & how many lots do you have on the ZN ?
 
I am trading futures, CME futures to be precise. That's why I advise you to open account with IB and do the same. Low spread, low commissions. I think you can trust IB better than any other broker, because they make money on how often you trade, not on the spread and so on... I don't know how spreadbetting companies work, but I don't trust them. I heard bad things about them. I would recommend to you opening an account with IB and trading futures. On the other hand, you told me you can make money with binary options, so if that's still the case and the opportunities are still there and that company is not ripping you off now, then continue to do so. Stick to what works. But I believe that futures (with IB as a broker, and its low costs) are the best instrument, and even if I've lost money so far, it's never been so much my fault as now: before I really could find excuses in how bad were the instruments. Now if I lose, it's 100% my fault. And that's the way it should be. You must be in a position that you cannot blame your broker or "bucket shop" for some unfair behaviour. There must be you vs. price, as much as possible.
 
I agree a 100%.

Excuse my ignorance but what leverage does IB offer for ZN. Also, how many contracts do you have open on ZN right now? And how many pips away is ur stoploss?
 
Well, first of all, here's the web site:
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/main.php

Consider that IB has a lot of customers, and this has many advantages (better programs, better fees, more security they'll stay around, if you have a problem everyone will be having it so you don't need to call up and say there's a problem...). If you go to elitetrader.com practically the whole forum has an account with IB, so you can ask them, if the IB forum is not helping you out. Another advantage is low costs and high quality of everything. Another one is their API: it gives you capability of entirely automating your strategies, which is the most important thing for your future developments (so you don't have to stay in front of the screen all day long, which I do anyway, out of boredom). Oh, and a great advantage is the paper trading platform, which is exactly the same TWS platform, except that you are paper trading: awesome and very useful.

On the ZN I have one contract (I can only afford one with overnight margin). The information about margin is all here:
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=margin

My stoploss is now only 5 ticks away from my entry. Each tick is about 15 dollars, so 75 dollars is what this lottery ticket is costing me (if I don't win: if I win, it gets refunded).

Regarding IB and futures, this is how they work. You need a margin to open your "bet" (bet on the future price, i guess). Margin required gets cut by half at different times for different futures, but it generally is close to New York open and close (15.30 CET and 22.00 CET). For most CME futures, the good ones with volume, overnight margin ranges from 2000 to 5000 (intraday margin is half).

Each tick you make gives you about 5 to 12.5 dollars on average, to give you a rough idea. And it's also good for me to sum it up, to give myself an overview.

Each futures trade costs you about 2 to 5 dollars in commissions, depending on how big the contract is. For OIL (CL) it's 5 dollars. Multiply by two if you want to close your position.

The best contract by the way is by far OIL, in the sense that if you are doing things correctly, you can make 2000 dollars (10 dollars per tick, and average daily ranges of 100s of ticks) in one day with just an intraday margin of 3000 dollars.

So, if you are doing things right, you wouldn't be missing binary options, because you can make 100% a day here as well.

Of course that also explains why my biggest losses were on OIL, since I did not do things right. The last one was 3000 dollars a week ago.

And of course, there's no volatility or time decay... you just have to pick the right direction and not worry about anything else. If price doesn't move for one month, you don't lose everything like it could happen with options.

One problem for many starting traders could be the high minimum required deposit (to open the account) which used to be 5000 dollars but now is 10 thousand dollars.

That really sucks. Because if you're a beginner and a reckless beginner like me you open your account and you lose that 10k immediately. On the other hand, if you trade futures, you will only have yourself to blame, not the commissions, not the spread, not the execution speed, not the software, not the connection. And that's why it's so good.

But even the 10k deposit is not a dangerous thing if you are not reckless, because you could paper trade, and even paper trade your automated systems, until you're positive that you are profitable. Of course, if you're a compulsive gambler (like I've been), there's no safety with this broker or any other broker. But with this broker you will definitely find out that you're a compulsive gambler, whereas with another broker you may never know if you're losing because you're doing something wrong or because you're getting screwed by the broker or spreadbetting company.

I mean, in 1997 i started by trading options that had a spread of 30%. That meant that I bought something at 60and I could only sell it back at 40. So that option would have to rise by about 30% just to cover spread costs. Now my spread is 1 tick on the EUR, which means 0.0001/1.5 = 0.01%, if I am not wrong, because it seems too little. Of course the EUR won't double in value, so maybe it's not a good comparison.

Well, let's say that if I was right that option would go from 40 to 100 in a week. I'd have lost 20 points to spread, 20/60=0.33, so 33% of my gain. Today the equivalent would be to make 4000 dollars on the EUR in one week, and the 12.5 dollars one-tick spread on the EUR is only 12.5/4000=0.003, that is 0.3% of my profit being eroded. So back then I lost 100% times as much to spread costs. This in time has improved constantly, spread by changing instruments and commissions have improved by changing brokers.... other things improved simply because of technology.

I sent my orders via fax to the broker, hoping he wouldn't be on a coffee break.. now my order gets executed in less than a second. The software to see charts and prices was telekurs if I recall correctly, and it cost my bank more than 10k per year, now that information and much more is practically free on TWS and even free on the internet. Many things improved because of technology but other things because I chose the right instruments and broker. Back in 2003 I was doing futures with an Italian broker and what now costs me 2 dollars in commissions, cost me 20 dollars back in 2003.

It is important to gradually solve all these problems: brokers, instruments, software, knowledge of the markets... until you're left with just having to deal with yourself. I kept improving everything and solving all those technical problems until I was left with just this question: do i want to make money or what? And I am still dealing with this question. I still don't know the answer.
 
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Yes, you're welcome. I like explaining things.

If that book analysis makes any sense, today's high at 116'060 is not a major level of resistance, at least not as much as the support we saw earlier.

Snap1.jpg

That's market depth, and now let's see how the chart reflects those higher quantities on the bid and on the ask... it does. So maybe this thing is reliable on the ZN. For the other markets I didn't find it helpful.

Snap2.jpg

As I wrote, seiden, who's an order flow expert, says that it's all contained in the chart, and that market depth and volume are not useful.
 
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Yes, you're welcome. I like explaining things.

If that book analysis makes any sense, today's high at 116'060 is not a major level of resistance, at least not as much as the support we saw earlier.

View attachment 73274

That's market depth, and now let's see how the chart reflects those higher quantities on the bid and on the ask... it does. So maybe this thing is reliable on the ZN. For the other markets I didn't find it helpful.

View attachment 73276

As I wrote, seiden, who's an order flow expert, says that it's all contained in the chart, and that market depth and volume are not useful.
I'm sorry Trav, I think I missed that. What exactly does the chart thats trending sideways show here ?
 
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