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Yamato
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Wow, you were quite right. Thanks for the information. I closed the ZN for a profit of 500. Made another 300 on the GBP, at the end of the 14.30 CET rise. And now SHORT on the CL. I started the day with 2700 and now I have 3900. I believe the CL is heavily overbought and declining. So I went SHORT on it and I hope I will get back the 3000 it owes me by the end of the day. I am expecting it to lose 3 points by the end of the day. That's exactly the 3000 it owes me. SHORT on it with no stoploss: I don't want any surprises, like losing another 2000 on a false breakout.
If I can get back to my usual capital of 6k, then we can start talking about trading more carefully with patiently studied trades. I think that's what my discretionary trading is missing. Patience and care in choosing each trade. I should only make one or two trades per day, chosen very carefully, or none at all.
If I can get back to my usual capital of 6k, then we can start talking about trading more carefully with patiently studied trades. I think that's what my discretionary trading is missing. Patience and care in choosing each trade. I should only make one or two trades per day, chosen very carefully, or none at all.
counter_violent
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I know i'll get shot down for saying it...but oh well !
The stakes being used on this trading account are way too high.
The stakes being used on this trading account are way too high.
Yamato
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Yes, of course, I can't diversify at all, and that's one of the problems. But I have no choice. These are the futures I can trade. As I said in previous posts, for various reasons I don't find it convenient to open an account with spreadbetting companies, which would allow me to diversify as I need.
But the main problem is in my behaviour. When I had 30k, I used it to double up, triple up... and more on losing positions. That's partly how I brought 30k to 3k (also, I've repaid a loan of 10k). Once I had 10 CL contracts open at once, because I was trying to pick a bottom which wouldn't happen and I did the usual martingale betting. Anyway, that gambling madness is part of the past. It's all witnessed in many posts written over a month ago.
But the main problem is in my behaviour. When I had 30k, I used it to double up, triple up... and more on losing positions. That's partly how I brought 30k to 3k (also, I've repaid a loan of 10k). Once I had 10 CL contracts open at once, because I was trying to pick a bottom which wouldn't happen and I did the usual martingale betting. Anyway, that gambling madness is part of the past. It's all witnessed in many posts written over a month ago.
Yamato
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All this money I made today I owe it to the taxi driver whom I dreamed. I was on a cab, watching outside the window for a long time, and then we arrived at a sea port, and the cab driver turned to me. And I said "you know we're in a dream, right? You still want me to pay you?". He was polite but he said "well, actually yes...". So I made myself wake up, because I had no money. Then I woke up at 14.50 CET and I saw this awesome situation: the ZN up 500 dollars, and I closed it. The GBP overbought, and I sold it. And the CL in the middle of its range, but on a day that will see a big fall in my opinion, and went short on it. Of course, if I had slept and dreamed more in the past, I wouldn't have lost all the money I've lost. When I was at 10k for example, the systems could have handled it. At least I'd still be at 10k.
Some time ago I met a famous trader and analyst at a seminar.
Among other things he pointed about being nice to yourself and spending some profit on whatever you fancy, otherwise market will take it back.
Before that I was under the impression that market hardly ever takes money from him and I found that funny, so I laughed at that comment.
On that reaction of mine he said that it's not meant to be funny and that he is quite serious about it.
Among other things he pointed about being nice to yourself and spending some profit on whatever you fancy, otherwise market will take it back.
Before that I was under the impression that market hardly ever takes money from him and I found that funny, so I laughed at that comment.
On that reaction of mine he said that it's not meant to be funny and that he is quite serious about it.
Yamato
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Well, my little experience is that when I spent some of the gains from trading, this didn't prevent me from losing the rest. I was thinking the same thing as the analyst and so that's what I did.
If i had to analyze my past behaviour and try to see what I did in a period where I made the most money it would be november 2008. I tripled my account in one month, bringing it from 8k to 26k. It was a mix of systems and gambling, with the usual martingale methods: if you have a lot of money, it's hard to lose, but if you lose, you almost blow out your account.
Another good period was march to july 2008. I did nothing, just ran the systems. I guess my best periods were always when I just ran the systems and had over 10k.
With 5k you're either lucky or get nowhere.
The fact is i still do not have a profitable system outside my automated ones. Even today i was kind of gambling: not compulsively, but still gambling, because i did not use a stoploss. Reason: false breakouts. Maybe not good enough a reason.
If i had to analyze my past behaviour and try to see what I did in a period where I made the most money it would be november 2008. I tripled my account in one month, bringing it from 8k to 26k. It was a mix of systems and gambling, with the usual martingale methods: if you have a lot of money, it's hard to lose, but if you lose, you almost blow out your account.
Another good period was march to july 2008. I did nothing, just ran the systems. I guess my best periods were always when I just ran the systems and had over 10k.
With 5k you're either lucky or get nowhere.
The fact is i still do not have a profitable system outside my automated ones. Even today i was kind of gambling: not compulsively, but still gambling, because i did not use a stoploss. Reason: false breakouts. Maybe not good enough a reason.
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Yamato
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Yamato
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Unfortunately the CL trade is not going well at all. It fell but then it went back up. I didn't care at all about support and resistance and kept it, because I assumed it would break through it, after rising for over 2 weeks, and having two red days.
One hour from margin call and I am down 600 dollars.
One hour from margin call and I am down 600 dollars.
Yamato
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Ok, it looks like I might end the day back at 4000. Quite good considering that I was at 2700 just yesterday.
If there is one lesson that I have to retain from these 12 years of gambling and from today is: no impulse trading, from now on I must do careful planning for each trade.
I'd say: one hour of planning per trade, and each trade should last a few hours. They should all potentially be 1000 dollars trades, with a risk of just 100 dollars.
If there is one lesson that I have to retain from these 12 years of gambling and from today is: no impulse trading, from now on I must do careful planning for each trade.
I'd say: one hour of planning per trade, and each trade should last a few hours. They should all potentially be 1000 dollars trades, with a risk of just 100 dollars.
Yamato
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COMMITMENT TO BEAT MY COMPULSIVENESS AND IMPULSIVENESS
Just this rule: no trading unless you have planned it for one hour and have screened all 9 futures. No impulse trades. And every trade must have its stoploss and you must use all your knowledge and also consider the risk of false breakouts and all that.
Down with impulse trading. No more impulse trading. No trades unless you screened all futures first, and considered s/r levels, everything basically. All must be done perfectly from now on.
All planning must be done here in front of everyone, on the journal.
I've gotten rid of all hotkeys, from now on I'll do everything from the chart, via Chart Trader. Got rid of market orders as well.
Whoever said that to trade well you have to be fast? That's total crap. I don't know how subconsciously I always had that feeling.
Instead I have to be slow, and spend more time planning. If I put one hour of work into each trade there's no way that I will fail. I'm going to bring my account back to 20k and finally I'll be able to stop working. Because one hour of work per trade is indeed going to be quite demanding. I'm therefore back to the sniper approach, who waits a whole before making his one daily shot. One shot one kill.
Just this rule: no trading unless you have planned it for one hour and have screened all 9 futures. No impulse trades. And every trade must have its stoploss and you must use all your knowledge and also consider the risk of false breakouts and all that.
Down with impulse trading. No more impulse trading. No trades unless you screened all futures first, and considered s/r levels, everything basically. All must be done perfectly from now on.
All planning must be done here in front of everyone, on the journal.
I've gotten rid of all hotkeys, from now on I'll do everything from the chart, via Chart Trader. Got rid of market orders as well.
Whoever said that to trade well you have to be fast? That's total crap. I don't know how subconsciously I always had that feeling.
Instead I have to be slow, and spend more time planning. If I put one hour of work into each trade there's no way that I will fail. I'm going to bring my account back to 20k and finally I'll be able to stop working. Because one hour of work per trade is indeed going to be quite demanding. I'm therefore back to the sniper approach, who waits a whole before making his one daily shot. One shot one kill.
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Yamato
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Ok, I'm done. I close the EUR as well. The next trade will need one hour of planning and screening of all futures, and stoploss and take profit.
I will be looking for price reaching major support/resistance, getting there oversold/overbought, and possibly getting there at 22.00 CET
I will be looking for price reaching major support/resistance, getting there oversold/overbought, and possibly getting there at 22.00 CET
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Yamato
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Prospective trades on Monday
I will try to analyze these potential trades based on what the s/r videos by seiden made me understand: that there's most covenient sections of the trends to predict. At least that's the way I figure this thing out, and my thinking originated from watching the videos, even though maybe that's not what they say.
Here's a summary of what I perceived to be true. The red circles in the picture below are the most predictable patterns, the ones I should bet on. In summary, in early to middle downtrend we should pick the down moves, but only as far as reaching the previously reached support, because it's not safe to bet on a breakout (it could be the beginning of a range, or the down trend could have stopped). As soon as a range begins and the down trend is oversold, or even sooner, when it's very oversold, we should start betting on the up moves, but again only the section of the move that brings us to the previous resistance. Viceversa for the uptrend.
These are the possible situations and the trades allowed:
OVERSOLD DOWN TREND, RANGE AFTER DOWN TREND, EARLY TO MIDDLE UP TREND: LONG ONLY.
VICEVERSA: SHORT ONLY.
UP TREND AFTER RANGE AFTER UP TREND (POTENTIAL FALSE BREAKOUT) and VICEVERSA: STAY OUT
Obviously one must adapt these strategies to the different markets: ES and YM tend to go up more than down, currencies go up as much as down, etc., so overbought in YM and ES is not the same as overbought in currencies.
Here's an analysis of the potential trades, future by future (I trade 9 of them), according to the principle described above, and according other knowledge. I am going to divide the groups by "UP MOVE" and "DOWN MOVE". The first group means I should be looking for an upmove because we're in an oversold down trend, range, or early up trend. The second group means I should be looking for a down move because we're in an overbought up trend, range, or early down trend. There will be a third group of UNCERTAIN situations.
UP MOVE
eur
Long from major support, very oversold. I can only go long on this guy if he goes back to the bottom of today. Or else it would not be safe. Most likely the intraday trend will be up, so I cannot go short upon overnight reversal, because it would be unsafe: it could keep rising even at night.
gbp
Long from major support, very oversold. I can only go long on this guy if he goes back to the bottom of today. Or else it would not be safe. Most likely the intraday trend will be up, so I cannot go short upon overnight reversal, because it would be unsafe: it could keep rising even at night.
jpy
Long from intermediate support, very oversold. I do not expect this guy to bottom again. I will accept an intermediate support level and go long from that. Most likely the intraday trend will be up, so I cannot go short upon overnight reversal, because it would be unsafe: it could keep rising even at night.
gbl
Long from intermediate support, oversold. I do not expect this guy to get to its bottom again. I will accept an intermediate support level and go long from that (I should have gone long tonight before the close, but I was in the bath tub, and I hadn't planned it ahead). Most likely the intraday trend will be up, so I cannot go short upon overnight reversal, because it would be unsafe: it could keep rising even at night.
zn
Long from intermediate support, very oversold. I do not expect this guy to get to its bottom again. I will accept an intermediate support level and go long from that (I could still go long now and it would make sense, but I feel that i'd be rushing to trade, and that might come from my trading addiction, so I'll postpone the execution by a few hours: next time I will have planned it ahead, so there will be no fear of trading addiction). Most likely the intraday trend will be up, so I cannot go short upon overnight reversal, because it would be unsafe: it could keep rising even at night.
DOWN MOVE
Only CL for now, but maybe GC, ES and YM in the near future.
cl
Short from major resistance, very overbought. This one is very easy in my opinion. It's very overbought and if it were to reach 83 again, I would certainly short it. With a stoploss above the record high of today. Hmm, I'll have to think about that: I don't want any false breakouts like yesterday. I guess I'll use a very tight stoploss, so if it has to be a false breakout it will only cost me 20 ticks. So, I'd wait for the reversal to happen, and then enter late, once it's quite distant from the resistance. Because I know how they can screw me in that area. This is otherwise the best trade there is. Very volatile as always the CL could give me my money back just with one trade. It currently owes me 3300.
UNCERTAIN
es
Problem: no nearby resistance and not overbought. It would seem like an early uptrend, but it's too overbought for risking it, as it could be a false breakout. This is not a safe play in either direction.
ym
Problem: no nearby resistance and not overbought. It would seem like an early uptrend, but it's too overbought for risking it, as it could be a false breakout. This is not a safe play in either direction.
gc
Not sure where it will go. This is not a safe play in either direction.
This is probably a rough draft and I'll need more work on this stuff, but it's giving me an idea of how asymmetrical my trading should be and how much work needs to be done in preparation for each trade. It's not going to be like for those traders who make 200 trades a day and make money every day: I cannot do it. They can, but I can't. So I'll have to use this method. Long planning, long waiting, long holding (holding the position open for hours). If I try and make those 5 minute trades, I end up losing my patience and losing my money. I almost don't know yet what s/r are, so I cannot keep on figuring out new s/r levels on an ever-changing 1 minute candles chart.
I guess things won't change much during the week. More or less, what is overbought will stay overbought for a whole week (if it rises, it will be even more overbought, whereas if it falls, it will be the beginning of a reversal which should last a while), and viceversa.
The problem are those range situations, where I cannot tell where it will go. On the other hand, those situations could also be played according to support and resistance, but I feel the outcome is less probable. Maybe I will change my mind in the next few weeks, if I can keep focused on this new method for a few weeks. This journal is a reminder of how many methods I changed. There's only so many more methods I can try before realizing and admitting that I am not improving but only changing over and over again.
However, if I can keep this one constant of carefully planning each trade, then I'll be ok, no matter what methods I try. In the sense that I could even decide to trade the 14.30 CET news, but if I plan it ahead it is ok, because actually I've always made money at 14.30. Because it just keeps on reversing every minute and giving you the money you'd make in many hours during other moments. It either goes up and down or it goes down and up. The part where it goes up is not easy to predict for me, but the second part, where it falls back is quite easy. It starts slowing down, and then it reverses and keeps going back to where it started. Anyway, this is to say that even this type of quick trades can be ok, if I plan it carefully and consider all its potential consequences. Like a failed stoploss or a false breakout and so. I must not put myself in a situation where I lose control of my trade and I lose thousands of dollars, no matter how unlikely that is. In the most extreme situation, I should say: "my risk is 2000 dollars, as it will happen once in 100 times". That is a stoploss. It's ridiculous but it's a stoploss, because I am keeping in mind my maximum predetermined loss.
If I could limit myself to 1 trade per day (the best opportunity I see) or even some days no trade at all, it would be a guarantee for profitability and for a trading that is not addictive. However, this change is already good enough and if I create too many rules I will simply quit in just a few days, so let's not create yet another requirement, since I don't like rules. The only rule should be planning hours ahead, watching s/r levels, and planning to have a stoploss and a takeprofit (which could be anticipated if it is almost reached and the market turns around after a few hours).
I will try to analyze these potential trades based on what the s/r videos by seiden made me understand: that there's most covenient sections of the trends to predict. At least that's the way I figure this thing out, and my thinking originated from watching the videos, even though maybe that's not what they say.
Here's a summary of what I perceived to be true. The red circles in the picture below are the most predictable patterns, the ones I should bet on. In summary, in early to middle downtrend we should pick the down moves, but only as far as reaching the previously reached support, because it's not safe to bet on a breakout (it could be the beginning of a range, or the down trend could have stopped). As soon as a range begins and the down trend is oversold, or even sooner, when it's very oversold, we should start betting on the up moves, but again only the section of the move that brings us to the previous resistance. Viceversa for the uptrend.
These are the possible situations and the trades allowed:
OVERSOLD DOWN TREND, RANGE AFTER DOWN TREND, EARLY TO MIDDLE UP TREND: LONG ONLY.
VICEVERSA: SHORT ONLY.
UP TREND AFTER RANGE AFTER UP TREND (POTENTIAL FALSE BREAKOUT) and VICEVERSA: STAY OUT
Obviously one must adapt these strategies to the different markets: ES and YM tend to go up more than down, currencies go up as much as down, etc., so overbought in YM and ES is not the same as overbought in currencies.
Here's an analysis of the potential trades, future by future (I trade 9 of them), according to the principle described above, and according other knowledge. I am going to divide the groups by "UP MOVE" and "DOWN MOVE". The first group means I should be looking for an upmove because we're in an oversold down trend, range, or early up trend. The second group means I should be looking for a down move because we're in an overbought up trend, range, or early down trend. There will be a third group of UNCERTAIN situations.
UP MOVE
eur
Long from major support, very oversold. I can only go long on this guy if he goes back to the bottom of today. Or else it would not be safe. Most likely the intraday trend will be up, so I cannot go short upon overnight reversal, because it would be unsafe: it could keep rising even at night.
gbp
Long from major support, very oversold. I can only go long on this guy if he goes back to the bottom of today. Or else it would not be safe. Most likely the intraday trend will be up, so I cannot go short upon overnight reversal, because it would be unsafe: it could keep rising even at night.
jpy
Long from intermediate support, very oversold. I do not expect this guy to bottom again. I will accept an intermediate support level and go long from that. Most likely the intraday trend will be up, so I cannot go short upon overnight reversal, because it would be unsafe: it could keep rising even at night.
gbl
Long from intermediate support, oversold. I do not expect this guy to get to its bottom again. I will accept an intermediate support level and go long from that (I should have gone long tonight before the close, but I was in the bath tub, and I hadn't planned it ahead). Most likely the intraday trend will be up, so I cannot go short upon overnight reversal, because it would be unsafe: it could keep rising even at night.
zn
Long from intermediate support, very oversold. I do not expect this guy to get to its bottom again. I will accept an intermediate support level and go long from that (I could still go long now and it would make sense, but I feel that i'd be rushing to trade, and that might come from my trading addiction, so I'll postpone the execution by a few hours: next time I will have planned it ahead, so there will be no fear of trading addiction). Most likely the intraday trend will be up, so I cannot go short upon overnight reversal, because it would be unsafe: it could keep rising even at night.
DOWN MOVE
Only CL for now, but maybe GC, ES and YM in the near future.
cl
Short from major resistance, very overbought. This one is very easy in my opinion. It's very overbought and if it were to reach 83 again, I would certainly short it. With a stoploss above the record high of today. Hmm, I'll have to think about that: I don't want any false breakouts like yesterday. I guess I'll use a very tight stoploss, so if it has to be a false breakout it will only cost me 20 ticks. So, I'd wait for the reversal to happen, and then enter late, once it's quite distant from the resistance. Because I know how they can screw me in that area. This is otherwise the best trade there is. Very volatile as always the CL could give me my money back just with one trade. It currently owes me 3300.
UNCERTAIN
es
Problem: no nearby resistance and not overbought. It would seem like an early uptrend, but it's too overbought for risking it, as it could be a false breakout. This is not a safe play in either direction.
ym
Problem: no nearby resistance and not overbought. It would seem like an early uptrend, but it's too overbought for risking it, as it could be a false breakout. This is not a safe play in either direction.
gc
Not sure where it will go. This is not a safe play in either direction.
This is probably a rough draft and I'll need more work on this stuff, but it's giving me an idea of how asymmetrical my trading should be and how much work needs to be done in preparation for each trade. It's not going to be like for those traders who make 200 trades a day and make money every day: I cannot do it. They can, but I can't. So I'll have to use this method. Long planning, long waiting, long holding (holding the position open for hours). If I try and make those 5 minute trades, I end up losing my patience and losing my money. I almost don't know yet what s/r are, so I cannot keep on figuring out new s/r levels on an ever-changing 1 minute candles chart.
I guess things won't change much during the week. More or less, what is overbought will stay overbought for a whole week (if it rises, it will be even more overbought, whereas if it falls, it will be the beginning of a reversal which should last a while), and viceversa.
The problem are those range situations, where I cannot tell where it will go. On the other hand, those situations could also be played according to support and resistance, but I feel the outcome is less probable. Maybe I will change my mind in the next few weeks, if I can keep focused on this new method for a few weeks. This journal is a reminder of how many methods I changed. There's only so many more methods I can try before realizing and admitting that I am not improving but only changing over and over again.
However, if I can keep this one constant of carefully planning each trade, then I'll be ok, no matter what methods I try. In the sense that I could even decide to trade the 14.30 CET news, but if I plan it ahead it is ok, because actually I've always made money at 14.30. Because it just keeps on reversing every minute and giving you the money you'd make in many hours during other moments. It either goes up and down or it goes down and up. The part where it goes up is not easy to predict for me, but the second part, where it falls back is quite easy. It starts slowing down, and then it reverses and keeps going back to where it started. Anyway, this is to say that even this type of quick trades can be ok, if I plan it carefully and consider all its potential consequences. Like a failed stoploss or a false breakout and so. I must not put myself in a situation where I lose control of my trade and I lose thousands of dollars, no matter how unlikely that is. In the most extreme situation, I should say: "my risk is 2000 dollars, as it will happen once in 100 times". That is a stoploss. It's ridiculous but it's a stoploss, because I am keeping in mind my maximum predetermined loss.
If I could limit myself to 1 trade per day (the best opportunity I see) or even some days no trade at all, it would be a guarantee for profitability and for a trading that is not addictive. However, this change is already good enough and if I create too many rules I will simply quit in just a few days, so let's not create yet another requirement, since I don't like rules. The only rule should be planning hours ahead, watching s/r levels, and planning to have a stoploss and a takeprofit (which could be anticipated if it is almost reached and the market turns around after a few hours).
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Yamato
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This paulie to me is not just a violent character from the sopranos. He shows the power of determination. He can win over two guys stronger than him because he's got the determination to knock one out with a shovel. And he has the determination because he has the knowledge. I would like to trade like paulie does his business, hitting the market in the knee (like in the video below), or in the head with a shovel. Just a small little trade like buying at support, that is at the same time extremely powerful in terms of risk/reward (and percentage of success): with no effort (risk), you knock him out (reward) always (% of wins). At the start of the video there's a voice quoting Sun Tzu: "One. He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight". Sounds perfect advice for my overtrading.
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Yamato
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Some parts were cut from the first video, to summarize the whole thing. Here below is the whole purgatory conversation. Above is the talk with the priest, which is not seen in the summary. Both priceless. The whole Sopranos is a masterpiece.
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Yamato
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Yamato
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- Status
