my journal 3

Yamato

Well-known member
Mar 22, 2003
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Ok, I closed all the mother ****ing gambling trades, one by one. All in all, I lost about 1000 dollars. Wow. Great idea to engage in compulsive gambling - of course it wasn't an idea but an irresistible urge. On the other hand, I had made 600 one day earlier. So from my latest discretionary trading binge, I came out with limited damage. Yeah. Only lost about 400 dollars.

Lets try not to forget it.
 

Yamato

Well-known member
Mar 22, 2003
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"that's how honest I am..." said my roommate coming back from a 2 and a half hours lunch break (instead of 50 minutes), referring to how he is going to help a colleague who has asked him for help (with office work).

years of slacking off can really skew your sense of honesty

then he went to brush his teeth, and now he's back, making a non-work phone call to a friend of his

...

this guy... he feels that honesty is doing something for the office at least for one hour per day

to me honesty means working at least 90% of the time, to him it means working at least 10% of the time

what a pathetic place I am in, and not just my office, but the whole country of Italy I would say
 
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Yamato

Well-known member
Mar 22, 2003
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US Presidential Election Winner Betting Odds | Politics and Election Betting

Snap1.jpg

ouch!

14% for obama's win
450% for romney's win

Romney's chances (according to the bookies) have never been this low.

This means that if you bet 100 on obama's win and he loses, you lose 100 dollars, but if he wins, you only win 14 dollars, With romney, you risk 100 and stand to gain 450. Amazing. It's like saying that Obama has already won.

the bookies are very biased against romney, and yet my conspiracy buddies and I are pretty sure that romney will win. Could we be wrong?

Oh, get out of here - lindsey williams and alex jones told me that it's clearly the case that romney will win because the powers that be are with him.

I stick by my hypothetical bet (since betfair.it won't accept my proof of address documents).

another thing is this: why don't the newspapers say the same thing that the bookies say?

1) the bookies know something that the newspapers ignore
2) the bookies know something that the newspapers know but don't say (then the question is why)
3) the newspapers know something that the bookies ignore

The third one is improbable but let's not forget who owns the newspapers: the powers that be, the same powers who, according to us conspiracy theorists, have the power to decide who wins. So maybe they have decided that romney will win, and the newspapers act accordingly - which could also explain #2 and why the newspapers don't talk about the huge advantage that obama has.

The most probable thing is #2, and the most probable answer as to why they don't say it, is that they don't want to ruin romney's chances, and it could also be that romney will win through rigging the vote, because the powers that be exist and they simply have decided that romney will be the next president.

If instead romney loses, then it means that the powers that be are not that powerful. And it also means that our conspiracy theories are more theories and less facts than I thought.
 
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Yamato

Well-known member
Mar 22, 2003
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I updated my .pls winamp file of conspiracy radios. It is an excellent list of radios. Just save it as .pls and click it on winamp. It is much better than all the mainstream news put together:

[playlist]
File1=http://high.freetalklive.com
Title1=Latest Episode - Next Live Show At 7pm ET (Free Talk Live - 64k)
Length1=-1
File2=http://s6.voscast.com:7620
Title2=ÿþ - ÿþ - ÿþ (JUST MEASURES RADIO)
Length2=-1
File3=http://s1.voscast.com:7880
Title3=broadwave.mp3?src=1&kbps=48&ref=http%3A%2F%2F127.0.0.1%3A88%2F (Orion Talk Radio)
Length3=-1
File4=http://high.lrn.fm
Title4= (LRN.FM - The Liberty Radio Network - 64k Broadband)
Length4=-1
File5=http://216.240.133.177:2005/
Title5=National Intel Report (Republic Broadcasting Network)
Length5=-1
File6=http://gcnplayer.gcnlive.com:80/channel2-lo.mp3
Title6=Robert Redding - Redding News Review - Live (Genesis Communications Network: Channel 2 - Low Bitrate)
Length6=-1
File7=http://184.82.196.86:8228
Title7= (American Freedom Radio)
Length7=-1
File8=http://64k.oraclebroadcasting.com:80
Title8=Doug Owen - Black Listed News Radio - Free podcasts OracleBroadcasting.com (Oracle Broadcasting - The Home Of Cutting Edge Talk Radio)
Length8=-1
File9=http://stream1.infowars.com
Title9=Replay - Hr 1 (PrisonPlanet.com) (Alex Jones - Infowars.com)
Length9=-1
NumberOfEntries=9
Version=2
 

Yamato

Well-known member
Mar 22, 2003
9,840
245
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my intuition on the markets was pretty good, the problem is that, as jesse livermore would say, I didn't "sit tight". I was right but i didn't sit tight, he would say.

And I didn't sit tight because, as they say, scared money never made any money.

I knew that as the election approached the markets would rise. But nonetheless I was so glad to be out of those gambling decisions with such a small loss (about 400 dollars considering I had made 600 dollars the day before) that I got out as soon as possible.

Had I stuck with the two trades, I would come out with a profit of 2000 dollars.

It sucks.

But such is the nature of the under-capitalized compulsive gambler. When he's wrong he loses, and when he's right, he loses as well.

To do thing properly I would need about 50k. 30k for the systems. And 20k to trade... even just 10k, to trade as i please.

Instead I try to do both and I am too impatient for it. I suck. I suck... I suck.

The problem is that I have to deal with the animal in me. I am not just a series of optimized macros. I am a beast. Not as much as my roommate and coworkers, but still a beast. Those assholes are 90% beasts. I am 10% beast. But the beast always comes out when I am trading.
 

Yamato

Well-known member
Mar 22, 2003
9,840
245
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Yo, this thing keeps changing, on a minute by minute basis. Now Romney is at 43.

US Presidential Election Winner Betting Odds | Politics and Election Betting

...

Damn!

This article by an American in Milan says that bookmakers are never wrong:
Futures e bookmakers: così ho seguito le mie elezioni Usa (e conosco già il risultato) | La città nuova
Dal 1868 al 1940 (quando scommetere sulle elezioni era legale) il favorito dai bookmakers ha vinto ogni elezione, con l’eccezione di Woodrow Wilson nel 1916 (di per sé un’anomalia: resta l’unico candidato ad aver vinto un’elezione perdendo nel proprio Stato).
If this is the case, and I believe it is, then I am screwed. I called romney's win for an entire month, and I and all my conspiracy theorists friends were wrong big time. Let's wait a few more hours though.

...

ouch. now romney is at 57.50 at one of the bookmakers:
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner
never been so low

by the way, some of these companies have closed the betting on this subject
 
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Yamato

Well-known member
Mar 22, 2003
9,840
245
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Oh, good, I was wrong and Obama won. So I guess this means a few things:

1) Lindsey Williams isn't always right
2) Alex Jones isn't always right
3) the powers that be might not exist or they might not be as powerful as they're thought by conspiracy theorists
4) the bookies are usually right as that guy said

This is very important.

A journal is always useful. You see, as I call trades and profit and then it doesn't happen, and I realize my limits in predicting the markets, I am now realizing our limits in predicting conspiracies.

I've been in the "conspiracy theorist" community for six months now, and I've already witnessed two wrong predictions:
1) London Olympics: the major false flag attack expected did not take place
2) Romney didn't win

And that's all they ever predicted.

So either the powers that be do not exist, or they change their plans all the time, or they're not that powerful.

At the same time we cannot forget that 911 did take place and it was definitely a false flag attack engineered by elements within the US government.

Maybe we could say that the newspapers aren't as wrong/false as we conspiracy theorists consider them, and our alternative media isn't as right as it claims to be.

For example, now the next expected thing is the end of dollar by the end of December. This is what Lindsey Williams said with absolute certainty.

In other words, my trading has no future if this happens.

Another thing, by March 2013 is RFID chip for everyone under ObamaCare.

Then there's Nibiru, pretty soon, too: either a collision with earth or a near-miss.

Maybe many of these conspiracy journalists are not very different from those saying that Elvis is alive, and write to keep us entertained.

I need to listen to Corbett more and Alex Jones less. I need to stay away from "sensationalism", whether it takes place in mainstream media or alternative media:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensationalism
Sensationalism is a type of editorial bias in mass media in which events and topics in news stories and pieces are over-hyped to increase viewership or readership numbers.
The media engaging in that behavior sucks. And it is as frequent in the conspiracy theorists community as it is in the mainstream media.
 
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Benj1981

Well-known member
Jun 30, 2012
694
108
53
Having listened to an interview pre-election, Williams appeared to "think" Romney would win as that's who the elite supported, but he also said that they aren't God like they think they are - inferring they're not in control of the whole world (yet). He predicts "fistfights" between the elite and Obama now.
 
Likes: Yamato

Yamato

Well-known member
Mar 22, 2003
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Oh, wow, you're following closely the conspiracy theorists. I am amazed that there's someone as "crazy" as I am. I thought I was talking to myself all this time.

Thanks for the feedback.

I guess what he really meant by "they aren't God like they think they are" is "they aren't God like Alex Jones says they are", but since he was talking to him, he couldn't say it.

At the same time, I may be misquoting and misunderstanding some of this stuff because I am dealing with information overload, due to trying to look at all these conspiracy theories and listening to all these conspiracy theorists. I definitely have to focus more, and do more quality and less quantity. In other words I should listen/read three sources, rather than thirty. And spend 2 hours on each source rather than 5 minutes.

Information overload - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"Information overload" (nicknamed infobesity) is a term popularized by Alvin Toffler in his bestselling 1970 book Future Shock. It refers to the difficulty a person can have understanding an issue and making decisions that can be caused by the presence of too much information.
 
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Yamato

Well-known member
Mar 22, 2003
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In case no one noticed, today there seems to be good opportunities on GBL, ZN, NG. Just saying.

I guess my compulsive gambling hasn't gone away, because the markets still owe me some of the money they took from me.

Whichever way it goes, I am drawn to blowing out my account:

1) if it goes well, I have to trade more because I am profitable
2) if I lose money, I have to trade more because the market owes me

Now I feel the urge to trade more because the market owes me about 400 dollars.

I think I am going to go short on GBL/ZN, depending which one is more overbought by the time I come home. I'd go long on NG in case it's still at 3.560 as it is now. But the safer bet is ZN.

Just two more hours until I go home. My roommate is out to lunch, which usually means two hours of peace.

Now, think of this. If the presidential election didn't cause the markets to be bullish for longer than a few hours, then this means they're very bearish. So they could come down a lot more. At the same time, the US treasury note futures have never been higher than 135, so at this point, why not go short on them, especially considering the low margin they require. Furthermore, from wed to fri the markets are usually more bullish. So, yeah, I'll definitely go short on ZN in case it's still at 133'11 by the time I get home.
 
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Yamato

Well-known member
Mar 22, 2003
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Got it!

Short on ZN and GBL - takeprofit of 300 dollars on each.

Takeprofits on two short trades opened by the systems as well, on NG and CL.

Feeling great. Won't touch anything until these takeprofits get triggered.

Awesome volatility.
 

Yamato

Well-known member
Mar 22, 2003
9,840
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Oh, dude, this is all useless because Nibiru is about to hit earth, within a few hours or weeks:
Asteroid 'Nibiru' On Collision Course With Earth, According To NASA Whistleblowers - CNN iReport
According to leaks by unnamed NASA employees and scientists, an asteroid dubbed 'Nibiru' is heading in a direct path towards earth, with up to 30% chance of collision.

Understandably NASA is keeping quiet for the moment as to not incite panic, and to get all the facts before making an official press release. Though some unconfirmed rumours include the asteroid being the size of texas, and the estimated date of collision being some time during November-December 2012. NASA has neither confirmed or denied any of these claims.
I mean, it is on the CNN website, so this time it might all be true, given that both conspiracy theorists and mainstream media agree on it.

I think we should celebrate this thing with some sparkling wine and some music, number 9, titled "Nino":
Richard Galliano Library - Free listening

Oh wow, this is great, too:
10 Des Voiliers (on a poem of Claude Nougaro) (9:12)
 
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Yamato

Well-known member
Mar 22, 2003
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time to watch Deep Impact, the movie about what might soon happen to us:
Watch Deep Impact (1998) Online for FREE - LetMeWatchThis
Watch Deep Impact online - download DeepImpact - on 1Channel | LetMeWatchThis

Morgan Freeman - Deep Impact - Impacto Profundo (Legendado) - Video

One of these should work. It wasn't easy to find.

Oh, good. The one at metacafe works.

Go figure, the president in the movie is black. I wonder if this is what's called "predictive programming", given that I heard somewhere that they knew we were going to have Obama as president several years in advance.

...

the movie is crap but it still brings some useful points of view

right. In my opinion these guys behind the film know something that average people do not know about the things to come:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Impact_(film)
Deep Impact is a 1998 American science fiction film[1] directed by Mimi Leder, written by Bruce Joel Rubin and Michael Tolkin...
who are these guys?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mimi_Leder
interesting plot of the movies she directed but no relevant info

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Joel_Rubin
no relevant info - science fiction scripts

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Tolkin
Oh, ok, he's the mind. He directed this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rapture_(film)

No big deal probably. There's movies on every subject and conspiracy theories on every subject. Nibiru might hit us, but these guys might have not known about it. It was just a screenplay. Or rather, they might have known about theory, which has been around for at least 15 years. That doesn't make it true. That doesn't make me rule it out either. I hope the meteorite, if it hits us, will hit my roommate first.
 
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