Doomberg's Dow Futures Journal

[Doomberg]

Some of you may remember my last day trading journal, it had it's ups and it had it's downs like most, but i learned two things: 1) I do have a talent at trading but it needs to be refined because 2) The downs were too big and were usually down to lack of discipline and struggling to let go of losing trades and then losing control. To help fix this problem i will be using a lock feature on my account, if i lose 20 points in a day then my account will be locked until the next day. If anyone would like to see my previous performance and downfalls, you can here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/131416-doombergs-journal-ticking-along-nicely.html

Since my last journal i have still been trading, but just not been able to give it 100%, however i am now in a situation where i can take this seriously again. I have now moved on to futures and feel very comfortable with the broker i'm using, at least with futures you know that there is no hidden agendas, so it feels a bit safer than spreadbetting or cfd's where the prices are made by the broker. If anyone is ready to move on to futures i'd highly recommend Infinity Futures, the commissions are excellent, but most importantly i feel that on Josh and Patricks team i get a great service, you'll know what i mean if you ever work with them.

Ok, this journal starts off on a high as i bagged a +50 trade today, typically i will be looking for 10 - 30 points per day, with a max loss of 20 points per day, however today i really liked the look of the trade hence why i held it until i was up 50 points, the Dow Futures nosed 14,000 and i expected a big sell off from that point. I feel that chasing massive numbers of points per day is counter productive in general, so i'll be taking that in to account. Volatility is down compared to 2011, so it's highly unlikely that there will be up days of 100+ points anyway. My aim is slow and consistent gains, whist minimizing drawdowns with the daily loss limit.

Good luck to all :clover:

 

[gedward3]

Some of you may remember my last day trading journal, it had it's ups and it had it's downs like most, but i learned two things: 1) I do have a talent at trading but it needs to be refined because 2) The downs were too big and were usually down to lack of discipline and struggling to let go of losing trades and then losing control. To help fix this problem i will be using a lock feature on my account, if i lose 20 points in a day then my account will be locked until the next day. If anyone would like to see my previous performance and downfalls, you can here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/131416-doombergs-journal-ticking-along-nicely.html

Since my last journal i have still been trading, but just not been able to give it 100%, however i am now in a situation where i can take this seriously again. I have now moved on to futures and feel very comfortable with the broker i'm using, at least with futures you know that there is no hidden agendas, so it feels a bit safer than spreadbetting or cfd's where the prices are made by the broker. If anyone is ready to move on to futures i'd highly recommend Infinity Futures, the commissions are excellent, but most importantly i feel that on Josh and Patricks team i get a great service, you'll know what i mean if you ever work with them.

Ok, this journal starts off on a high as i bagged a +50 trade today, typically i will be looking for 10 - 30 points per day, with a max loss of 20 points per day, however today i really liked the look of the trade hence why i held it until i was up 50 points, the Dow Futures nosed 14,000 and i expected a big sell off from that point. I feel that chasing massive numbers of points per day is counter productive in general, so i'll be taking that in to account. Volatility is down compared to 2011, so it's highly unlikely that there will be up days of 100+ points anyway. My aim is slow and consistent gains, whist minimizing drawdowns with the daily loss limit.

Good luck to all :clover:

DM,

Those charts look good. What broker and package is that

Ged

 

[timsk]

. . .Ok, this journal starts off on a high as i bagged a +50 trade today. . .

Hi Doomberg,
When I looked at your chart, I thought I was going mad as the market looked very different to that when I was watching it yesterday (14th)! Your chart is of Weds 13th - not Thurs 14th. Sorry to be pedantic - but it completely threw me for a moment. Anyway, nice trade - well done!

Are you just using your broker charts to trade from or do you use any other charting package? I ask because when I was with Infinity, they only provided charts for the tradeable instruments they offered and I like to look at other stuff - most notably $TICK.

Good luck with your journal!
Tim.

PS. Just noticed the time of your post which explains why you've written 'today' and my confusion!

 

[Doomberg]

Hey guys, the charting package is with Infinity and it's the standard one they offer now... which i believe to be Sierra charts as i'm sure i've seen that name somewhere... they have other options too. And sorry timsk i should of clarified that it wednesday, but i was only 30 mins in to thursday when i did the post so it would of felt weird to of put yesterday lol.

Anyway i traded thursday, i ended up -21 I'll explain what happened and maybe you guys could give me some advice.

It was before the US open so volume was low, i noticed a nice double bottom in the Dow in 5m... it reached this point so i longed with a 5pt stop, i had a Dax chart open and the Dax fell by a massive amount, and because the US had little volume i believe this invalidated the Dow signal and dragged it down further, i moved my stop wider to a 9 pt stop and was stopped. I longed again and was stopped -5, it looked like it had certainly found the bottom and longed again and was stopped -7. At this point my auto daily loss limit kicked in. What a great tool! However it then started to go in my favor but it was too late. But then again, if i had continued to trade it may of continued to go the wrong way.

3 things learned;

1) When US is not open, Euro indicies can drag the Dow.
2) Do not move your stop
3) After a loss don't jump right back in

 

[timsk]

Hi Doomberg,
Besides the double bottom on the chart, what else led you to believe the market was likely to reverse and that a trade was warranted - do you use any other indicators, study order flow on the DoM etc? What I'm driving at is that if you play double tops 'n bottoms based on gut feel - I fear you'll come unstuck more often than you get it right. If your edge is an unquantifiable feel for the market - then you're P&L will reflect that. If it doesn't, my view is that you need a more scientific methodology based on back and forward testing etc. Boring I know, but necessary for most of us!

Personally, I don't trade out of market hours because for me, I'd be trading blind. Price really could go anywhere at anytime. Whilst the same is true during market hours, I at least have a tentative handle on where price will probably go based on confirmation from other indicators. As mentioned in my last post, chief amongst these is $TICK. In a rangebound market you can play double tops 'n bottoms by fading $TICK extremes. In a trending market, you'll probably get your ar$e handed to you on a plate. At least, that's what happened to me when I've tried it in days gone by!

Btw, the above isn't advice; just my opinion.

Tim.

 

[timsk]

Hi again Doomberg,



I was looking at my charts from yesterday and thought you might find this interesting. The chart attached is a 2 min' of the Dow cash - but your YM charts will look pretty similar. Above price is $TICK and below it is TLT (20+ yr Bond ETF). The falling trendline on $TICK indicates that money is starting to be withdrawn from equities. I like to look for confirmation from another source to see where it's going. You could look at currencies such as the dollar or yen, I like to check bonds. Looking at TLT you can see it made a double bottom and then started to reverse. All the while, the Dow edged higher. The sharp fall just after 2.00pm was clearly signposted in the other two charts a good 6 minutes before it happened. IMO, that's about as good as it gets.
Tim.

 

[Doomberg]

Thanks for the input timsk, the 2nd one is interesting so i'll look in to it. And tbh i don't have any set regime for trading, i just trade by eye without indicators... mainly by S&R, even on a very small timescale, and taking advantage of the range a market is moving in, and then breakouts if it breaks out of the range

 

[new_trader]

Hey guys, the charting package is with Infinity and it's the standard one they offer now... which i believe to be Sierra charts as i'm sure i've seen that name somewhere... they have other options too. And sorry timsk i should of clarified that it wednesday, but i was only 30 mins in to thursday when i did the post so it would of felt weird to of put yesterday lol.

Anyway i traded thursday, i ended up -21 I'll explain what happened and maybe you guys could give me some advice.

It was before the US open so volume was low, i noticed a nice double bottom in the Dow in 5m... it reached this point so i longed with a 5pt stop, i had a Dax chart open and the Dax fell by a massive amount, and because the US had little volume i believe this invalidated the Dow signal and dragged it down further, i moved my stop wider to a 9 pt stop and was stopped. I longed again and was stopped -5, it looked like it had certainly found the bottom and longed again and was stopped -7. At this point my auto daily loss limit kicked in. What a great tool! However it then started to go in my favor but it was too late. But then again, if i had continued to trade it may of continued to go the wrong way.

3 things learned;

1) When US is not open, Euro indicies can drag the Dow.
2) Do not move your stop
3) After a loss don't jump right back in

I've got some advice for you. Do whatever you did when you had 13 winners and 0 losers on that Monday...before 9am. Remember that? Just keep doing it. Good luck :clover:

 

[rawrschach]

chart?

Hey guys, the charting package is with Infinity and it's the standard one they offer now... which i believe to be Sierra charts as i'm sure i've seen that name somewhere... they have other options too. And sorry timsk i should of clarified that it wednesday, but i was only 30 mins in to thursday when i did the post so it would of felt weird to of put yesterday lol.

Anyway i traded thursday, i ended up -21 I'll explain what happened and maybe you guys could give me some advice.

It was before the US open so volume was low, i noticed a nice double bottom in the Dow in 5m... it reached this point so i longed with a 5pt stop, i had a Dax chart open and the Dax fell by a massive amount, and because the US had little volume i believe this invalidated the Dow signal and dragged it down further, i moved my stop wider to a 9 pt stop and was stopped. I longed again and was stopped -5, it looked like it had certainly found the bottom and longed again and was stopped -7. At this point my auto daily loss limit kicked in. What a great tool! However it then started to go in my favor but it was too late. But then again, if i had continued to trade it may of continued to go the wrong way.

3 things learned;

1) When US is not open, Euro indicies can drag the Dow.
2) Do not move your stop
3) After a loss don't jump right back in

 

[redtag12]

chart?

Never, ever move your stop.Have you tried hedging your trades look it up might interest you.Your stops are very close ,what type of trading are you doing?
Mike

 

[Doomberg]

Thanks for the input guys, raws sorry i don't have the chart to hand for that trade that was a week ago... redtag, i've never tried hedging and don't really understand it tbh, the way i see it you either win or lose a trade so not sure why you'd do it both ways... but yes my stops may be too close sometimes, i have had 2 more trading days since i last posted and unfortunately they were both -30 and -30

Yesterdays was painful as i expected a huge short opportunity but was stopped out by 2 and then it fell 200 points, chart attached, the line was my stop.. my target was 100... oh well gotta battle on

 

[rawrschach]

If you don't mind my commenting - if you had waited for a red candle on a lower tf around your level before taking the trade you wouldnt have been stopped out.

edit: I don't watch YM but assuming you can see the depth you could maybe wait for order book shenanigans around the level to stop before getting on?

 

[Doomberg]

I have no idea about order reading and tape flow, have been recommended it though... would you know where i should start? Cheers

 

[rawrschach]

nobsdaytrading is the best resource I've ever seen on it. Better than the training I was given at a prop firm.