July '04 Forex

Newtron Bomb

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Playing around with fibs again this am.

I thought that i would apply fib fans to the usual trend lines that i draw (the zero line) and it was interesting to see the peaks and troughs form.

Happy Trading
NB
 

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Nice chart NB. I also enjoyed Frugi's commentaries.

Interestingly, the attached chart shows how 76.4 fib mentioned by Frugi was a significant level. The green lines are weekly pivot levels. Note how strong support/resistance is where fib/pivot levels are almost the same.
 

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Hi everyone,

I have just started applying elliot waves to charts and was wondering if anyone could check this? I am not quite sure on wave 4 as I think it is supposed to be larger than wave 2? And my ABC as I think that wave B is supposed to be lower than wave A?
However there is a clear upward channel from about 1 month back, based on the elliots inside the channel(if they are right) would wave C give us a break through the support also it has bounced right from the 61% fib?
 

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Also here is another chart that I applied (tried) wolfe waves to, please could anyone correct me if my prediction is wrong, which I think it is as a drop to 1.8900 is :-0 unbelievable however knowing wolfe waves it might drop but not so much?

Any comments greatly appreciated,

Ilia
 

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Hi ilia,

In the first example wave 4 would ideally be longer and the ABC correction is invalid because, as you say, the B wave exceeds the high set by A (I refer to the left hand pattern). Unless the wave patterns jump out at you from the chart they are probably not there.

In the second example IMHO the waves are not clearly defined enough to warrant the Wolfe treatment. The lines you have drawn do not represent the price action sufficiently faithfully. Obviously with all 5/3 patterns a line of best fit will have to be drawn, but I think u are using a touch too much artistic licence :)

Others may disagree - I'm certainly no Elliot/Wolfe expert. Sorry if the above sounds dismissive by the way, but I've been betrayed by enough |"false" wave patterns (probably caused by imposing my opinion and lines on a chart) to only give credence to the clearest ones.
 
Illa

I have two comments on your WWs that may prove helpful.

1. Volume is essential to determine whether a move from the #5 pivot is on. Bill Wolve refers to a "cup and saucer" pattern in volume. Unless you trade currency futures on Globex, you will not have volume.

2. The move from the #5 pivot failed.

Remember, that WWs were initially developed for S&P 500 futures. Other traders have tried to apply them to different markets, with varying rates of success.

HTH.

ilia king said:
Also here is another chart that I applied (tried) wolfe waves to, please could anyone correct me if my prediction is wrong, which I think it is as a drop to 1.8900 is :-0 unbelievable however knowing wolfe waves it might drop but not so much?

Any comments greatly appreciated,

Ilia
 
morning all, not much time to be online recently. been bloody busy here in t'office.


here is a longer term chart. either the US payroll data today, or the action early next week should see a return to greater volatility as the triangle breaks out.


is that a bear flag i see forming?

hmmm

FC :)
 

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Hi Everyone,

Thanks Goober and Frugi for pointing out the corrections as I have found them rather helpful in my need to improve on trading. I will try and post a correct ww or ew if I get the chance to find one.

Cheers

Ilia
 
Spotted potential a&e on cable ...


Too late....
 
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That was nasty if you were on the wrong side of the FOMC announcement.

Its the first time I've seen the Globex futures market gap so violently leaving many orders on the table.

JonnyT
 
JonnyT said:
That was nasty if you were on the wrong side of the FOMC announcement.

Its the first time I've seen the Globex futures market gap so violently leaving many orders on the table.

JonnyT


yep - i was short and had a stop limit to cover it and reverse. limit of five ticks on the stop. no fill. covered my short -120.
 
what limits do you use on your stops on the futures JT? kinda puts me off ever going down the automated trading model route if you can't be sure of a fill.
 
Hi denham,

Today for me was the first time I haven't recieved a fill on the EUR/USD future. The market simply gapped, it doesn't normally do that.

However it cost me nothing other than a missed opportunity.

JonnyT
 
denham said:
what limits do you use on your stops on the futures JT? kinda puts me off ever going down the automated trading model route if you can't be sure of a fill.
Denham - I was sitting on €$ waiting to hit the buy and I couldn't get a fill manually. So automated or not - today was unusual.
 
Just shorted EUR at 1.2281 on the basis that its trading at the weekly R2 level. Tight SL of 20 pips. Purely speculative. :confused:
 
JT -What fill were you waiting for? A breakout of 7-10am?

I'd be interested to hear of anyone trading with FXCM who may have had stop entry orders to trade the breakout. FXCM say they guarantee all stop/ limit orders.

I'm looking at opening an account with fxcm and obviously if they gurantee to fill stops/ limits, trading situations like todays would be much easier to control and would be a big plus point in their favour.

Also, denham, who are you trading with out of interest.

I decided to stay out today personally, but with guaranteed stops (as per FXCM) I could be tempted back in to "big news" days.
 
This maybe be wrong...

The FX Trading Station provides quick order entry and instantaneous execution. There are multiple ways to initiate market orders, including hitting an express ?Buy? button, or clicking the BUY/SELL price of a specific currency pair. Even under the most chaotic market conditions, orders are processed and filled within seconds. All market orders are complete fills and market orders are always executed at the quoted price. Once an order is filled, the order is displayed in the open positions window immediately. This window displays the price of the fill, and the real time profit/loss on the position in both pip and dollar terms. In addition, stops and limits can be placed directly on the position.

A stop or a limit would have probably failed with FXCM today as well if it was a little away from the market. The above suggests that you may not receive a fill or at best a complete fill.

You also need to ask how many pips away from the market do stop orders have to be?

This may make the strategy you wish to trade unusable.

JonnyT
 
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I trade thro Mantrad on their own branded Patsystem. The Merc accept stop limit orders so my order was in and held at the exchange - the problem was one of the market gapping and lack of liquidity not a problem with the execution platform/broker. I use two tick stop limits for entry and five tick stop limits for exit - in the past it has never let me down but today it was very expensive. I used to trade the bund market and for all its other faults, liquidity was certainly not one of them.
 
A very interesting coversation with FXCM over their on line chat facility. Transcript below:-

FXCM£: Welcome to FXCM's Live Chat feature. You are now chatting with an FXCM representative. How can I help you?
you: Hi, I would like to ask a question about stop/ limit orders
FXCM£: Sure
FXCM£: What is your question?
you: I read somewhere that you guarantee that these types of orders will be filled at the desired price?
FXCM£: Yes
you: OK, is that even in fast markets like we have just seen on eur/usd around 1.30pm uk time
FXCM£: This is correct
FXCM£: Regardless of market conditions, even over the weekend,
FXCM£: we guarenteee stops and limits
you: How can you guarantee this. I know of someone who trades globex futures and they gapped hugely beyond their stop order and left them unfilled?
you: eur/usd that is
FXCM£: Well, FX is extremely liquid to begin with
FXCM£: but for us, we are the largest player in the market
FXCM£: I believe at last count, we had 45 000 accounts
FXCM£: This give us tremendous internal liquidity
FXCM£: which is what enables us to do something like this
you: OK so just as an example, if I had placed a stop entry order to buy eur /usd at say 1.2190 shortly before 1.30 uk time, I would definately have been filled at 1.2190, even though the market flew through this level (possibly without even trading at 1.2190)
FXCM£: Yes
FXCM£: Guarenteed
you: fantastic. Iv'e had my application forms completed a while now. I think I'll send them in!
you: Thanks for now

The route to zero slippage heaven?? Seems so.
 
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