July '04 Forex

Newtron Bomb

Experienced member
1,602 87
Playing around with fibs again this am.

I thought that i would apply fib fans to the usual trend lines that i draw (the zero line) and it was interesting to see the peaks and troughs form.

Happy Trading
NB
 

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Goober

Well-known member
304 3
Nice chart NB. I also enjoyed Frugi's commentaries.

Interestingly, the attached chart shows how 76.4 fib mentioned by Frugi was a significant level. The green lines are weekly pivot levels. Note how strong support/resistance is where fib/pivot levels are almost the same.
 

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ilia king

Well-known member
327 0
Hi everyone,

I have just started applying elliot waves to charts and was wondering if anyone could check this? I am not quite sure on wave 4 as I think it is supposed to be larger than wave 2? And my ABC as I think that wave B is supposed to be lower than wave A?
However there is a clear upward channel from about 1 month back, based on the elliots inside the channel(if they are right) would wave C give us a break through the support also it has bounced right from the 61% fib?
 

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ilia king

Well-known member
327 0
Also here is another chart that I applied (tried) wolfe waves to, please could anyone correct me if my prediction is wrong, which I think it is as a drop to 1.8900 is :-0 unbelievable however knowing wolfe waves it might drop but not so much?

Any comments greatly appreciated,

Ilia
 

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frugi

1
1,827 126
Hi ilia,

In the first example wave 4 would ideally be longer and the ABC correction is invalid because, as you say, the B wave exceeds the high set by A (I refer to the left hand pattern). Unless the wave patterns jump out at you from the chart they are probably not there.

In the second example IMHO the waves are not clearly defined enough to warrant the Wolfe treatment. The lines you have drawn do not represent the price action sufficiently faithfully. Obviously with all 5/3 patterns a line of best fit will have to be drawn, but I think u are using a touch too much artistic licence :)

Others may disagree - I'm certainly no Elliot/Wolfe expert. Sorry if the above sounds dismissive by the way, but I've been betrayed by enough |"false" wave patterns (probably caused by imposing my opinion and lines on a chart) to only give credence to the clearest ones.
 

Goober

Well-known member
304 3
Illa

I have two comments on your WWs that may prove helpful.

1. Volume is essential to determine whether a move from the #5 pivot is on. Bill Wolve refers to a "cup and saucer" pattern in volume. Unless you trade currency futures on Globex, you will not have volume.

2. The move from the #5 pivot failed.

Remember, that WWs were initially developed for S&P 500 futures. Other traders have tried to apply them to different markets, with varying rates of success.

HTH.

ilia king said:
Also here is another chart that I applied (tried) wolfe waves to, please could anyone correct me if my prediction is wrong, which I think it is as a drop to 1.8900 is :-0 unbelievable however knowing wolfe waves it might drop but not so much?

Any comments greatly appreciated,

Ilia
 

FetteredChinos

Veteren member
3,897 40
morning all, not much time to be online recently. been bloody busy here in t'office.


here is a longer term chart. either the US payroll data today, or the action early next week should see a return to greater volatility as the triangle breaks out.


is that a bear flag i see forming?

hmmm

FC :)
 

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ilia king

Well-known member
327 0
Hi Everyone,

Thanks Goober and Frugi for pointing out the corrections as I have found them rather helpful in my need to improve on trading. I will try and post a correct ww or ew if I get the chance to find one.

Cheers

Ilia
 

JonnyT

Senior member
2,560 22
That was nasty if you were on the wrong side of the FOMC announcement.

Its the first time I've seen the Globex futures market gap so violently leaving many orders on the table.

JonnyT
 

denham

Junior member
14 0
JonnyT said:
That was nasty if you were on the wrong side of the FOMC announcement.

Its the first time I've seen the Globex futures market gap so violently leaving many orders on the table.

JonnyT


yep - i was short and had a stop limit to cover it and reverse. limit of five ticks on the stop. no fill. covered my short -120.
 

denham

Junior member
14 0
what limits do you use on your stops on the futures JT? kinda puts me off ever going down the automated trading model route if you can't be sure of a fill.
 

JonnyT

Senior member
2,560 22
Hi denham,

Today for me was the first time I haven't recieved a fill on the EUR/USD future. The market simply gapped, it doesn't normally do that.

However it cost me nothing other than a missed opportunity.

JonnyT
 

TheBramble

Legendary member
8,395 1,171
denham said:
what limits do you use on your stops on the futures JT? kinda puts me off ever going down the automated trading model route if you can't be sure of a fill.
Denham - I was sitting on €$ waiting to hit the buy and I couldn't get a fill manually. So automated or not - today was unusual.
 

Goober

Well-known member
304 3
Just shorted EUR at 1.2281 on the basis that its trading at the weekly R2 level. Tight SL of 20 pips. Purely speculative. :confused:
 
 
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