The Dow this week 16/04 - 20/04

[ChartMan]

The Dow this week 15/04 - 19/04

Sorry it's late, was realy ill last night...Anyway, 170 didnt hold and down we went, finding a bottom at 10,074 ish, closing the day at 10,093.From the traingle breakout to the downside, there is a target of 10K, and another "leg" down would get us there....Phase and CCI are showing PD, giving room for upside but we are still under the regression line at 161, with the 100MA at 168.Still room here then for more down as we have not been under the regression line for very long.
DSMODI has asked about fib points at 10,093 but I can't access my eod data at work so I'll have to look at that tonight....It must be a long way back and the further back, the less importance it has for short term trading. I am currently using 400/074 and 225/074......
100MA : 10,168. Support: 10,074,10k.... Resistance: 10,100,150,180,200.....

 

[dsmodi]

fib

Hi Chartman,

Thanks for the post......
If you go to this link in the t2w boards

http://www.trade2win.co.uk/boards/showthread.php?s=&threadid=3185

and refer to the post by ladybird, and your reply following that. I just wondered if you thought whether there was any correlation between that and the fact that the DOW closed exactly on that fib level. Just a thought I had......

Many thanks in advance....

 

[ChartMan]

The observation is very valid. Skim , who is our resident Fib expert, says that IF you get two correlating values ( as per Ladybird) then that value is "stronger". Clearly 10093 proved to be a substantial barrier to break through and provided a huge spring board today - whatever the reason- it happened.I believe it is a very useful tool to have- if only to verify other theories. They all add up .....to give you a greater confidence factor when approaching possible targets for support and resistance.

 

[ChartMan]

Wish I could get the hang of calling the DOW. Last night looked like a dead cert for down . Oh Well. Nice rise today then. That should have frightened the Bears off, and serves as a warning yet again why it is not a good idea to hold overnight. You would have been forgiven if you had thought SHORT hold. You wouldn't have forgiven yourself if you did...up 207 on the day- not the bigest, but impressive none the less. Not much of any down during the day either,showing strength,30 points being about the bigest drop.Phase well into positive territory now,well above regression at 174 and the 100 MA at 226. Stong finish at the close,just 6 points off HOD. The big drop in CCI didn't move the price either, at -180 , I would expect a tank but -nothing.More of the same tomorrow then ,but don't expect the 100pt rise on open, rather some pullback to support.....almost a case of too much too quick, except it was on the open, and not during the day.
100MA 10,226. Support: 10,264,232,150. Resistance:10,332, 364,390/400.

 

[ChartMan]

Another strange day. I guessed a pullback was in order, but not that much. It looked at one point that 250 would hold, but in the end it was found at 200. This was also an inportant fib level to hold (38%). We have now got another diamond formation and it will be interesting to see if the "continuation" theory is correct. My feeling is they are bull patterns. Time will tell...
100MA: 10,239. Support: 10,200,164,150,100. Resistance: 10,250,288,300,320.

 

[ChartMan]

Another mixed bag, not helped by the accident in Italy...Initial reaction to that was "terrorism", - unfounded. By and large, though it ended up not so bad. The initial drop took us to test support at 150 and it started to look good....until 5pm. Still, the recovery was just as swift and we continued with the uptrend rise off support to close at 205.
100MA: 10,206. Support:10,168,150,100. Resistance:10,216,232,250,288,300,320

 

[ChartMan]

Another reasonable day, closing up 50 or so. More importantly, we are very close to descision time of the diamond. Is it going to break to the upside, or will it turn out to be a trend continuation and break to the downside?I still favour the upside break...Another stron Friday close, just a few points off HOD, different to other Fridays, in that HOD occured very early in the day. Nothe the whole of the day was spent above the 100MA and the regression line, and the major downtrend resistance line provided resistance throughout the day.The TA formation is now very complex, there being triangles within triangles and multiple support/res. lines. Today has formed yet another triangle on its own.The longer term CCI plot has a triangle formation that has already broken out. Does this mean that the price will follow?Phase is broadly in line with the price action so no clues there....Given there are no indications of negative divergence or otherwise, the balance has to be in favour of the breakout....On the contrary, CCI can be seen to have formed a bull wedge today and RSI has formed a bull flag that just about broke out at the close.
100MA:10,226. Support:10,220,200,150. Resistance:10,264,300,332,364.400...

 

[ChartMan]

As a footnote, it turns out that the fib. level of 093 has been pivotal, there having been a clear turnaround in the trend at this point.Well spotted Dsmodi.

 

[dsmodi]

fib

I think I wont be fibbing (pun intended!) if I say that the credit should really go to ladybird and yourself (chartman)....

 

[dsmodi]

:-}