The DOW this week 01/04 05/04

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Not a very impressive start to the week:( Still , after the big drop, there was a steady climb to finish 40 points down, and no "surprises". Fib. retraces from 500 to 268 find support at 23% and 38% , suggesting 268 may be a valid bottom. A strange day on very thin volume so no real idea of direction or intention. A bull flag at the close may give rise to some upside tomorrow, but I've come to not trust TA formations during the last half hour of trading...
100MA 10,372. Support : 10,352,320,300,266. Resistance: 10,374, 400,432,450,500.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
So the EOD Ta didn't work. No big rise.A drop at the open to LOD at 266 then a steady rise t close at 314, having spent most of the day drifting around the 100MA. Most unspectacular to say the least.We now have a double bottom at 266 and last night's closing action clearly showd a RS switch, with phase advancing ahead of the price. To me, that suggests an up day today ( Wednesday)......
100MA 10,333. Support: 10,308,300,284,266. Resistance: 10,324,375,400,444.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Still failed on TA in this downtrend. For a minute after open, it looked like it might just be going to perform....Then the truth hit. Down, down, down to 220 and that looked a bottom..then down down down to 140 and that looks a bottom.....The only thing going for it is the 3 slope changes, which may result in a bottom call here. We'll see.Nothing else seems to have worked on the TA front. Maybe we have to wait for the RSI and CCI trends to make higher highs on the 10 min chart before we get confirmation.
100MA: 10,274. Support: 10,168,150,140....Resistance: 10,200,232,256,296,332.
 

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Dino

Junior member
15 0
Chartman, just to say I find your charts and analysis extremely useful.

Although I have read a lot of TA stuff, I don't recall seeing anything about the significance of slope changes. Can you provide any pointer on this.

Dino.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
This may just be something peculiar to the DOW. It is a result of observations made over time, and is reasonably reliable.- Search earlier posts for other examples and follow throughs....Thx for your comments:- appreciated.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Well, I suppose it was a sort of up day. Nothing to shout about though.Having regard to previous comments about TA not performing in downtrends, we may just be out of the downtrend so perhaps one can start relying on TA performing again....Yesterday's short excursion to the long side may well be signs of things to come. A Bull flag developed for most of the day, breaking out at 210 just before the close, that would take us up into the low 300's.Good divergence off the double bottom at 184 gave rise to a 2 slope change by the close, with a strong finish. Is this the kick start of more upside? The close at 235 is right on downtrend resistance from 500 and 23% fib from 500.......A break and hold of 350 should confirm and phase has good pos. divergence since the 1st....
100MA: 10,242. Support:10,220,184,164, 150. Resistance: 10,250,296,364.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Looks like the downtrend has turned around.TA is performing again . Although we closed just 36 points up , TA supports more up side. From the 3 slope change in the down trend, we now have a clear 2 slope change uptrend and an RS switch.Phase has remained positive all day and Bull triangles forming in both price and TA. Crunch resistance at 332 and 364 with a target rise up to 450 area,the shoulders of the 500 top from the 28th.
Today saw a smart rise to 331 which was to be HOD, followed by a drop to 218 which could have signalled all over....but a second wind took it back up to just over 300 where a Bear triangle developed.This produced a false break to the upside before finally performing and pushing down through the 100MA to close at 271.Yet again the 100MA messed things up and clouded the real direction....
100MA: 10,265. Support: 10,267,250,232,218,184. Resistance: 10,285,300,332,364,400,432.
 

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