Cheers Leo, you are dead right with your observation.
I have been fighting the trend and blinding myself to the best trades which were just to buy the dips.
From time-to-time I do get a certain 'trading bias' stuck in my head (going short in this case) and it needs a good knock to loosen it. My main reason for repeatedly going short was the divergence of the DAX and the AUD/USD which still exists in my opinion.
Got to spend the weekend resetting myself!!
I have been fighting the trend and blinding myself to the best trades which were just to buy the dips.
From time-to-time I do get a certain 'trading bias' stuck in my head (going short in this case) and it needs a good knock to loosen it. My main reason for repeatedly going short was the divergence of the DAX and the AUD/USD which still exists in my opinion.
Got to spend the weekend resetting myself!!
hi, just re-reading your initial post, and I must say I agree with the above, and is the way i've been trading over the last year, quite successfully. However, so far this year it's been difficult, but the market has been very choppy so far for this type of trading.
I'm currently sitting in the following positions:
Opened: 11Jan Long SN.L Open: 686 Stop: 653 Target: 800 P/L: +6.2%
Opened: 12Jan Long WTAN.L Open: 522 Stop: 503 Target: 620 P/L: -1.2%
Opened: 03Feb Long ITV.L Open: 80 Stop: 76 Target: 95 P/L: +8.0%
Opened: 04Feb Long VOD.L Open: 178 Stop: 173 Target: 200 P/L: +0.8%
isatrader
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Hi leonarda, thanks for the positive feedback on my journal - it is appreciated. And thanks for posting your positions. It's always good to see other peoples trades as they make me look at stocks that I might not have noticed. I have had ITV.L on my watchlist for a month or so, but missed the entry so am still watching as it ticks up without me. SN.L looks interesting though on the weekly chart. A weekly closing all time high and recent break above resistance looks promising. I look for the weekly relative strength to be over 70 to confirm a breakout. It was 69.91 this week, so is very close. So I'll be watching this one with interest next week for a possible longer term breakout play if it meets my criteria.
isatrader
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Account Update
Another reasonable week with the account moving up 1.23%. BG Group consolidated a bit and then continued to move higher the last few days and is now up 7.26%. I opened two positions in Talvivaara Mining this week and that is currently just above breakeven. They have annual results announced next Thursday so I might take half my position off before they announce as my combined risk on the two positions is a bit high at 0.63% of my account.
Relative performance to the indexes was in-line this week, but the S&P 500 is still way ahead year to date at +5.69%, whereas, I'm only just back to +0.27% year to date after a tough January.
I'm looking to add a new stock position to the account next week which I'll decide over the weekend and will trade in the my live group thread One Trade a Week as well.
Have a good week everyone.
Performance
My SB Account
Weekly: 1.23%
YTD: +0.27%
S&P 500
Weekly: 1.39%
YTD: +5.69%
FTSE 100
Weekly: 1.09%
YTD: 2.76%
Another reasonable week with the account moving up 1.23%. BG Group consolidated a bit and then continued to move higher the last few days and is now up 7.26%. I opened two positions in Talvivaara Mining this week and that is currently just above breakeven. They have annual results announced next Thursday so I might take half my position off before they announce as my combined risk on the two positions is a bit high at 0.63% of my account.
Relative performance to the indexes was in-line this week, but the S&P 500 is still way ahead year to date at +5.69%, whereas, I'm only just back to +0.27% year to date after a tough January.
I'm looking to add a new stock position to the account next week which I'll decide over the weekend and will trade in the my live group thread One Trade a Week as well.
Have a good week everyone.
Performance
My SB Account
Weekly: 1.23%
YTD: +0.27%
S&P 500
Weekly: 1.39%
YTD: +5.69%
FTSE 100
Weekly: 1.09%
YTD: 2.76%
Attachments
I'm a medium term swing/position trader, since I have a day job, so only take 4-5 trades a month when I get the signals from a shortlist from my scanning software. I pick the stocks by discretion looking at the charts and the fundamentals/company reports.
I can keep you posted with my entries/exits if you're interested? I don't want to crowd your thread.
isatrader
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The thread has already morphed a bit from my original journal, but it's more interesting for it I think. So I'm happy for you to post your trades in here as well, as like I said, there might be some that peek my interest that I hadn't noticed from my own research. So all I'd ask is that if you are posting trades to try and do it in a similar format to the what I have been doing in the thread. So entry price, stop loss and a target, risk reward and if possible a chart and your reason for buying it. Then I can look into ones that look interesting to me.
I have found that posting my trades in my journal has really helped me with my risk management, as it's easy to break the rules when you are doing it on your own, but the extra scrutiny helps keep me on track, and minimise my risk.
isatrader,
having thought, I think what might be best so as to not confuse your thread is to create my own journal, as I think you've made a good point about helping me not break my rules and be more disciplined. The format will be similar, so you can peek/subscribe at/to my thread for interested research as well as comparison.
I think my style of trading is very similar to yours in terms of method of stock picks and timeframe, however I use more leverage than you I think. Mainly because I am only trading a £1000 account, so i'm happy with the 20% max drawdown my methods experience with that account size. As I progress I will reduce leverage...!
Cheers!
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leopardtrader-com
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Ihave gone thru your trades and methods. Quite good but somewhat mechanical. Some stock you have picked in anticipation of news and al that.
My 2 cents here.
* All trades including stock MUSt be traded in the direction of the major market (S&P/FTSE). You dont wanna stay in the wrong side of the market for any reason.
* Use of stop loss made you lose many good trades you entered. Stop loss is a killer. It is only useful for a crash. That occurs rarely. I do not see SNP 500 crashing to the upside though LOL
* U tend to base trades on indicators such as overbought/underbought. Those are not important.
* Your target strategy is very good
If you follow market trend and larger stop losses with your target plans, you will hpefully notice a far better performance going forward.
Good luck
My 2 cents here.
* All trades including stock MUSt be traded in the direction of the major market (S&P/FTSE). You dont wanna stay in the wrong side of the market for any reason.
* Use of stop loss made you lose many good trades you entered. Stop loss is a killer. It is only useful for a crash. That occurs rarely. I do not see SNP 500 crashing to the upside though LOL
* U tend to base trades on indicators such as overbought/underbought. Those are not important.
* Your target strategy is very good
If you follow market trend and larger stop losses with your target plans, you will hpefully notice a far better performance going forward.
Good luck
pingvin123
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Isatrader, can you please explain to me, is trading those stocks that you are trading considered SPOT trading? What broker do you use if I can ask? I am just curious...
I certainly agree with only going with the major market direction, ie. don't try and fight the trend, but that's just my personal strategy. In other words don't try and pick "tops"/"bottoms".
Stops are another interesting area, I use an automated "disaster" stop which is typically 10-15% away, but I always exit manually based on a variant on the trailing parabolic SAR based system I developed.
isatrader
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Thanks leonarda, it will be interesting to follow another journal with a similar method and hopefully will help me develop my trading style further. With regards to leverage it sounds like you do use a lot more than me, but I understand why you would with a small account if your aim is solely to grow the account. That is not my sole purpose with my account, as I believe that learning to become a good consistent trader is the most important thing to learn first, money will come later once I perfect my methods. So I'm trying to approach in as professional a way as I can and to learn using the money management I would if I had a much bigger pot to play with.
leopardtrader-com
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Picking tops/ bottoms are what separates savvy traders from the rest. The practice is the only way to be exceedingly profitable. Do not follow that crap advise about top/bottom as bad. They are not. But they must be done in the context of the larger market trend. Larger market trend means trend of the SNP500/FTSE/DAX(all same). They move in ranges (SWINGS). If you do more work they are easy to follow. You can then trade any stock in that context.
Mechanical (automatic ) based on any indicator is useless...where u ar stopped couldend up being where you are supposed to buy.
I am not a trend follower. When I stopped following trend I started making money consistently. By the time the trend is known to all, it could be at the top or bottom. Reason why majority lose money buy/sell top/bottom.
Keep an eye on the indices and know snp500 very well. You will notice when the trend starts and when it is likely to turn. You can safely trade off any security using SNP500 as the larget indicator.
For example, it is rare for BARC to rally when FTSE is being sold off. But if FTSE is being consistently sold and BARC is rallying then, figure out a good level on BARC on go short. That is a high grade setup. Pretty high chance of following the overall market. I dont buy or short an stock based on its own information. I must know where the market is going and then I pick TOP/BOTTOMS from there. They have been wonderful.
Good luck
isatrader
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I believe it's called swing trading, and I use Finspreads for my spread betting, as they let you trade smaller sizes and hence means I can use much stricter money management.
pingvin123
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Ammm, no, no, SPOT trading - as a PROMPT trading. In my country you do not pay any taxes to tax office for SPOT trading, but you do for trading stocks...
Is this the broker: http://www.finspreads.com I guess they use their own platform, not MT4?
not sure I totally agree with this, I don't think anyone can predict when a market is going to turn in the short/medium term. It's easier to work with the trend until it changes than to repeatedly try and go the other direction. But everyone to their own...
I do agree though that knowing when a bull market is overdone and due for a move to the bear side is essential, and I follow the adv/dec graphs, McCllelan Osc/Summation indexes and the like with that in mind...
isatrader
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I don't often pick a stock based on any news. I think you've got this impression from my recent Talvivaara Mining trade. However, I'm actually a big believer that if a stock has had a strong run up before the news that it's got a high probability of selling off on good results. My entry reason for Talvivaara Mining included that I believed it would run up before the results, but that was based on the chart patterns and indicator set ups that I could see. Plus the knowledge as a long term Nickel trader that this years strong performance for nickel would no doubt translate into higher profit margins for the company if it's been well run. If the results say otherwise then I will close out immediately.
With regards to stop losses, I have very strict monthly drawdown limits. On my long term account I do not use stops at all as getting stopped out on small swings would prove expensive in fees. However, on a leveraged account such as spread betting I believe they are essential and am willing to take small loses if it keeps my drawdown under control. I think it's more an issue of your timescale as to where you position them. For example on an intraday trade they would need to be exceptionally tight, whereas on a trade of a week or more I prefer to place them just below the -1ATR level as this is only normally hit on a reversal of trend. So is more of a disaster stop.
Indicators are a personal preference and do help me especially when I'm scanning the whole market stock by stock as I don't look at levels in the indicators but at divergences between indicator and price action. For example, my favourite is Force Index (Simply subtract the prior close from the current close and multiply by volume). A divergence in this and price action can be very telling as can show that there's no volume behind a move in a much visual manner than volume alone. But in general I use them as another tool for confirmation.
Thanks for the comments, they are appreciated.
isatrader
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Yep that is my broker. I think SPOT trading must be what spread betting is called in your country as I've not heard that term before. It is tax free in the UK, but I don't know if that's the case where you are. The platform is their own thing and fairly clear and simple, but I just use an end of day software program to make my decisions and theirs for intraday charts.
isatrader
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I'd recommend that you join my short term trading group in my other thread as there's money to be made in all conditions, there's no one method that will suit all people and I think anyone can benefit by participating in live trades and watching how traders manage their trades at the same time. Here's the link:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/swing-position-trading/116688-one-trade-week.html#post1404498
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/swing-position-trading/116688-one-trade-week.html#post1404498
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leopardtrader-com
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Good!
But volume I dont use. Volume doesnt tell anything. For every sll there is a buyer and conversely. So volume shows volume of exchange not direction or conviction as some people tend to believe. Indeed certain high volume after some days of rally could be smartmoney distributing..and so certain large volume after selloffs means accumulation by them. It is quite tricky.
It is possible to know when market turns or is turning. That is a trader for you. Market trends about 15% and ranges for about 80%. How can one make money if you cannot find inflexion points? Or trade ranges..which is bsically trading off turning points. A market can trade in ranges for months! It is rather impossible to tell if a move is a trend b/cos if it is not the trader ends up buying top of a range
SNP500 is widely followed and inflexion points ar easily known...trade other stocks in that contxt by selling tops and buying bottoms. Except for small caps..capitalised stocks follow the market