Index King In Da' House !

[mombasa]

Think the next few days are going to be interesting - CM and China think a bo - in which case IK's trade is invalid this time. Or, it could be a trebble top, in which case IK comes good.

Lets see - I'm doing both intraday as per CM and IK.

BTW, Hugo, don't take this as criticism - keep up the good work.

 

[mug2k]

Mombasa, how do i also follow CM's intraday trading! Im definately sticking with IK though , was just intersted in what CM has to say!

IK im currently trading the dow/cac trade which is losing quite badly at the moment, will u let us know when 2 pullout as im a lil worried as my bank is so small right now. Not to worry though you still have my complete confidence!

You must be able to take the losses to fully enjoy the wins!

 

[indexking]

Hello Mug2k

Please don't fret the trades are looking fine. The difference to start Dow/Cac was 6276 or more. It appears you jumped in a little less than this ?
The success of these trades at the moment depends on a big European rally or a Dow tumble. It looks like an early uptick on the Dow (to have the Europeans up by their close) with late day selling to end down by say 50 points ? That would satisfy the trades. This is only a likely scenario and may not be today. The trades have a few days left each anyway, so hang in there.

Regards
Hugo
Regards
Hugo

 

[biggsy]

we maybe hurting at the moment guys, but my mate who has just done the DOW leg of the trade (and is still in it!!) is currently on the phone to the Samaritans!

 

[indexking]

Hello Biggsy

I told you it was an unnecessary risk doing the one index only. The system is designed for pair trading, not singly. I hope this trade illustrates the point I keep trying to make.

Regards
Hugo

 

[biggsy]

yep exactly!...ive just sent an ambulance round to his house! Are your trades based on statistics or technical indicators/patterns?

 

[Bigbusiness]

High Hugo,

Is there any chance of having dates for the statistics page? I realise that this might make it easier to work out how your system works but I am only interested in seeing when the losses were made. This is because I am considering doing two pairs, each with a different spread bet company to avoid confusion. Having the dates of the losers would enable me to work out if the losses come at the same time or if a loss on one pair is offset by a gain on another.

Thanks for all the work you do and for sharing so much.

 

[indexking]

Hello

I cannot provide dates of the trades because I don't use them in the model. Dates are irrevallent anyway. I think people are getting too nervous too soon on these latest trades. When a trade lasts one or two days and makes a good profit, that is good, but its not common. A lot of the time trade last 4,5,6 and officially up to 20 days. Once the min difference to satisfy a trade becomes a loss to the original start value of the trade then its worth quitting.
Currently the initial calcs on today are showing a Dow drop to just below 9500. I'll provide a more accurate figure later in my updates.Stay with it.
I'm doing the Ftse/Dow bets myself.

 

[darrren]

"Once the min difference to satisfy a trade becomes a loss to the original start value of the trade then its worth quitting"

Can you give some actual figures to explain this, say with regard to the existing Dow/Ftse trade. I'm not sure what you mean.

 

[shogun]

playing ftse/dow trade ,only put one third of trade on at 5306 have now added one third more at 5381 will add last third at 5450 if we get there ,

 

[indexking]

Wow Shogun you're going for it a bit aren't you !! Be careful though.

As regards my earlier post saying "Once the min difference to satisfy a trade becomes a loss to the original start value of the trade then its worth quitting"
If the trade start is 5000 or more (diff to decrease) for instance, then each day as the indexes move the difference targets will change. To satisfy this bet at the end of each day it runs, the system will spit out a minimum Dow value based on the corresponding European index close for that day . If the difference between the minimum Dow value and the European value was to be say 5050 then clearly its unlikely to produce a profit on this particular trade. This is the safety filter in place.
Believe it or not with the current European close values today the system is looking at 9490-9500 level to satisfy these trades (today only). This will give each pair at least 100 points profit. OK it looks unlikely but that is the value today and thats that. The value tomorrow may well be more if the Europeans rally.
I hope you can see that you must always do both of the index pair and never one because the Dow doesn't always do the legwork !

Regards
Hugo

 

[darrren]

Hugo

Thanks for the explanation.

Does your system decide on the max loss before deciding to bale out, or is that just a personal decision you make?

Also, you referred, in answering a previous question , to your MODEL not having any dates attached to it - does this mean the statistics on your website are backtested figures, or were they the actual results you achieved with your system, over the last year?

 

[indexking]

Hello Darren

They were all the trades done within the time scale at the top of the table.
Any personal decisions are taken AFTER the Dow closes. I try not to let personal judgement get in the way and will only post a recommendation to quit a trade if it will end against the initial start value. Today is a good example as most people would think that when the Dow was pushing 9800 this afternoon that it was a losing trade. Not so ! The trades haven't finished. Only when they officially end (system finish) do I declare victory or defeat !
A lot of people clawed back the losses today when the Dow fell this afternoon. The system said continue the night before, target values were still good and the trades were still young. That sort of info convinces me to stare at adversity and laugh !

Regards
Hugo

 

[darrren]

I admire your confidence and your results certainly back that up.

You must have been laughing hysterically when the Dow neared 9800.

lol

 

[indexking]

Actually no i missed it as I was booking in some toiletries this afternoon.

Regards
Hugo

 

[darrren]

With the results you show in your stats, I, like some others, wonder whether you actually have the easy life, living off the points, or really do work in 'Cleansing'.

I suppose you'll keep us guessing.

 

[indexking]

Oh yes. I clean therefore I am !

I hope Biggsy's friend got his cash back this afternoon.

Regards
Hugo

 

[bigboy]

Morning.
I have followed with interest and entered my first trade on the ftse/ dow.
So; long FTSE @ 4303 short dow @9648.
How will I know when to exit the trade? :?:


ok...i am watching 9496!

 

[mombasa]

Hi IK,

Now I'm confused. I placed my sell dow / buyftse on monday morning. Dow was 9591, Ftse was 4290 - diff of 5301.

Today the difference is 5395. According to your comments above, should I have quit this trade or stick to it?

If I should have bailed out, at what point would that have been?
Rgds

 

[biggsy]

Hi Mombasa, you should still be in the trade. I have the trade at 5306, IK also has the FTSE trade. These trades take time and can change very quickly.
Biggsy