FTSE 100 January


Junior member
40 0
Happy New Year all and thanks for your continued efforts bonsai.

Clearly my misguided attempt at calling a FTSE top failed. Thankfully my trading pot has withstood the failure, thanks mainly to dollar weakness.

My New Year resolution - predictions (as someone has said) are for weathermen !

Happy trading all.


Experienced member
1,802 2
Happy New year to you all. Trust everyone had a great one.

10 green bottles sitting on a wall............


Legendary member
10,705 1,809
mornin' all and a prosperous new year - may all your longs scale
the heights and may all your shorts plumb the depths.

And, if you're not already I hope 2004 sees you become a
detestable market demon. :D :D

"...to learn about the market ask the market - only then can you
become a detestable market demon"
The Fountain of Gold


Veteren member
4,106 11
all looks very corrective so far ?

a/d struggling to pick itself up off the floor


Established member
872 12
good morning Bonsai, thought I would drop by with a piece of interesting statistics, which is for the US:

The market action during the first five trading days of January often serves as an excellent indicator for the year as a whole. This year is election year in the US. Since 1950 there has been 13 election years. There have only been 2 cases in those 13 election years when the 5-day indicator did not work. Otherwise gains in the first 5 days meant a positive year and a loss in the first five days (as measured from the open of the first day to the close of the fifth day) meant a negative year. The only time this did not work was in 1956 and in 1988.

If you look at ALL the years between 1950 and 2003 (and not just the election years) the indicator losses some of its accuracy, but it is still better than a clip-of-the-coin. Since 1950 there has been 33 years with gains in the first 5 days, and in 28 of those years the market ended with gains for the year. In the 5 years the indicator did not work, there was a war in 4 of them, which affected the market.

Happy New Year


Veteren member
4,106 11
Hi Tom

the rule of thumb is that if the NFC win, the market will rise
for the year.
As Hooya said , it didnt work last year but statistically has been a very good indicator.
(Can't really think of a more spurious correlation)

From memory, its an 8 out of 10 statistic.

There must be a web link somewhere but its a favourite of CNBC.
(Bit like Greenspan's briefcase)


Experienced member
1,802 2
Range decreasing


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Experienced member
1,802 2
small break out north..if it doesnt gather pace I guess
we are trading ultimately sideways and not in the triangle shape


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Veteren member
4,106 11
even if we do break out, I am not sure we will go very far.
maybe to 30 ? before another stop and think.
triangles are meant to have projections built in, arent they ?

FTSE Beater

Experienced member
1,518 5
Hi Bonsai

The price is supposed to move the distance of the "triangle mouth" once it breaks. I know your looking at a smaller triangle, but I think the target takes the price to about 4540 :)

<img src="http://www.ftsebeater.btinternet.co.uk/UKX050104.png" width="416" height="306"</img>

Click here for large chart
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