FTSE 100 January

[bonsai]

Happy New Year everyone.

Let's hope this year is not quite so puzzling !
It shouldn't be as we have a number of good markers in place I think.

4082 found some very good support and was the start of the current rally.
Then we found support in the 4320 area against the bottom channel line again.

The top channel line is clear beyond the next resistance area around 4516
which is the 62% fib I have been working with.

And then if all goes well upwards to 5114 which may prove to be tops
for some time and is also 50% fib from the 2000 peak.
Extending the channel lines should also give us a good handle on the timing.

 

[bonsai]

I have been taking a look back at the previous 'bear' market rally in 1994.
This stopped at 62% of the peak and although the action was
much quicker (thanks to Ken ?) it shows the markets habit of
pulling back to this level.
So, you never know ?
If we do that now, it would take us to 5547
?

 

[bonsai]

There is one other chart you might like to keep an eye on.
It's the long term Advance/Decline Line.

Having temporarily broken down , it now seems to be clawing it's
way back into and above the trend line.

One important point is that it has not yet exceeded the level it
was at when we were at 4200 on the way down.
So it has yet to confirm this 'bear' rally

And that is a cause for concern.

 

[leeshindig]

happy new year bonsai.

Just when is this rally going to retrace?
I think this could just be the tail end of the saddam news giving it a lift......but there has been some high spikes on the ftse and dax futures after cash close this last week....over 5000 for ftse i think....so maybe an indication of people prepared to buy at those levels?

Lee

 

[bonsai]

hi Lee
It could still go anywhere either up or down, but I have set out
what I think could happen sparing some exogenous event that
nobody can foresee.

What might give this market a boost is if the Americans started
talking to some 'terrorists' and trying to negotiate a future for Iraq.

Just presenting yourself as a target doesn't seem to be doing the trick ?

Maybe somebody should tell them.

 

[2468steve]

lee,
spikes over 5000......i didn't see them...if that's the case i'll put a limit order in ......

cheers

 

[2468steve]

Bonsai,
Happy New Year to u...........it's not the American way to do things logically...

cheers

 

[adrianallen99]

Happy new year bonsai, and thanks for the charts.

 

[leeshindig]

steve

i was reading on another board that there was a lot of disgruntled traders that had sell orders in at 5000 that cmc did not fill.Yet if they had a stop order in I bet they would have been stopped out for a loss.......

I think it hit about 5005/10.....that was just info I gathered from the day traders thread on advfn fbb

Lee.

 

[Sledgehammer]

STEVE

The future traded at 4508 at about 17.29 on 23rd December and closed at 4497. For about fifteen seconds or so I thought of shorting it but didn't have the courage. Of course, it then opened at 4428 the next morning!


BONSAI

Thanks again for your informative thread. I've been lurking for some time now. As you may recall, I trade the future and don't want to clutter up your thread with "future-speak". It would only confuse things imho.


ALL

I sincerely hope that you all have a healthy and prosperous 2004.


P.S.

Re the discussion in August after E2T went belly-up, I can report that I am more than pleased with the standard of service from FfastTrade.

 

[2468steve]

Sledge,
thanks,I did see that move.Lee was mentioning a spike over 5000...now that i didn't spot...

cheers

 

[leeshindig]

sorry steve my mistake.....doh!
I meant above 500 not 5000...4500 that is.....sorry

still a bit of a hangover off new year

 

[2468steve]

Lee..no prob...in fact in this drunken Xmas stupor I thought i'd missed 24hrs somewhere

cheers

 

[bonsai]

Sledge
thanks for the consideration about Cash v Futures.
Although I trade the Cash, I do it through sb's usually, so its much the same as trading the futures in practice.

As Fair value diff is so small these days, it may not cause too much confusion if you want to post about the Futures market.

Give it a go and let's find out ?

 

[RogerM]

Interesting to compare the FTSE100 index with the FTSE 250 since Sept. Clear divergence, with 250 moving sideways in range whilst FTSE100 rises. Seems to indicate that this rally is led by just a few large cap stocks whilst the broader market moves sideways.

FTSE100 up +25 today whilst 250 is down -6.

 

[fotheringham]

Happy New Year all and thanks for your continued efforts bonsai.

Clearly my misguided attempt at calling a FTSE top failed. Thankfully my trading pot has withstood the failure, thanks mainly to dollar weakness.

My New Year resolution - predictions (as someone has said) are for weathermen !

Happy trading all.

 

[bonsai]

Fib at 4516 seems to have kicked in ?

at least for now.

 

[Hooya]

Happy New year to you all. Trust everyone had a great one.

10 green bottles sitting on a wall............

 

[barjon]

mornin' all and a prosperous new year - may all your longs scale
the heights and may all your shorts plumb the depths.

And, if you're not already I hope 2004 sees you become a
detestable market demon.

"...to learn about the market ask the market - only then can you
become a detestable market demon"
The Fountain of Gold

 

[bonsai]

all looks very corrective so far ?

a/d struggling to pick itself up off the floor