FTSE 100 February

bonsai

Veteren member
4,106 11
Let's start off with the channel chart.

What happened last month ?.
We visited the fib at 4516 twice and got buzzed both times.
Then back down to the bottom line again. So we live in critical times.
However, if you take a closer look at the chart, you may see we already have problems.
<img src="http://web.onetel.net.uk/~gawgaw/channel4.gif">

To illustrate the point, I have also posted a 'close-up' of the important section of the chart.

As I said on Thursday, a failing rally on Friday should be given a real hard look.
See what has happened for yourself. A rally on Friday which failed to break up through the support line.

We are also now below the level of December Expiry.

Not a good omen going in to the weekend.
So we must bounce in very short order to regain the support line if the trend is to continue upwards.

However if we do bounce, what is important is that we now have
clear headroom to move up to 4800 without banging our heads
on the top line. (and that will take us through resistance around 4750)
 

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china white

Established member
979 12
Bonsai - very good analysis.

One suggestion - I'd do it meself, but I hvnt got FTSE on my QCharts - did u try an inside Andrew's pitchfork anchoring at March lows, similar to what I do on "Trading ES (Q1 2004)" thread?

I cant be sure before I c it - but by the way FTSE looks on yr charts u may get a bombastic picture.
 

bonsai

Veteren member
4,106 11
China
No I didnt put Andrews on the chart. (I tend to use pitchforks for longer term issues)

But do tell , what is ES pitchfork chart telling you ?

Still trying to work out what a 'bombastic' chart looks like ?

:LOL:

Go on , give us a clue .
 

china white

Established member
979 12
bonsai - again i cant be sure b4 i c it - but I think if u use same anchors as what I do for SPX - u'll get a strong pitchfork lower boundary support a bit lower than what u reckon - somewhere btwn 300 and 350 - again i am guessing here. Which (IF i am right) wud be consistent with ES dipping to 1110-15 and then flying up to re-test the upper boundary of the pitchfork.

And - wud make a break of 4420 to the downside a non-event really. But Bonsai, as i said b4 - i need to c it 1st. Otherwise its just faffing abt on my part :)
 

barjon

Legendary member
10,705 1,809
bonsai

and if we continue south? where do you see possible support
coming in?

jon
 

bonsai

Veteren member
4,106 11
u'll get a strong pitchfork lower boundary support a bit lower than what u reckon - somewhere btwn 300 and 350

Unless I have missed it, I was hoping I hadn't given a target for the downside !
;)

I will look at that if we fail to regain the bottom line this week.
 

china white

Established member
979 12
bonsai - of coz u didnt m8 - i was referring to yr 4420ish cross of channel lower boundary sup and the horizontal one. It just seems to me - again i repeat w/o the proper pitchfork chart I am just blabbering abt here - that 4420 is of lesser importance than that lower pitchfork boundary support. :)
 

barjon

Legendary member
10,705 1,809
aw, that's not fair bonsai - we might already have shot through
womens lingerie and be on our way to china and tableware by
then :D
 

bonsai

Veteren member
4,106 11
Ah !
china, I understand now

barjon
the problem is that if the market gains downside momentum
it could go anywhere ,imo
the level may have more to do with bond/equity premium ?

anyone got a chart of that ?
 

bonsai

Veteren member
4,106 11
China
if FTSE had reached the upper boundary of my trend line
then I might have thought Andrews.

We had our chance, god knows, but we blew it.
We got stuck around 4400 and that took the wind out of the sails.

So I'm not clear that it applies to FTSE in the way it does to ES which has reached the top of your pitchfork, I think ?
 

china white

Established member
979 12
bonsai - thats exactly my thinking - i bet u if i had a chance to see a pitchfork on FTSE (which i cant because QCharts dont give me FTSE and I am currently in Brasil so I cant use Bloomberg) that 1st test of 4516 wud be EXACTLY the test of the pitchfork's upper bound, so the centre line (actually probably yr 4420) and the lower bound become mega-important.

i hv to apologise again for speaking w/o hard eveidence. if some1 cud take my anchor pts for ES and apply them to FTSE we might hv a very clear pic. which also means i cud be totally wrong :)
 

Hooya

Experienced member
1,802 2
how does one decide where to draw a pitchfork anyway.:)
 

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china white

Established member
979 12
Hooya - good thinking

I personally never use "standard" pitchforks as I find the choice of the 1st anchor rather arbitrary.

Schiff's version is very good for exponential "explosions" - but thats not a very common occurence.

The Inside modification (pls c my posts under "Trading ES (Q1 2004)" is IMO is the most realistic one - as it measures the first massive thrust and then establishes a trend at a lower slope.
 
 
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