frugi said:
Frugi:
I don´t hope for anything.....I just call it as I see it......We do have a ton of resistance at 1140.00, 1145.00 and 1150.00.....The weekly resistance R1 for this week is at 1144.00. Therefore, it is highly likely that this market will simply range-bound this week topping out around this level in the short term.....
things can change very quickly, but for today, this is the way the market looks.
I hope that Oil begins to move down, dollar moves up and that stocks move up, but that not something I can trade with....
Cheers,
PM
today´s report: (oct 20, 2004)
http://www.precisefutures.com/market_reports/sp500/October/october 20, 2004.htm
http://www.precisefutures.com/market_reports/sp500/October/october 20, 2004.htm
JTrader
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CME Globex SP500 futures contracts
I am aware that there is a direct relationship between CME Globex Index contracts and the underlying cash market. Firstly, if the cash and futures get too far out of line with each other - arbitrage computers will bring the prices back in line. Secondly - futures prices also have a price change limit that determines the prices between which the contracts can change on a daily basis. Therefore the cash and futures prices will never get far out of line with each other.
I am just wondering if there is a strong correlation between the prices of SP500 (or Nasdaq or Dow) emini contracts and the price of their full contract counterparts. Can there be significant variations? is there anything that means that the prices of emini contracts and full contracts should bare a strong correlation (besides the price change limit that determines the prices between which the contracts can change on a daily basis, and the arbitrage computers - meaning that both the emini and full contracts prices will bare a resemblance to the cash price?)
Many thanks
jtrader
I am aware that there is a direct relationship between CME Globex Index contracts and the underlying cash market. Firstly, if the cash and futures get too far out of line with each other - arbitrage computers will bring the prices back in line. Secondly - futures prices also have a price change limit that determines the prices between which the contracts can change on a daily basis. Therefore the cash and futures prices will never get far out of line with each other.
I am just wondering if there is a strong correlation between the prices of SP500 (or Nasdaq or Dow) emini contracts and the price of their full contract counterparts. Can there be significant variations? is there anything that means that the prices of emini contracts and full contracts should bare a strong correlation (besides the price change limit that determines the prices between which the contracts can change on a daily basis, and the arbitrage computers - meaning that both the emini and full contracts prices will bare a resemblance to the cash price?)
Many thanks
jtrader
Dear jtrader:
The big sp is used for hedging by large fund managers while the e-mini is used mainly by speculators....The mini follows the large futures contract in a close correlation. It will sometimes tick a bit more than the large contract, but for the most part the correlation will be as tight as it is possible to have it.
I have not personally found a way to profit from this however......but if you have any ideas that you would like to share, I would be very interested in them....
cheers,
PM
The big sp is used for hedging by large fund managers while the e-mini is used mainly by speculators....The mini follows the large futures contract in a close correlation. It will sometimes tick a bit more than the large contract, but for the most part the correlation will be as tight as it is possible to have it.
I have not personally found a way to profit from this however......but if you have any ideas that you would like to share, I would be very interested in them....
cheers,
PM
JTrader
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SP500 intraday trading
Thanks PMA
What have been your obstacles to profiting from trading the SP500? WHat has been the problem and for how long have you been trading it? and on what timescale?
I have been looking at spreadbetting as an alternative way to trade SP500. D4F (CMC) for example have a 0.5 point spread on their SP500 cash product - as opposed to the 0.25 point spread on the emini futures. Their price is based on the emini futures price minus fair value/the cost of carry. For those without the financial clout to trade the emini - CMC spreadbet may offer an alternative. The additional 0.25 pip spread does sound a lot at first (for intraday trading) - but if you subtract say $5 for commission and any capital gains tax payable from profits - the 0.25 points excess is reduced considerably (in real terms). However, I have no experience of trading SP500 and so my ideas are only theoretical.
Is anyone trading SP500 through a spreadbet platform such as CMC? if so, how constant have you found the correlation between the D4F price and the emini futures price? Do you consider the spreadbet route as a viable alternative to the emini futures?
Many thanks
jtrader.
Thanks PMA
What have been your obstacles to profiting from trading the SP500? WHat has been the problem and for how long have you been trading it? and on what timescale?
I have been looking at spreadbetting as an alternative way to trade SP500. D4F (CMC) for example have a 0.5 point spread on their SP500 cash product - as opposed to the 0.25 point spread on the emini futures. Their price is based on the emini futures price minus fair value/the cost of carry. For those without the financial clout to trade the emini - CMC spreadbet may offer an alternative. The additional 0.25 pip spread does sound a lot at first (for intraday trading) - but if you subtract say $5 for commission and any capital gains tax payable from profits - the 0.25 points excess is reduced considerably (in real terms). However, I have no experience of trading SP500 and so my ideas are only theoretical.
Is anyone trading SP500 through a spreadbet platform such as CMC? if so, how constant have you found the correlation between the D4F price and the emini futures price? Do you consider the spreadbet route as a viable alternative to the emini futures?
Many thanks
jtrader.
Last edited:
jtrader:
I trade straight futures contracts on the e-mini because of liquidity and many other advantages that can be found in these products......
I sometimes use futures spreads to trade certain markets, option spreads or a combination of futures and options.
However, the bottom line is that whatever you find yourself doing, you need to be consistant and patient.....
good trades to you....
cheers,
PMA
I trade straight futures contracts on the e-mini because of liquidity and many other advantages that can be found in these products......
I sometimes use futures spreads to trade certain markets, option spreads or a combination of futures and options.
However, the bottom line is that whatever you find yourself doing, you need to be consistant and patient.....
good trades to you....
cheers,
PMA
JTrader
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Thanks PMA
Do you mean that you have not found a way to profit from the emini sp500 generally? (I can't think of one either - and in any case - it would most likely involve large amounts of cash that I do not have to play with!)
or that you have not found a way to profit from any inbalance between the sp500 emini contract price and the sp500 full contract price?
Do you find that it is easy to trade off conventional charting/technical analysis setups - given the usually small daily ranges?
(I will ask but you may not want to answer!) How many points profit do you find is achievable per trading day or 5 day week - and upon what trading timescale is this based upon?
Thanks again
jtrader.
Do you mean that you have not found a way to profit from the emini sp500 generally? (I can't think of one either - and in any case - it would most likely involve large amounts of cash that I do not have to play with!)
or that you have not found a way to profit from any inbalance between the sp500 emini contract price and the sp500 full contract price?
Do you find that it is easy to trade off conventional charting/technical analysis setups - given the usually small daily ranges?
(I will ask but you may not want to answer!) How many points profit do you find is achievable per trading day or 5 day week - and upon what trading timescale is this based upon?
Thanks again
jtrader.
Yep, i have not found a way to profit from any inbalance between the sp500 emini contract price and the sp500 full contract price....
Do you find that it is easy to trade off conventional charting/technical analysis setups - given the usually small daily ranges?
The daily range in the sp is about 10 points on a given day.....implied volatility does not necesarily influence how wide the range might be, but it does help if this indicator is going up (which is generally when the market is moving down)......
On this type of action, it is possible to capture 3-5 points on a given day as long as you know exactly where to get in, have enough self control to draw a plan and stick to it......
Not easy to do, but possible....
I use every time frame: 1min-60 min charts, daily, weekly and monthly and combine them to generate trading signals based upon: position (relative to a moving average), chart formation entry level, count, breath of market and divergence......
The hardest part about trading is to be able to control yourself.....
cheers,
PM
Do you find that it is easy to trade off conventional charting/technical analysis setups - given the usually small daily ranges?
The daily range in the sp is about 10 points on a given day.....implied volatility does not necesarily influence how wide the range might be, but it does help if this indicator is going up (which is generally when the market is moving down)......
On this type of action, it is possible to capture 3-5 points on a given day as long as you know exactly where to get in, have enough self control to draw a plan and stick to it......
Not easy to do, but possible....
I use every time frame: 1min-60 min charts, daily, weekly and monthly and combine them to generate trading signals based upon: position (relative to a moving average), chart formation entry level, count, breath of market and divergence......
The hardest part about trading is to be able to control yourself.....
cheers,
PM
