Sp500

PMA · Aug 12, 2004

Today´s bounce (in the SP 500) from the lows sure seems to confirm that a low is in place for now.

We continue to have strong support from the 1170.00-1160.00 area. Short term support is at 1073.00-1070.00.

I had perfect sell set ups today below 1070.00 that failed to give much of anything to the downside. This is bullish.....

The vix is near a long term resistance line and it could move down tomorrow. This would be bullish for prices...

The Trin stayed bearish all day today and the market failed to do anything negative....this is also bullish for tomorrow.....

We have potential buy stops building above today´s highs 1077.10.....a lower open tomorrow morning could be a buy signal.....

We have initial resistance at 1080.00, but I would not be surprised to see 1085.00-1090.00 in a hurry...

HOWEVER....the trend is still negative, Oil prices are still near the highs, the olympics start on Friday and the Republican convention is still coming up.....

Therefore, we could also have a short covering rally that fails pretty quickly or no rally at all....

I will patiently wait for tomorrow morning to see where this thing opens and go from there.....

cheers,
PMA

TheBramble · Aug 12, 2004

PMA said:
I will patiently wait for tomorrow morning to see where this thing opens and go from there.....

Kind of sums it all up....

PMA · Aug 13, 2004

AUGUST 13, 2004

8 50 am eastern

The SP 500 moved down yesterday as the price of oil continued on to make new highs. Hurracane Charlie most be a bit responsible for this latest rise since Texas could have a slight chance of being in the storm´s path.

The Nasdaq is the weaker market and could penetrate yesterday´s lows this morning and move down to 1300.00-1290.00 short term.

Implied Volatility just broke higher and could continue to make new highs short term. This is bearish.

Today´s economic reports (from Yahoo finance):

Aug 13 8:30 AM Core PPI Jul - 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% -
Aug 13 8:30 AM PPI Jul - -0.1% 0.2% -0.3% -
Aug 13 8:30 AM Trade Balance Jun - -$46.0B -$47.0B -$46.0B -
Aug 13 9:45 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel. Aug - 97.0 97.5 96.7 -
Aug 13 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Jul - NA NA -$54.2B -

Today´s quadrants:

Q1: 1074.00-1069.00 (+) (-)

Q2: 1067.00 (-)(+)

Q3: 1064.50-1060.00 (-) (+) positive below 1060.00

SUPPORT FOR THIS MARKET IS AS FOLLOWS:

AUGUST:

at 1050: +97.47

at 1055: +97.76

at 1060: +91.84

at 1065: +68.73 (-)

at 1070: +57.06 (-)

SEP:

at 1060: +97.53

at 1065: +83.93

at 1070: +79.53 (-)

The overall support for this market is very strong at 1060.00-1050.00, we could get down to these general levels once again this week. However, unless this support changes, I don´t expect the market to move past 1050.00 in the short term.

The daily expected range for today is 10 points making it medium.

The most likely scenario for today is: A neutral open followed by a re-test of the lows at 1060.00-1163.00. We could stay within yesterday´s range and have another tight trading range this morning.

With oil prices near the highs, we are still under pressure. Any rally will be met with selling until this market (oil) sells off a bit.

let´s see what happens!

PMA · Aug 17, 2004

AUGUST 17, 2004

8 50 am eastern

The SP 500 moved higher yesterday breaking through Friday´s resistance at 1068.00 and going all the way to 1080.00. We have good resistance at 1080.00-1084.00 where previous support and the 18 day moving average are combining to stop this market from moving higher. We´ll see if this is enough to stop it or if it can continue in this direction in the coming days.

Implied Volatility is still trending higher, but like expected from last week, we are correcting down a bit oposite of stock prices.

It is at current levels where this market decides to continue with the downtrend or neutralizes it.

Today´s economic reports (from Yahoo finance):

Aug 17 8:30 AM Building Permits Jul 2055K 1930K 1950K 1924K 1945K
Aug 17 8:30 AM Core CPI Jul 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% -
Aug 17 8:30 AM CPI Jul -0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% -
Aug 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Jul 1978K 1935K 1900K 1826K 1802K
Aug 17 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Jul - 77.6% 77.5% 77.2% -
Aug 17 9:15 AM Industrial Production Jul - 0.7% 0.5% -0.3%

Today´s quadrants:

Q1: 1081.00-1075.50 (+) (-) negative above 1081.00

Q2: 1073.00 (-)(+)

Q3: 1065.00-1070.25 (+) (-)

SUPPORT FOR THIS MARKET IS AS FOLLOWS:

AUGUST:

at 1075: +53.94 (neutral)

at 1080: +51.77 (neutral)

at 1085: +45.00 (neutral)

SEP:

at 1075: +85.90

at 1080: +86.30

at 1085: +77.52

at 1090: -20.64

The overall support and resistance for this market at current levels is pretty neutral. We saw how we bounced with a strong short covering rally yesterday as expected from the 1060.00 level. Now the market has resistance at 1080.00, 1084.00 and then at 1090.00-1100.00. Support is at 1075.00-1070.00 and then at 1060.00 once again.

The daily expected range for today is more less 10 points (medium).

The most likely scenario for today is: A bullish open followed by a sell-off down into the 1075.00 area followed by another rally into 1080.00.

The price of oil is moving a bit lower this morning and should still be on our radar screen. Any rally here will mean a sell-off in stocks.

let´s see what happens!

PMA · Aug 19, 2004

Today`s report:

http://www.precisefutures.com/market_reports/sp500/August/trading AUGUST 19 ,2004.htm

PMA · Aug 20, 2004

Report for August 20, 2004

http://www.precisefutures.com/market_reports/sp500/August/trading AUGUST 20 ,2004.htm

osho67 · Aug 20, 2004

Can somebody please tell me which are the most liquid index options in US market. Thanks

PMA · Aug 20, 2004

osho67 said:
Can somebody please tell me which are the most liquid index options in US market. Thanks

the most liquid index options are in the qqq and the SP.....The qqq is the most liquid by far....open interest here runs about 200k depending on the strike......The sp which is the next most liquid has some strikes with oi of up to 4k......

Hope this helps....

cheers,

PMA