Free Commentary on indices

[Effkay]

Commentary for 15/09/2005

The S&P500 corrected once again in this session, and it seems that the downtrend may be imminent. The market tested it's 50 day average and if the index were to close below the average, I would be tempted to call the beginning of the downtrend. For now though the trend is still technically up, and the target is still 1246, for now only a break of 1201 will resume the downtrend.

The Nasdaq 100 corrected heavily in this session and closed down over 22 points. This index, like the S&P500 looks like a downtrend may be starting sooner rather than later. Although for now the trend is still up and only a break of 1551 will change that.

The FTSE 100 showed some more indecision in this session, but did manage to close up almost 10 points. The difficulty in calling the trend with this index still remains. I would say that a break of the high at 5381 will renew the uptrend, whilst a break of the 5327 level will start a new downtrend. It is best to let the market decide which way it wishes to break.

Due to the difficulty I was having in calling the FTSE trend, I did some long term analysis of the index to help me decide on a bias. The results were quite amazing. The charts and analysis are on my site.

Thanks

 

[ukhero]

Commentary for 15/09/2005

The FTSE 100 showed some more indecision in this session, but did manage to close up almost 10 points. The difficulty in calling the trend with this index still remains. I would say that a break of the high at 5381 will renew the uptrend, whilst a break of the 5327 level will start a new downtrend. It is best to let the market decide which way it wishes to break.

Thanks

I agree with your analysis of the FTSE today. Even when the DJ was falling it went from a down to an up, which surprised me. And its important to note, the threats of an oil blockade which worried buyers so much have now faded, I believe this is why. But I'm still concerned about the rise of fuel. I believe it will move higher and in the long term will effect a companies end of year results. Buyers don't like this.

I came out of the market three weeks ago as the FTSE [as you say and I agree] is proving difficult to predict. So in the short term is oil the key and sole factor that is annoying the market? Seems so.

Where is the market going? The answer may be in the opposite direction to the price of oil. Predict oil and you may have the FTSE direction firmly plotted.

Of course oil is not the sole factor involved, but it seems the higher it goes the more finicky and unpredictable the market gets.

Looking forward to your next analysis.

Yours

UK

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 16/09/2005

The S&P500 stayed relatively unchanged in this session, closing up just over half a point. It did however manage to break through the 50 day average on an intraday basis, but failed to close below it. The index therefore is still in an uptrend. The target is still 1246, and until we break 1201 for the moment the trend remains upward.

The Nasdaq 100 closed down by just over 1 point having gapped up at the open. The index is coming close to beginning a downtrend. It did test the 50 day average, but like the S&P failed to close below it. So for now the trend is up, and until we break the 1585 level, it will remain so. The target is still 1630.

The FTSE 100 tipped it's hand today, and as suspected broke to the upside. Regular readers will remember that I said that the odds favoured new highs, and that the long term trend is up. The index managed to close at a 4 year high, and so the trend is certainly up. I will be using 5327 as the trend change point here, but this will probably need to be adjusted in the coming sessions. The target is now 5549.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 20/09/2005

The S&P500 took a bad turn in this session and closed down by almost 7 points. Interesting the index did once again test the 50 day average and failed to trade below it. The index seems to be stuttering and I would say that a break of the 1224 level will take us into a dontrend. Until then the target is 1246.

The Nasdaq 100 closed down by over 13 points, in doing so the index closed below it's 50 day average and went into a downtrend. The index managed to close above the 1585 trend change point, but this is of no concern for the moment. The target now is 1550 with a trend change point of 1620.

The FTSE 100 continued it's strong performance and closed at another multiyear high. There seems to be no end to the strength displayed by this index, and longs taken at 5381 are looking healthy. The trend change point is 5327, and the target remains at 5549.

I have just done some medium term analysis of the FTSE and this seems to confirm the long term analysis I did a few sessions ago. Take a look at my site for the charts and analysis.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 21/09/2005

The S&P500 confirmed my thoughts and finally entered a downtrend in this session. The index broke and closed below the 1224 level. The target for this index is now 1200 in the short term. The trend change point is 1238.

The Nasdaq 100 continued into it's downtrend in this session, and closed down by almost 8 points. The index has a target of 1550, with only a break of 1620 changing the trend.

The FTSE 100 closed down for the first time in 5 sessions. The index is still in a strong uptrend, although a correction may be due sooner rather than later. A break below this session's high may be a good point to stop nervous longs taken at 5381, yielding 30 or so points in profit. The trend however will only change with a break of 5327. The target remains at 5549.

A lot of people have been asking for a view on the US Dollar. I have had a look at the US Dollar versus the Euro, and it seems that the dollar bull view is the one I favour at the moment. The full analysis is one the site.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 22/09/2005

The S&P500 extended it's losses, and traded lower by over 11 points. The index is in a definite downtrend here and the target is 1200. Subscribers to my mailing list got a special trade alert this afternoon, which is now in profit. The trend will only change here with a break of the 1238 level.

The Nasdaq 100 is also in a certain downtrend having traded lower by over 16 points. The target here is 1550 which is only around 10 points away. The trend will only change with a break of the 1620 level.

The FTSE 100 corrected heavily in this session, and I'm glad that most positions were stopped out as I suggested in yesterday's commentary. Although the index is still in an uptrend it is looking a little fragile. The target remains at 5549 with a break of 5327 needed to change the trend. A break of the 5447 level will renew the uptrend.

A lot of people have been asking for a view on the US Dollar. I have had a look at the US Dollar versus the Euro, and it seems that the dollar bull view is the one I favour at the moment. The full analysis is on my site.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 23/09/2005

The S&P500 made a correction within a downtrend in this session, and ended the day higher by over 4 points. It did however make a lower low. The index is still in a downtrend with 1200 as the short term target. The trend will only change with a break of the 1238 level.

The Nasdaq 100 traded in a very similar way, making a lower low but then ending the day higher by over 5 points. Again the index is in a downtrend and until we see a break of the 1620 level, it will remain so. My target of 1550 was almost hit.

There is a medium term chart of the Nasdaq 100 on my site with critical levels highlighted.

The FTSE 100 also made a lower low but ended the day higher by 16 points. The trend is still technically up, but a break of the 5354 level will take the index into a downtrend. Accordingly I will be using the break of the 5396 level as a low risk entry for a long position, as I am currently flat. The target remains at 5549.

A lot of people have been asking for a view on the US Dollar. I have had a look at the US Dollar versus the Euro, and it seems that the dollar bull view is the one I favour at the moment. The chart is available on my site.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Sorry everyone, forgot to post the commentary last night, for those interested it's on the site (always is even when I forget to put it here!)

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 27/09/2005

The S&P500 was very undecided in this session and therefore closed the session almost flat, creating a doji pattern, a break of the low of this session will confirm the pattern. The index is still in a downtrend in the short term and until we break the 1238 level, this will remain the case. The target remains at 1200.

The Nasdaq 100 ended the session higher by over 5 points, having tested it's 20 day average. The index is also in a downtrend and until we break the 1605 level this will remain the case. The target is still 1550.

The FTSE 100 did precisely what I wanted, and made another higher high. The index is in a defined uptrend with a target of 5549. The trend will only change with a break of 5354.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 28/09/2005

The S&P500 ended this session almost flat, creating a second doji pattern in a row. The index did break the low of yesterday's session, but still seems very undecided. The trend is technically down, and therefore that is the direction in which I expect the break to occur. The target is 1200, with a trend change point at 1238.

The Nasdaq 100 ended the day lower by over 4 points, and is in a downtrend at this stage. The target is still 1550 and until we break 1605 the trend will remain downward.

The FTSE 100 ended the day lower in this session by just under 6 points. The index is still in an uptrend, although increasingly it is being fuelled by a small group of stellar stocks. The index is still looking strong, although I am expecting a correction soon. Until we break 5354 the target will remain at 5549.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 29/09/2005

The S&P500 ended another session almost flat, although slightly lower. The indecision seems here to stay. The trend is still technically down, and I expect a break in the next couple of sessions. A break above 1223 will put us into an uptrend at this stage, whilst the target is still 1200.

The Nasdaq 100 ended the session slightly lower in this session, and I expect this to pick up downward momentum in the next few sessions. A break above 1585 will change the trend into an uptrend and until then the target is 1550.

The FTSE 100 made another fresh high in this session, and a correction seems non existent. I still would expect to see a correction soon, possibly before we see a break of the 5500 level. The target remains at 5549, and until we break 5354 this will remain the case.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 30/09/2005

The S&P500 broke surprisingly to the upside in this session through the 1223 level that I wrote about yesterday. The index is now in an uptrend, and only a break below the recent low at 1205 will change the trend into a downtrend again. The target for this index is now 1240.

The Nasdaq 100 broke above the critical 1585 level, and is now therefore in an uptrend. The index broke upwards strongly, and only a break below 1551 will change the trend once again.

The FTSE 100 corrected slightly in this session, I would not be surprised to see this continue in the next few sessions. It should be remembered that the trend is still certainly up, and so the expectation is that the index will rise further, with a target of 5549. The trend will only change with a break of 5354.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 03/10/2005

The S&P500 ended the session higher on Friday by just over one point. The index although technically in an uptrend seems to be trading sideways. I would like to see a break of 1230 to confirm the uptrend. The target for the moment is 1240, and until we break 1205 the trend will remain upward.

The Nasdaq 100 closed above the critical 1600 level and is in an uptrend here. Although once again I would like to see the break of the 1602 level to confirm the trend. The target for the moment is 1630, and until we break 1551 it will remain so.

The FTSE 100 rejected the 5500 level for the second time on Friday. The index is up against a very strong resistance level at this point. A decisive break of this level will renew the uptrend that we are in. We need to see a break of the 5354 level before the uptrend is nullified. The target remains at 5549.

Thanks

I have received some requests to do an analysis on Gold. I hope to have an update regarding Gold tomorrow. If anyone has any other requests please do not hesitate to pm me.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 05/10/2005

The S&P500 looks like it put in a short term top as I suggested in yesterday's commentary. The index fell by over 14 points. The trend although technically up may change very soon. A break below 1205 will change the trend, and until then the target is 1240.

The Nasdaq 100 ended the session over 10 points but not before it made a higher high. The index did therefore confirm the top, and until we break the high at 1618 the trend will not be renewed. The index is still technically in an uptrend, and the target is 1630. The trend will only change with a break of 1560.

The FTSE 100 gave up the 5500 level, and closed down by over 7 points. The index is still in an uptrend, although I would like the trend to be renewed by breaking the 5515 level before taking any new positions. The target will then be 5549. The trend will only change with a break of 5354. The index did make a hanging man pattern, which if confirmed in the following session may be the top for the moment.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 06/10/2005

The S&P500 broke down through support and ended the session over 18 points lower. There is no denying that we are now in a downtrend. The market is now through the 200 day average which tends to act as support. The target for this index is now 1183. A break of the recent high at 1234 is needed for the uptrend to be renewed. The special trade alert that was sent out to subscribers will have it's stop moved to 1232, and is now nicely in profit.

The Nasdaq 100 ended the session over 24 points lower. This index is still technically in an uptrend as it did not break the vital 1560 level, until this breaks the target is still 1630. I can't see this index holding onto the uptrend whilst there is so much weakness in the other indices, but it's always best not to argue with the trend.

The FTSE 100 corrected heavily in this session, and ended the session lower by over 66 points. The correction was very heavy, and therefore may be a sign that we have topped for the moment. It certainly confirms the hanging man seen yesterday. To put the correction into perspective, the average daily range for this index is under 40. The index is still however in an uptrend as we did not break the 5354 level. I think that the trend will change before we break this level if we fall much further in the coming sessions.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 07/10/2005

The S&P500 continued it's fall in this session, and ended just under 5 points lower. The index is in a certain downtrend here, and the our target of 1183 was met. The next target for this index is 1146. The trend will only change with a break of the 1234 level.

The Nasdaq 100 broke the 1560 level as suspected and kicked off a downtrend in this session. The index now has a target of 1485, and until we break above 1618 this will remain the case.

The FTSE 100 also broke it's critical level, and entered a downtrend. The index now has 5229 as a target, and until we break above the high at 5515, this will remain the case. I suspect that we may see some upwards movement in the coming session, but failing that, a break of this session's low will confirm the downtrend.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Sorry guys due to a balls up with data (and the spreadbetters bias!) I made a mistake on the analysis, the updated FTSE analysis is on my site.

Sorry all.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 13/10/2005

The S&P500 fell further in this session, and ended the day over 7 points lower. The index has a target of 1146 here, and it seems that the trend is now establishing itself. Our special trade target of 1173 was almost hit, and that's where the market bounced. We have tightened our stop to 1190, and will take profits on a break of 1173. The trend itself will only change with a break of 1234.

The Nasdaq 100 also fell in this session, and is also in a downtrend. The target for this index is 1485, and until we break 1618, this will remain the case.

The FTSE 100 did precisely what I wanted to see in this session, and ended the session lower by over 38 points. The index is also in a downtrend as it closed below the 50 day average. The target is 5228, and a break of 5515 will start an uptrend.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 19/10/2005
The S&P500 continued it's downtrend in this session, ending the session lower by almost 12 points. It seems to have corrected for the time being. The target is once again 1146, and until we break 1192 this will remain the case.

The Nasdaq 100 also fell in this session, ending lower by over 11 points. The index is also in a downtrend, and until we see a break of the 1618 level, 1485 will be the target.

The FTSE 100 ended the session lower by over 22 points, and it seems that this index is set to continue it's downtrend. The target is still 5228, and only a break of 5405 will change this scenario.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 20/10/2005

The S&P500 ended the session higher by over 17 points, and in doing so started it's uptrend. The index has now reversed it's downtrend, and the target is now 1235, and only a break of the recent low at 1168 will change the trend.

The Nasdaq 100 is also in an uptrend after today's strength. The index has a target of 1618, with a break of 1515 needed to change the trend.

The FTSE 100 continued it's weakness in this session, and ended the session lower by almost 100 points! The target of 5228 was comfortably reached. The index is in a sure downtrend here and the target is 5090. The index may however correct in the coming sessions due to the overextension to the downside. The trend will only change with a break of 5304.

Thanks