Headline Indices Review – 19 Feb 2003
A quick spin through the major levels, from the 1 and 5 year charts.
Dow
The persistent bear trend continues to hold sway with the current break point c8800 and major overhead resistance at 9100. Base support sits at 7500 with the lows at 7200 as the last chance saloon. A breakdown from here would herald ‘the next big move’ with a target around 6000.
To the upside, a break of 9100 is key, with a target of 10600, the peaks reached in early 2002.
Currently stuck in a 600-point range between resistance at 8200 and support at 7600. The break through 8200 to the downside completed a head and shoulder reversal with a target of 7300. This break point has not yet been retested, perhaps it may be in the next few days. On this time scale, the 7200 level is critical support, below here sits the abyss!
8200 has been pivotal to the price action since last September and continues to be the important level in this time frame.
SP500
Again the obvious bear trend sitting at 960 at the moment with base support at 780. Similar to 7200 on the Dow, a break here is the trapdoor for the next big down move, with a target of 600.
To the upside 960 provides the overhead resistance - as well as the current break of the major down trend. A break here would give an upside target of 1140, taking the market back into the area of the 2002 peaks.
A slightly tighter nearby trend at 910, however, the key overhead resistance level remains 960 to confirm any hope of prolonged upside movement. In the shorter term 870 acts in the same way as 8200 has on the Dow, a pivotal point and now key resistance in the short term.
The target for the head and shoulder pattern through 870 remains the lows at 780.
FTSE100
The bear trend looks a long way off at 4600, key overhead resistance at 4250 and recently 3600 has proven to be key support.
A new break to the downside, through 3400 paves the way for a target of 2800 basis a descending triangle pattern from 4400 to 3600.
To the upside, the 4250 level offers the key resistance, with a break here giving a target of 4850 – and no doubt an attempt to push to the major resistance (both proven and psychological) at 5000.
In the shorter term, the support at 3600 has now been established as key, a further break here will open the door to another attack at the fresh lows at 3400.
3800 provides the immediate overhead resistance (like 870 and 8200) as well as the immediate bear trend. 4250 remains clear as the major overhead resistance.
Dax
The Dax just looks damn ugly, has plenty of space to rally for the lows and still maintain an overall bear trend – currently sitting c4300 – a distance of some 60% from current levels, such has been the rate of decline in the past year.
Obvious support at 2550 and immediate resistance at 3400 with the psychological 3000 level acting as a pivot.
Year long trend sitting at 2850 with the major support levels at 2550 shown up as well as the overhead resistance at 3400.
A break of 2550 to the downside would herald the next major move to the downside with a target of 1700!!
To the upside, a break of 3400 would complete a double bottom with a target of 4250 – a return to the major bear trend.
A quick spin through the major levels, from the 1 and 5 year charts.
Dow
The persistent bear trend continues to hold sway with the current break point c8800 and major overhead resistance at 9100. Base support sits at 7500 with the lows at 7200 as the last chance saloon. A breakdown from here would herald ‘the next big move’ with a target around 6000.
To the upside, a break of 9100 is key, with a target of 10600, the peaks reached in early 2002.
Currently stuck in a 600-point range between resistance at 8200 and support at 7600. The break through 8200 to the downside completed a head and shoulder reversal with a target of 7300. This break point has not yet been retested, perhaps it may be in the next few days. On this time scale, the 7200 level is critical support, below here sits the abyss!
8200 has been pivotal to the price action since last September and continues to be the important level in this time frame.
SP500
Again the obvious bear trend sitting at 960 at the moment with base support at 780. Similar to 7200 on the Dow, a break here is the trapdoor for the next big down move, with a target of 600.
To the upside 960 provides the overhead resistance - as well as the current break of the major down trend. A break here would give an upside target of 1140, taking the market back into the area of the 2002 peaks.
A slightly tighter nearby trend at 910, however, the key overhead resistance level remains 960 to confirm any hope of prolonged upside movement. In the shorter term 870 acts in the same way as 8200 has on the Dow, a pivotal point and now key resistance in the short term.
The target for the head and shoulder pattern through 870 remains the lows at 780.
FTSE100
The bear trend looks a long way off at 4600, key overhead resistance at 4250 and recently 3600 has proven to be key support.
A new break to the downside, through 3400 paves the way for a target of 2800 basis a descending triangle pattern from 4400 to 3600.
To the upside, the 4250 level offers the key resistance, with a break here giving a target of 4850 – and no doubt an attempt to push to the major resistance (both proven and psychological) at 5000.
In the shorter term, the support at 3600 has now been established as key, a further break here will open the door to another attack at the fresh lows at 3400.
3800 provides the immediate overhead resistance (like 870 and 8200) as well as the immediate bear trend. 4250 remains clear as the major overhead resistance.
Dax
The Dax just looks damn ugly, has plenty of space to rally for the lows and still maintain an overall bear trend – currently sitting c4300 – a distance of some 60% from current levels, such has been the rate of decline in the past year.
Obvious support at 2550 and immediate resistance at 3400 with the psychological 3000 level acting as a pivot.
Year long trend sitting at 2850 with the major support levels at 2550 shown up as well as the overhead resistance at 3400.
A break of 2550 to the downside would herald the next major move to the downside with a target of 1700!!
To the upside, a break of 3400 would complete a double bottom with a target of 4250 – a return to the major bear trend.