Free Commentary on indices

[Effkay]

Commentary for 4/07/2005
The US markets will be closed in the coming session and therefore I will comment on these tomorrow.

The FTSE 100 seems to be going from strength to strength and achieved my target of 5120 convincingly. The index seems to be decoupled from the US indices and only time will tell whether this is something we will see continuing. The index however has been outperforming the Dow for over a year now so this is not particularly surprising. The target is now 5250 and the trend will only change on a break of 5036.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 5/07/2005

The S&P500 created an inside day on Friday, managing to close marginally higher. the index is in a downtrend here and only a rally above the 1205 level will change the trend, such a move would coincide with a break above the 20 day average and a close above this level would confirm the change of trend, until then the target is 1179.

The Nasdaq 100 showed continued weakness on Friday and it seems that the downtrend is here to stay at least in this index. The target is 1430, and only a close above the 1513 level will change this trend. The index is below the 200 day average and this is normally a key average to look out for.

The Dow also created an inside day on Friday, and is in a downtrend. Only a close above 10434 will change the trend as it confirm a double bottom pattern. Again this index is below the 200 day average.

The FTSE 100 continued it's surge upwards and closed at 5184. The index is certainly in an uptrend and only a break of 5036 will change this. A closed below the 20 day average will be the first sign of weakness for this index, until then the target is 5250.


Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 6/07/2005

The S&P500 decided not to stay in it's downtrend and broke through the 1205 level closing marginally below it. The index is now in an uptrend. Whether we can trust the uptrend or not remains to be seen as this index is known for faking moves. The confirmation of an uptrend will come from the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow. The Dow remains in a downtrend and a break of 10434 will change this. The target for the S&P is now once again 1220.

The Nasdaq 100 put in a strong performance in this session and closed up over 15 points. The index is still in a downtrend with a target of 1430. A break of the 1513 level will change the trend.

The FTSE 100 closed slightly higher today and continued it's recent strength. There is no denying the uptrend here despite extended rally. The index may pause for a break here and correct or base for the next few sessions. The target is still 5250 and only a break below 5036 will change this.

Thanks

 

[twiggytwo]

dow analysis

Commentary for 6/07/2005

The S&P500 decided not to stay in it's downtrend and broke through the 1205 level closing marginally below it. The index is now in an uptrend. Whether we can trust the uptrend or not remains to be seen as this index is known for faking moves. The confirmation of an uptrend will come from the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow. The Dow remains in a downtrend and a break of 10434 will change this. The target for the S&P is now once again 1220.

The Nasdaq 100 put in a strong performance in this session and closed up over 15 points. The index is still in a downtrend with a target of 1430. A break of the 1513 level will change the trend.

The FTSE 100 closed slightly higher today and continued it's recent strength. There is no denying the uptrend here despite extended rally. The index may pause for a break here and correct or base for the next few sessions. The target is still 5250 and only a break below 5036 will change this.

Hi I agree with your analysis of the DOW but have the break out at 10,478, for a confirmation of a bull signal
best Regards
twiglet

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 7/07/2005

The S&P500 was playing up in it's trend once again and closed down over 10 points, this move however only managed to create an inside day and therefore there is still hope for the uptrend. Position wise I think it's best to stay on the sidelines as there is no definite direction. Technically the trend is up and the target is 1220. A break of 1190 will renew the downtrend.

The Nasdaq 100 continued it's fall in this session, and closed down over 8 points. This index is in a defined downtrend and only a break of 1513 will change this. The target remains at 1430.

The FTSE 100 came irritatingly close to my target of 5250 and then fell back. The index did however put in a strong performance and closed just below 5230. I have heard a few people calling the top here, I for one will not be doing so, and will only trade with the trend. The index did gap up and a closing of the gap and therefore a breach of the 5194 level will indicate that this was an exhaustion gap and provide the first signs of weakness, until then the trend is up and the target remains at 5250, a break of the 5036 level will reverse the trend.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 8/07/2005

First of all I would like to send my condolences to all those people who have been affected by the terrible acts of terrorism seen in London today. My thoughts and prayers are with all of you.

As far as today's commentary is concerned, it is difficult to see whether the action seen in the sessions today counts for much, as the markets were affected strongly by the news events.

Therefore I have decided not to take into consideration any trend changes, until they are reconfirmed. Therefore the S&P500 is still in an uptrend until we break 1190. The FTSE 100 is still in an uptrend until we break 5036, and the Nasdaq 100 is still in a downtrend.

That is all for today, I shall have a fuller commentary tomorrow.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 11/07/2005

The S&P500 decided that the terror attacks in London were not of any concern, and therefore rallied hard, confirming it's uptrend and closed up almost 14 points. The trend is now certainly up, and is also confirmed by the Dow which is now also in an uptrend. The trend of the S&P500 will now change with a break of 1183. The target once again is 1220.

The Nasdaq 100 changed it's trend on Friday, and is now in an uptrend, the trend will only change with a break of 1484, the target is now 1550, and beyond that the target will be 1569.

The FTSE 100 rallied hard on Friday and corrected all the losses of Thursday. The index will now change trend with a break of the lows at 5022. The target for the index is now 5250.

All the indices are now in an uptrend and therefore the trend is confirmed in all the indices.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 12/07/2005

The S&P500 continued it's uptrend in this session, and achieved my target of 1220. The target is now 1230, and only a break of the 1183 level will change this trend.

The Nasdaq 100 didn't quite reach my target of 1550, and this is still the target for this index. The trend will only change with a break of 1484.

The FTSE 100 achieved 5250, and fell back. The index is still in an uptrend although it seems to be losing momentum. The trend will only change with a break of 5022.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 13/07/2005

The S&P500 continued it's uptrend in this session and breached the 1225 level. The target is now firmly at 1230, and only a breach of the 1183 level will change the trend, in the meantime, a close below 1190 will be a storng sign of weakness.

The Nasdaq 100 continued upwards once again, and achieved my target of 1550, as I said the target now is 1569, with a break of 1484 needed to nullify the uptrend.

The FTSE 100 took a breather today and corrected by 15 points. This is not a worry at this stage as the trend is very firmly up in this index. The target for this index a difficult one to call, but I think it should be around 5300. The trend will only reverse once we break 5022. However a close below 5158 will be a sign of real weakness.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 14/07/2005

The S&P500 ended the day almost flat within an uptrend, and created an inside day. This leaves the index looking undecided for the moment with an upward bias. The target remains at 1230, with a break of 1183 needed to change the trend.

The Nasdaq 100 created an inside day too, and this index is also in an uptrend. The target is 1569, with a break of 1484 needed to reverse the trend.

The FTSE 100 essentially reversed the previous sessions losses, and added some more to value to itself. The index is in a definite uptrend here and only a break of 5022 will change this. The target is 5300.

Thanks

 

[twiggytwo]

dow analysis?

Commentary for 14/07/2005

The S&P500 ended the day almost flat within an uptrend, and created an inside day. This leaves the index looking undecided for the moment with an upward bias. The target remains at 1230, with a break of 1183 needed to change the trend.

The Nasdaq 100 created an inside day too, and this index is also in an uptrend. The target is 1569, with a break of 1484 needed to reverse the trend.

The FTSE 100 essentially reversed the previous sessions losses, and added some more to value to itself. The index is in a definite uptrend here and only a break of 5022 will change this. The target is 5300.
Thanks

Another very helpful post Effkay, any analysis on the Dow and the Dax ?
I see a continuing correlation with the DOW--the DAX--& the S&P 500
Best Regards and thanks for the ( tech ) info.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 15/07/2005

The S&P500 ended the day after breaking the previous high, and therefore setting a new almost 4 year high. The index did however close materially lower than the high, and therefore created a shooting star pattern, which if confirmed in the coming session may signal the top of the bull market, but ONLY if we get confirmation. The index is still in a definite uptrend and the next target is 1250. The trend will only change with a break of 1183.

The Nasdaq 100 gapped up and closed higher by almost 16 points. The index however still has not taken out the highs formed earlier this year at 1635 or so. This is now the target for the index. The trend will only change with a break of the 1484 level. A closing of the gap, and therefore a break of the 1559 level will signal real weakness.

The FTSE 100 closed firmer and therefore set a new 3 year high. The index is in an uptrend with 5300 as the target only a break of 5022 will break the trend.

I was asked to comment on the Dow and the Dax, and therefore will cover these markets now.

The Dow is in an undeniable uptrend, and the target on this index is 11000 in the short term. The trend will change with a break of the 10175. In the longer term, the target is 11600, with a break of the 10000 level needed to nullify this target.

The Dax is in an undeniable uptrend and achieved my longer term target of 4700, the trend will change with a close below 4530.

The interesting thing to note here is that all the indices bar the Dow and the Nasdaq are setting new multi year highs. Therefore the Dow and the Nasdaq will need to catch up with the other indices to match the performance of the smaller cap indices in the US, or the S&P500 will need to give up some of the gains at this level.

Thanks

 

[travllr]

Redoing The Math Of An Index

6/12/2005 18:27 (Memorable Commentary) S.& P. has chosen to smooth out the numbers by excluding one-time dividend blips. But that doesn't make its total-return math more logical.


http://www.investing-news.com/artman/publish/article_936.shtml


trav

 

[twiggytwo]

Dow /Dax Analysis

Commentary for 15/07/2005

The S&P500 ended the day after breaking the previous high, and therefore setting a new almost 4 year high. The index did however close materially lower than the high, and therefore created a shooting star pattern, which if confirmed in the coming session may signal the top of the bull market, but ONLY if we get confirmation. The index is still in a definite uptrend and the next target is 1250. The trend will only change with a break of 1183.

The Nasdaq 100 gapped up and closed higher by almost 16 points. The index however still has not taken out the highs formed earlier this year at 1635 or so. This is now the target for the index. The trend will only change with a break of the 1484 level. A closing of the gap, and therefore a break of the 1559 level will signal real weakness.

The FTSE 100 closed firmer and therefore set a new 3 year high. The index is in an uptrend with 5300 as the target only a break of 5022 will break the trend.

I was asked to comment on the Dow and the Dax, and therefore will cover these markets now.

The Dow is in an undeniable uptrend, and the target on this index is 11000 in the short term. The trend will change with a break of the 10175. In the longer term, the target is 11600, with a break of the 10000 level needed to nullify this target.

The Dax is in an undeniable uptrend and achieved my longer term target of 4700, the trend will change with a close below 4530.

The interesting thing to note here is that all the indices bar the Dow and the Nasdaq are setting new multi year highs. Therefore the Dow and the Nasdaq will need to catch up with the other indices to match the performance of the smaller cap indices in the US, or the S&P500 will need to give up some of the gains at this level.

Thanks

Thank you EFFKAY for the analysis, it confirms my indicators.
Best Regards

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 18/07/2005
The S&P500 failed to confirm the shooting star signal, and therefore the end of the trend has not been signalled. The trend is still up and therefore the target is still 1250. The trend will only change with a break of 1183.

The Nasdaq 100 put in another higher high, and in doing so did not close the gap. The trend is still up, and there seems to be no signs of weakness. A closing of the gap at 1559 will be the first real sign of weakness. The target is 1635 and only a break of 1559 will change the trend.

The FTSE 100 confirmed the shooting star signal seen on Thursday, which may signal the end of the uptrend. Any short positions will be risky at this stage, but may be justified. The target is 5300, and it seems that only a break of 5022 will change the trend, even though I would suggest that a close below 5158 will change the trend.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 19/07/2005

The S&P500 traded lower in this session by around 7 points. This is definitely not seen as a worry at the moment within this uptrend. The market may take a few days to correct or base, but the target remains at 1250. Only a break of 1183 will change the trend. A close below the 20 day average at 1208 will be the first real sign of weakness.

The Nasdaq 100 created an inside day in this session, and once again failed to close the gap at 1559. The index is still in a strong uptrend with 1635 as the target. A close below 1559 will signal weakness, whereas only a break below 1484 will change the trend.

The FTSE 100 continued it's fall in this session, and it seems like the shooting star had some power after all. Any short positions should be cautious. The trend is still technically up, and only a break of 5022 will change this. The target remains at 5300.

Thanks

 

[danfreek]

I wouldn't be too worried about the FTSE, it's due some consolidation anyway after it's pretty spectacular move recently, I agree that we're looking at higher prices.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 20/07/2005

The S&P500 continued it's uptrend today, and closed up over 8 points. The index is most definitely in an uptrend, and it seems that 1250 is still the target. The trend will only change with a break of 1183. As I said the first sign of weakness will be seen when we close below the 20 day average at 1209.

The Nasdaq 100 continued it's trend, and 1635 is certainly on the cards now. The trend will only change with a break of 1484. A break of 1559 will be the first sign of weakness.

The FTSE 100 continued it's recent weakness, but managed to close above the critical 5200 level. The trend is still however up, and any short positions taken after the shooting star should be covered at the first sign of strength. The trend will change on a break of 5022, and until then the target is 5300.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 21/07/2005

It's been a day of celebrations, as the Society of Technical Analysts diploma results were announced, and I managed to achieve a Distinction. Therefore making me a qualified technical analyst!

Anyway back to what you're here for.

The S&P500 continued it's rise, and therefore the trend is definitely up. The target is still 1250, and until we see a break of 1221 this remains so.

The Nasdaq 100 continued it's rise, and managed to close above the critical 1600 level. The target of 1635 is certainly within reach now. The trend will only change with a break of 1484, and a break of 1559 will be the first real sign of weakness. The interesting thing about the gap seen the other day, is that if it turns out to be a continuation gap, the target achieved from this is 1634, which ties in nicely with the target of 1535.

The FTSE 100 showed some strength for the first time in 4 sessions. The target of 5300 is now reaffirmed, and only a break of 5022 will change this.

Thanks

 

[twiggytwo]

Congratulations on your Technical Analysis Diploma Results EFFKAY.
My Best Regards