Commentary for 22/07/2005
The S&P500 traded lower by over 8 points in this session. This however is not a problem at this stage, given the recent strength we have seen in the index. The trend is still most certainly up and 1250 remains as the target. Only a break of 1221 will change this situation.
The Nasdaq closed down slightly, but not before putting in another higher high. Again the trend is up and 1635 is still in sight. I have been looking for a good point to define as the trend change point, yet the best I can come up with is 1484. I am tempted to say that once we break 1559 I will probably say that the trend has changed, but we will have to wait and see how that happens.
It may be best to leave the actions of FTSE 100, and regard the lows as anomalous, due to another bout of mindless terrorism in the capital. The trend is still up, but as far as a trend change point is concerned, it is difficult to comment. We will have to wait for tomorrow's action.
Thanks
The S&P500 traded lower by over 8 points in this session. This however is not a problem at this stage, given the recent strength we have seen in the index. The trend is still most certainly up and 1250 remains as the target. Only a break of 1221 will change this situation.
The Nasdaq closed down slightly, but not before putting in another higher high. Again the trend is up and 1635 is still in sight. I have been looking for a good point to define as the trend change point, yet the best I can come up with is 1484. I am tempted to say that once we break 1559 I will probably say that the trend has changed, but we will have to wait and see how that happens.
It may be best to leave the actions of FTSE 100, and regard the lows as anomalous, due to another bout of mindless terrorism in the capital. The trend is still up, but as far as a trend change point is concerned, it is difficult to comment. We will have to wait for tomorrow's action.
Thanks
holiday/effkay
Hi EFFKAY,
You have been missed, nice to have you back, as your tech read is top class.
Best Regards
Effkay said:Hi everyone! After a wonderful month in Florence I have returned, and therefore I hope to resume the commentaries as of tomorrow!! I hope I've not been missed too much
Hi EFFKAY,
You have been missed, nice to have you back, as your tech read is top class.
Best Regards
JillyB
Established member
- Messages
- 791
- Likes
- 38
I did wonder where you had got to - thought you had deserted us!
Mind you - a month in Italy - perfect!!!!!!!!!! Love the place. Just been looking at possibly buying a place out there - just outside Lucca - then I can spend as much time there as I want! :cheesy:
Mind you - a month in Italy - perfect!!!!!!!!!! Love the place. Just been looking at possibly buying a place out there - just outside Lucca - then I can spend as much time there as I want! :cheesy:
D
daps
Hi...,
Congratulations on your Technical Analysis Diploma. Will you be resuming your very informative daily market commentary soon.?
Best Regards
Congratulations on your Technical Analysis Diploma. Will you be resuming your very informative daily market commentary soon.?
Best Regards
Hi daps,
Thanks you for the congrats.
I was hoping to restart the commentary last night, but I was having real computer issues, which also cost me today's trading! Why is it that when a pc hasn't been used for a while it's as if it's out of practice?! Anyway I hope to resume tonight, my website normally has details of what I'm doing with regards to commentaries and analysis.
All the best
Thanks you for the congrats.
I was hoping to restart the commentary last night, but I was having real computer issues, which also cost me today's trading! Why is it that when a pc hasn't been used for a while it's as if it's out of practice?! Anyway I hope to resume tonight, my website normally has details of what I'm doing with regards to commentaries and analysis.
All the best
Commentary for 02/09/2005
Good evening, after a good few weeks away from the market, I'm back and so the commentaries will continue once again. I hope everyone has had a successful few weeks trading!
The S&P500 is in a downtrend as it has been for the most of August. The trend looks set to continue with a break above 1229 needed to reverse the trend.
The Nasdaq 100 is in a very similar position to the S&P500, it too is in a downtrend and has been for the most of August. The trend will only change with a break of 1589.
The FTSE 100 however has been a lot more interesting of late. After a good bull run into the middle of August (it reversed on my birthday as it happens!), the market reversed and sold off. It looks like it made a perfect abc correction (Elliott wave), and now looks set to continue the bull run. As far as the short term trend is concerned, I would say it was still in a downtrend, and until we break this session's high at 5343, the trend will remain downwards.
Thanks
Good evening, after a good few weeks away from the market, I'm back and so the commentaries will continue once again. I hope everyone has had a successful few weeks trading!
The S&P500 is in a downtrend as it has been for the most of August. The trend looks set to continue with a break above 1229 needed to reverse the trend.
The Nasdaq 100 is in a very similar position to the S&P500, it too is in a downtrend and has been for the most of August. The trend will only change with a break of 1589.
The FTSE 100 however has been a lot more interesting of late. After a good bull run into the middle of August (it reversed on my birthday as it happens!), the market reversed and sold off. It looks like it made a perfect abc correction (Elliott wave), and now looks set to continue the bull run. As far as the short term trend is concerned, I would say it was still in a downtrend, and until we break this session's high at 5343, the trend will remain downwards.
Thanks
Commentary for 05/09/2005
The S&P500 is still in a firm downtrend here despite the rally seen in the middle of last week. The market showed further weakness by closing below the 20 day average on Friday. A close above this level will be the first sign of strength. The trend will only change here if we see a break of the 1229 level. Until then the target is 1200.
The Nasdaq 100 is again in a very similar position, and is closing below the 20 day average. The target for the moment is 1550, and only a break above 1589 will change the trend.
The FTSE 100 ended the day Friday almost flat, and it seems that the index is a bit indecisive at the moment. Although technically I would class the trend as downward, it would not surprise me to see the trend changing in the coming session with a break above the 5343 level. The index is showing some signs of strength and traded completely above the 20 day average on Friday. The target for now remains at 5225.
Thanks
The S&P500 is still in a firm downtrend here despite the rally seen in the middle of last week. The market showed further weakness by closing below the 20 day average on Friday. A close above this level will be the first sign of strength. The trend will only change here if we see a break of the 1229 level. Until then the target is 1200.
The Nasdaq 100 is again in a very similar position, and is closing below the 20 day average. The target for the moment is 1550, and only a break above 1589 will change the trend.
The FTSE 100 ended the day Friday almost flat, and it seems that the index is a bit indecisive at the moment. Although technically I would class the trend as downward, it would not surprise me to see the trend changing in the coming session with a break above the 5343 level. The index is showing some signs of strength and traded completely above the 20 day average on Friday. The target for now remains at 5225.
Thanks
Commentary for 06/09/2005
The US market was closed today, and therefore yesterday's comments still hold:
The S&P500 is still in a firm downtrend here despite the rally seen in the middle of last week. The market showed further weakness by closing below the 20 day average on Friday. A close above this level will be the first sign of strength. The trend will only change here if we see a break of the 1229 level. Until then the target is 1200.
The Nasdaq 100 is again in a very similar position, and is closing below the 20 day average. The target for the moment is 1550, and only a break above 1589 will change the trend.
The FTSE 100 however was open for trading today, and it seems that it was the second day of sideways trading. The trend is still down and only a break above 5343 will change the trend. The target now is 5225.
Thanks
The US market was closed today, and therefore yesterday's comments still hold:
The S&P500 is still in a firm downtrend here despite the rally seen in the middle of last week. The market showed further weakness by closing below the 20 day average on Friday. A close above this level will be the first sign of strength. The trend will only change here if we see a break of the 1229 level. Until then the target is 1200.
The Nasdaq 100 is again in a very similar position, and is closing below the 20 day average. The target for the moment is 1550, and only a break above 1589 will change the trend.
The FTSE 100 however was open for trading today, and it seems that it was the second day of sideways trading. The trend is still down and only a break above 5343 will change the trend. The target now is 5225.
Thanks
Commentary for 07/09/2005
The S&P500 kicked off an uptrend in a spectacular fashion in this session by closing up over 15 points. The market is now definitely in an uptrend, as it closed above the 20 day average and the critical 1229 level. The target is now 1246 and only a break below 1201 will resume the downtrend.
The Nasdaq 100 also resumed it's uptrend in this session and closed up over 24 points. This index too is in an uptrend and only a break below 1551 will change the direction of the trend. The uptrend here is not as convincing as it is in the S&P500, and I would like to see confirmation of the uptrend in the coming session, as we break above 1598. The round number resistance beyond that means that I would like to see the index go through 1600 before I am convinced of the uptrend. The target will then be 1630.
The FTSE 100 convincingly resumed it's uptrend in this session, and set 5386 as the target. The index seems strong here and only a break below 5228 will change the trend.
Thanks
The S&P500 kicked off an uptrend in a spectacular fashion in this session by closing up over 15 points. The market is now definitely in an uptrend, as it closed above the 20 day average and the critical 1229 level. The target is now 1246 and only a break below 1201 will resume the downtrend.
The Nasdaq 100 also resumed it's uptrend in this session and closed up over 24 points. This index too is in an uptrend and only a break below 1551 will change the direction of the trend. The uptrend here is not as convincing as it is in the S&P500, and I would like to see confirmation of the uptrend in the coming session, as we break above 1598. The round number resistance beyond that means that I would like to see the index go through 1600 before I am convinced of the uptrend. The target will then be 1630.
The FTSE 100 convincingly resumed it's uptrend in this session, and set 5386 as the target. The index seems strong here and only a break below 5228 will change the trend.
Thanks
Commentary for 08/09/2005
The S&P500 continued it's uptrend in this session, admittedly only slightly, closing up just under 3 points. The index did however confirm it's uptrend by creating a higher high, and trading completely above it's 20 day average. The target is still 1246, with a break below 1201 needed to invalidate the uptrend.
The Nasdaq 100 convinced me of it's uptrend in this session by breaking the 1600 level, however the break was only marginal and it failed to close above it. Nevertheless I think this index is now in a confirmed uptrend and therefore the target is 1630. A break below 1551 is now needed the change the trend.
The FTSE 100 closed up just shy of 7 points. This index is still strong and has 5386 as the target. The trend will change with a break of 5228.
Thanks
The S&P500 continued it's uptrend in this session, admittedly only slightly, closing up just under 3 points. The index did however confirm it's uptrend by creating a higher high, and trading completely above it's 20 day average. The target is still 1246, with a break below 1201 needed to invalidate the uptrend.
The Nasdaq 100 convinced me of it's uptrend in this session by breaking the 1600 level, however the break was only marginal and it failed to close above it. Nevertheless I think this index is now in a confirmed uptrend and therefore the target is 1630. A break below 1551 is now needed the change the trend.
The FTSE 100 closed up just shy of 7 points. This index is still strong and has 5386 as the target. The trend will change with a break of 5228.
Thanks
Commentary for 09/09/2005
The S&P500 pulled back slightly in this session, closing the day down by almost 5 points. The index is however still in a firm uptrend, and only a break below 1201 will change the trend. The target remains at 1246. The first signs of weakness will be seen if we close below the critical 1220 level.
The Nasdaq 100 actually managed to put in a higher high in the session, but still could not close above the 1600 level. The next few sessions should bring a decisive close above 1600. If not, then the trend may have to be reconsidered. Until then the target is 1630, with a break below 1551 needed to change the trend.
The FTSE 100 was the weakest of the indices I cover in the session, and closed down over 25 points. The index still seems to be in a strong uptrend, and the target remains fixed at 5386. A break of 5228 is still needed for a change of trend. A substantial breach of the 5300 level may require a rethink of the trend.
Thanks
P.S thank you for the kind words ukhero
The S&P500 pulled back slightly in this session, closing the day down by almost 5 points. The index is however still in a firm uptrend, and only a break below 1201 will change the trend. The target remains at 1246. The first signs of weakness will be seen if we close below the critical 1220 level.
The Nasdaq 100 actually managed to put in a higher high in the session, but still could not close above the 1600 level. The next few sessions should bring a decisive close above 1600. If not, then the trend may have to be reconsidered. Until then the target is 1630, with a break below 1551 needed to change the trend.
The FTSE 100 was the weakest of the indices I cover in the session, and closed down over 25 points. The index still seems to be in a strong uptrend, and the target remains fixed at 5386. A break of 5228 is still needed for a change of trend. A substantial breach of the 5300 level may require a rethink of the trend.
Thanks
P.S thank you for the kind words ukhero
Commentary for 12/09/2005
The S&P500 closed up almost 10 points on Friday, confirming my earlier analysis of an uptrend. The target of 1246 was almost reached, but we fell short by around 3 points. The index is still in an uptrend and 1246 remains the target. The trend will only change on a break of 1201.
The Nasdaq 100 made it's decisive move over 1600, and therefore is in a solid uptrend. The target remains at 1630. The trend will only change on a break of 1551. The first signs of weakness will be seen with a break of the 1580 level.
The FTSE 100 closed up around 18 points on Friday, and looks set to make a new high sooner or later. The trend is definitely up and the target is 5386. The trend will only change with a break of the 5228 level.
Thanks
The S&P500 closed up almost 10 points on Friday, confirming my earlier analysis of an uptrend. The target of 1246 was almost reached, but we fell short by around 3 points. The index is still in an uptrend and 1246 remains the target. The trend will only change on a break of 1201.
The Nasdaq 100 made it's decisive move over 1600, and therefore is in a solid uptrend. The target remains at 1630. The trend will only change on a break of 1551. The first signs of weakness will be seen with a break of the 1580 level.
The FTSE 100 closed up around 18 points on Friday, and looks set to make a new high sooner or later. The trend is definitely up and the target is 5386. The trend will only change with a break of the 5228 level.
Thanks
Commentary for 13/09/2005
I have added charts to commentaries so that you get an idea of what I am discussing. The charts are on my site.
The S&P500 created an inside day today, indicating that traders may be a little indecisive as we head towards setting new highs. The trend of the index is still definitely up, but on a grander scale we may be setting up for a big double top. The confirmation of the top will come in if we do not hit new highs and then fall through the 1201 level. I do however think that the odds favour new highs. I will stay cautiously long.
The Nasdaq 100 managed to create a higher high but is still considerably off the high. The index seems to be in a strong uptrend with a target of 1630. The trend change point is still 1551.
The FTSE 100 managed to close higher in this session but seems to be struggling a little bit intraday. The index is in a defined uptrend, although like the S&P500 this index looks like it may be heading for a double top formation. The formation will complete on a break of 5228 if no new highs are seen. The 20 day average has also been a little flat for a while now. Therefore I have tightened the stop up to 5338, which will provide enough protection for the moment. I do still feel the odds favour new highs.
Thanks
I have added charts to commentaries so that you get an idea of what I am discussing. The charts are on my site.
The S&P500 created an inside day today, indicating that traders may be a little indecisive as we head towards setting new highs. The trend of the index is still definitely up, but on a grander scale we may be setting up for a big double top. The confirmation of the top will come in if we do not hit new highs and then fall through the 1201 level. I do however think that the odds favour new highs. I will stay cautiously long.
The Nasdaq 100 managed to create a higher high but is still considerably off the high. The index seems to be in a strong uptrend with a target of 1630. The trend change point is still 1551.
The FTSE 100 managed to close higher in this session but seems to be struggling a little bit intraday. The index is in a defined uptrend, although like the S&P500 this index looks like it may be heading for a double top formation. The formation will complete on a break of 5228 if no new highs are seen. The 20 day average has also been a little flat for a while now. Therefore I have tightened the stop up to 5338, which will provide enough protection for the moment. I do still feel the odds favour new highs.
Thanks
Commentary for 14/09/2005
The S&P500 corrected strongly in this session, and closed down almost 10 points. This doesn't give too much cause for concern at the moment, but it does show that the possibility of a double top is very real. The target is still 1246, and for now only a break of 1201 will change that.
The Nasdaq 100 did actually manage to put in a higher high once again this session, but closed down by around 5 points. Again the index is still an uptrend, and the target of 1630 is still valid. For now only a break of 1551 will change the trend.
The FTSE 100 was quite interesting today, it took out my stop, and closed precisely at the same level! This makes it very difficult to call what will happen in the next few sessions. I certainly will not pronounce the beginning of a downtrend just yet, and will call for a resumption of the uptrend on a break of 5381. Further sessions will resolve the short term situation.
Due to the difficulty I was having in calling the FTSE trend, I did some long term analysis of the index to help me decide on a bias. The results were quite amazing.
Once again charts are available on the site.
Thanks
The S&P500 corrected strongly in this session, and closed down almost 10 points. This doesn't give too much cause for concern at the moment, but it does show that the possibility of a double top is very real. The target is still 1246, and for now only a break of 1201 will change that.
The Nasdaq 100 did actually manage to put in a higher high once again this session, but closed down by around 5 points. Again the index is still an uptrend, and the target of 1630 is still valid. For now only a break of 1551 will change the trend.
The FTSE 100 was quite interesting today, it took out my stop, and closed precisely at the same level! This makes it very difficult to call what will happen in the next few sessions. I certainly will not pronounce the beginning of a downtrend just yet, and will call for a resumption of the uptrend on a break of 5381. Further sessions will resolve the short term situation.
Due to the difficulty I was having in calling the FTSE trend, I did some long term analysis of the index to help me decide on a bias. The results were quite amazing.
Once again charts are available on the site.
Thanks
For what is worth:
The FTSE has moved from a slow rise to a neutral. It is hesitant. Buyers will hold back until circumstances prove favourable or until they can fill up their BM's and Mercedes without queuing for 30 mins at a Petrol Station. I'm a great believer in news driving the FTSE, and the news on the great black board of life is a down for the coming day.
Keep up the good work.
P.s love your Avatar. I'm a Simson fan too.
Yours
UK
The FTSE has moved from a slow rise to a neutral. It is hesitant. Buyers will hold back until circumstances prove favourable or until they can fill up their BM's and Mercedes without queuing for 30 mins at a Petrol Station. I'm a great believer in news driving the FTSE, and the news on the great black board of life is a down for the coming day.
Keep up the good work.
P.s love your Avatar. I'm a Simson fan too.
Yours
UK
Thanks for the comments UK,
I think I agree with you that the market is neutral at the moment in the short term, which is why I did a long term analysis to try to create a bias as to which way the market will move when it does. I think you are right about the news aspect too, but as I have said before, I try to ignore news and focus solely on the price action (with the exception of events like 9/11, 7/7, which tend to suggest that market action on that day should be ignored).
I will wait for a decisive break in either direction before I make up my mind about the short term direction, although I still think the odds favour an uptrend.
I think I agree with you that the market is neutral at the moment in the short term, which is why I did a long term analysis to try to create a bias as to which way the market will move when it does. I think you are right about the news aspect too, but as I have said before, I try to ignore news and focus solely on the price action (with the exception of events like 9/11, 7/7, which tend to suggest that market action on that day should be ignored).
I will wait for a decisive break in either direction before I make up my mind about the short term direction, although I still think the odds favour an uptrend.
