Free Commentary on indices

[Effkay]

Hi Everyone,

I do a free commentary on the indices on my website if anyone is interested, a sample for for the 14th is here:

Commentary for 14/06/2005
The S&P500 traded higher in this session by almost 3 points and closed above 1200. Technically the trend is still down and therefore the target is still 1185. A break of 1209 will change the direction of the trend. I feel that although the trend is down, the lack of weakness seen since the break makes me think that the break may have been false, and therefore an uptrend may resume sooner rather than later, but until we break to the upside this is mere speculation.

The Nasdaq 100 traded higher by approximately 8 points, and managed to break the previous session's high by just over 1 point. The trend in this market is down, and there is much weakness in the index. The target remains at 1500 and a break of 1569 will end the downtrend.

The FTSE 100 continued with it's strength in this session, and shows no signs of slowing. The gap mentioned in the previous commentary has not been filled and until it is the trend is very strongly up. A filling of the gap at 5009 will be the first real sign of weakness and thereafter the trend will change with a break of 4976. Until then the target stays at 5078.

Please let me know what you think and all feedback is definitely welcome.

There is also a full archive of the the commentaries and a section on UK stock trends.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 15/06/2005

The S&P500 traded higher once again in this session. The index now seems like it will reverse the downtrend in the next few sessions. The index came close to breaking the 1209 level which is where the trend will change and continue upwards. The target stays at 1185 for now.

The Nasdaq 100 traded lower by almost 5 points and is the weakest of all the indices I cover. The index made an inside day in this session, and the next few days will be crucial for this index. It will either lead the way for the other indices and continue with the downtrend, or it will have to change direction by breaking through the 1569 which is the recent high.

The FTSE 100 was relatively unchanged by the end of the session and therefore the trend remains up. The gap is still unfilled and a filling of the gap at 5009 will be the first real sign of weakness, until then the target is 5078 and only a break of 4976 will change the direction of the trend.

The Dow Jones Industrial Index has still not gone into a downtrend and this is a cause for confusion as far as the short term direction for the US indices is concerned. At the moment the Dow has been moving sideways for almost a month, and a break of 10443 will reverse the uptrend which is still technically in tact. A break of this level will put the S&P, Nasdaq and the Dow into a downtrend which will hopefully resolve the confusion seen in recent weeks.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 16/06/2005

The S&P500 traded higher again in this session, stopping just short of breaking above the 1209 level and therefore reversing the trend. The index ended the session up by only around 3 points. The trend is still down and until we see a break of the 1209 level the target is still 1185. The index seems to be strong and refuses to trade below the 20 day average, however the reluctance to break the 1209 level adds to any bearish argument.

The Nasdaq 100 ended the session 5 points higher after gapping up at the open by around 7 points. This index is still very weak and is in a clear short term downtrend. The target remains at 1500 and only a break of 1569 will reverse the trend.

The FTSE 100 partially filled the gap by trading with 5013 as a low, until 5009 is breached the index is very strong and therefore 5078 is still the target. Only a break of 4976 will actually reverse the trend.

I made a special mention of the Dow in my previous commentary and this index traded higher for a fifth straight session but is still trading sideways as far as a trend is concerned. It is sticking closely to it's 20 day average and is not closing below it. A break in either direction should end the confusion for the short term.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

1209 taken out on the S&P500, may be the start of an uptrend now.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 17/06/2005

The S&P500 finally broke through the 1209 and therefore resumed the uptrend. I anticipated this action in my previous commentaries and therefore it comes as no surprise. Therefore the target is once again 1229 and the trend change point is 1191 once again. The index is firmly above it's 20 day average and a break below this will be the first sign of weakness.

The Nasdaq 100 traded higher by almost 8 points, and in doing so tested it's 20 day average from below. The index is still in a downtrend but if there is strength across all the US indices, it is hard to imagine that this index will not take part in the uptrend. At the moment the target still stands at 1500 and only a break of the high at 1569 will change the trend. A move above the 20 day average will be the first real sign of strength.

The FTSE 100 refused to close the gap and trade below 5009 and ended the session over 25 points higher. This index is now showing a lot of strength and the target is 5078. The trend will change at 4976, and a closing of the gap at 5009 will be the first sign of weakness.

The Dow showed initial strength but only managed to close 12 or so points higher. The index is still in a sideways movement with an upward bias, as it traded above it's recent significant high, but until it takes out 10600 the index is still in congestion.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 20/06/2005

The S&P500 put in a strong performance and in doing so closed just shy of 1217, and now the index has just gone positive for this year. It is said that all years ending in '5' are positive for the indices. It seemed that this was not to be the case for 2005, but it seems it may still happen. The index did however leave a gap between the sessions on Thursday and Friday. The gap will close with a fall below 1212, and this will be the first sign of weakness, the trend however will only change with a break of 1191, until then the index is in a strong uptrend and the target is the high at 1229.

The Nasdaq 100 gapped up at the open by around 13 points, and this level marked the session's high, the index then fell to end the session 0.7 points up. This shows the underlying weakness in this index, which is still in a downtrend. As far as the short term trend is concerned, the index could not close above the 20 day average, a break of this will be the first real sign of strength, and as far as the medium term trend is concerned, this would be a good buying opportunity as the rest of the indices are very strong. A stop should be placed below 1510 if any long positions are taken. Until then the short term target is 1200, and the trend will only change with a break of 1569.

The FTSE 100 put in a strong performance and achieved the target of 5078. The index could not break above 5100, but is still very strong. The target now is at 5120 and only a break of 5013 will change the trend.

The Dow broke out of it's range and broke above 10600. This should now end the short term confusion, as the indices should now show some strength, the trend in the Dow will change with a break of 10443.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 21/06/2005

The S&P500 closed marginally lower in this session. The index did however close the gap mentioned in my previous commentary and put in a low above 1210. The index is still strong, and may take a few days to correct or trade sideways. The short term trend will only change with a break of 1191, and a break of the 20 day average will be the first sign of weakness. The target remains at 1229.

The Nasdaq 100 closed slightly lower in this session, below its 20 day average. A break of this average will be the first sign of strength as the index is still in a short term downtrend. As I said previously a close above the 20 day average will be a good signal to take a medium term long position with a stop below 1510, until then the target is 1500.

The FTSE 100 made an inside day and closed down just over 5 points. This index is still strong, and only a break below 5013 will change the trend. The target is 5120.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 22/06/2005

The S&P500 traded in a narrow range and created an inside day, closing down just under 2.5 points. As I said previously the index looks like it will take a few days to correct or base, and until we see a move in a particular there is very little to say. The trend is still up with a target of 1229. The trend will only change with a break of 1191.

The Nasdaq 100 was relatively unchanged, closing down by 0.8 points or so, again the index is doing very little, and until we see some defined directional movement, there is little to say. The index is in a downtrend with a target of 1500, only a break of 1551 will change the trend.

The FTSE 100 ended the longest day of the year on a positive note, and closed at it's highest level for three years. The trend is still strongly up for this index, and until we see a break of 5013, the target is 5120

Little to report today, however I have added a new Stock Ratings section to the website today, take a look.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 23/06/2005

The S&P500 traded sideways once again, and there is very little progress being made. A close below 1212 will be the first sign of weakness, but only a break of 1191 will change the trend. The target is 1229.

The Nasdaq 100 traded lower by just over 2 points, and it too is trading in a narrow range. A break below 1526 will renew the downtrend and a break above 1551 will reverse the trend into an uptrend.

The FTSE 100 continued it's strong performance and closed at a new 3 year high, albeit just below 5100. The target is still 5120 and only a break below 5013 will change this.

Again very little to say!! Sorry guys!

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 24/06/2005

Wow! I didn't see that coming!!

The S&P500 traded down by over 13 points in this session, and certainly showed signs of weakness! We did however manage to stay above the 1200 level for the entire session, but closed below the 20 day average. The index incredibly is still in an uptrend and only a break of 1191 will change that. The target remains at 1229. The next few sessions will be critical, because if we can hold above the 1200 level, it shows underlying strength despite the large correction.

The Nasdaq 100 tried to break above 1550 but couldn't and in doing so renewed the downtrend. The target is now 1500 and only a break above 1551 will change that.

The FTSE 100 on the other hand closed on a three year high once again, and closed at 5114. It reached my target of 5120 but failed to close above it. Therefore the target is now 5230 and only a break below 5013 will change that. I do feel however that the next few sessions will be weak as we feel the effect from the US markets. This does not mean however that any short positions should be taken until 5013 is broken.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 27/06/2005

The S&P500 continued it's fall on Friday and closed down over 9 points. The trend looks like it wants to change at this point. A break of the 1191 level will definitely confirm a change of trend, and hence any short positions can be taken. The index traded completely below the 20 day average. The trend is still however up, and it's the only Major US index that I cover that is still not in a downtrend.

The Dow is in a downtrend and the target is 10075, a break of the recent high at 10647 will change this.

The Nasdaq 100 stopped just short of the 1500 target on Friday, and is still in a downtrend. The target is still 1500 and beyond this it will be 1430. The trend will only change with a break of 1551.

The FTSE 100 closed down by over 35 points on Friday, but is still looking very strong. Only a break of 5013 will change the trend of this index, and a close below the 20 day average at 5035 will be the first sign of weakness, until then the target is still 5230.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 28/06/2005

The S&P500 ended the session almost unchanged. The trend did however change to down as suspected, and the target is now 1179. The trend will only change with a break of the recent high at 1220.

The Nasdaq 100 continued it's fall and achieved the target of 1500. The target now is 1464, and only a break of 1551 will change this trend.

The FTSE 100 is the only index I cover that is still not in a downtrend. Technically only a break of 5013 will change the trend. However I think that given the state of the US indices, a break of 5035 will be a reason to close out of all long positions at least. Until then the target is 5120.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 29/06/2005

Just as I announce the beginning of a short term downtrend in the S&P500 it goes and closes over 10 points up! It did however test the 20 day average almost exactly and fell back from there. The trend is still most definitely down and only a break of the 1220 level will change this. The target remains at 1179.

The Nasdaq 100 traded higher by just under 15 points, but did fail to close above it's 200 day average. The trend in the short term is down, as it is in the medium term. The short term trend will change at 1551 whilst the medium term trend will change at 1570. The target is 1430.

The FTSE 100 showed further strength today and closed on it's highs up almost 50 points. The index is in a definite uptrend and a break of 5035 level will be the first real sign of weakness. The trend will not change until we break 5013.

 

[roguetrader]

The trend did however change to down as suspected, and the target is now 1179. The trend will only change with a break of the recent high at 1220.

Hi Effkay, I'm curious as to how you are defining trend changes. Could you perhaps elaborate with the SPX.

 

[JillyB]

Hi Effkay

Any thoughts on the Dow recently?

 

[danfreek]

I would also be interested in how you define your trend, the SPX seems to be in a natural reaction to me at the moment. I can see why a move above 1220 would indicate higher prices to you, and your target of 1179 looks like a 50% fib retracement to me (without measuring it). I think that we probably only differ in our definition of trend, how do you separate a reaction or rally from the trend?

 

[Effkay]

Sorry for the delayed responses guys.

Methodology: A mixture of the following, point and figure (primary), support and resistance levels (secondary), moving averages and optimised stop losses. Therefore if we get a break of certain levels, we have a change of trend.

Dow: Short term, trend is down, target 10070. Change of trend at 10647. (I will do a fuller commentary in the proper commentary at the end of the day).

Thanks for all the support guys.

PM me if you want specifics.

 

[roguetrader]

Sorry for the delayed responses guys.

Methodology: A mixture of the following, point and figure (primary), support and resistance levels (secondary), moving averages and optimised stop losses. Therefore if we get a break of certain levels, we have a change of trend.

Dow: Short term, trend is down, target 10070. Change of trend at 10647. (I will do a fuller commentary in the proper commentary at the end of the day).

Thanks for all the support guys.

PM me if you want specifics.

No worries Effkay, thanx for the reply, different methodology, I understand now.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 30/06/2005

The S&P500 traded almost flat in this session, and we couldn't close above the 20 day average any perhaps more importantly the 1200 level. The index remains in a downtrend, and 1179 is the target. The trend will not change until we break the 1220 level.

The Nasdaq 100 traded lower by just under 5 points and below it's 200 day average. The index is still in a strong downtrend and the target is at 1430. A break of 1551 will change the trend of this index.

I will make a mention of the Dow today as it is one of the reasons I am of the opinion that we are in a downtrend. The Nasdaq 100 has been in a downtrend for some time now, the S&P500 however has not been so clear. Therefore I look to the Dow to give me some direction. The Dow entered a downtrend with a strong break of the 10443 level and set 10070 as the target, this trend will only reverse with a break of the 10647 level. Since the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow are both now in a downtrend I would suggest that the S&P500 is also in a downtrend even though the signals may not be so clear.

The FTSE 100 traded higher once again, and stopped just short of setting a new high, and of the target at 5120. Suggestions are that we may top here. The trend however is up and will not change until we break through 5036. The target is 5120.

There will be no update or emails tomorrow as I am away.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Just got a quick chance to take a look at the markets. I think that the call of a downtrend is a fair one considering today's action!! A ful update over the weekend.

Thanks