Free Commentary on indices

[Effkay]

From my site:

Commentary for 21/10/2005
The S&P500 reversed all it's gains from the previous session, and ended lower by just under 18 points. The trend here is looking a little by shaky, as I would have liked to see some strength in this session. Technically the trend is still up, and only a break of 1168 will change this. The target remains at 1235.

The Nasdaq 100 gave up around 14 points, but still remains within an uptrend. The target here is 1618, and a break of 1515 is needed to reverse the trend.

The FTSE 100 spent most of the day in positive territory, but then ended the session marginally lower. The result is that we have a doji pattern showing some indecision at this point in the trend. Again I would not be surprised to see an up move in the coming session, but it has to be said that the trend is still down, and until we break 5304, the target will remain at 5090.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 24/10/2005

The S&P500 ended the session on Friday looking a bit undecided and therefore making a doji pattern. This index is technically in an uptrend, but this looks a bit doubtful at the moment. The target is 1235. If we break below 1170 in the coming sessions, the trend will be reversed.

The Nasdaq 100 closed higher on Friday when compared to Thursday's close, but actually traded lower during the session due to the gap up at the beginning of the session. Again this index is in an uptrend, with a target of 1618. A break of 1526 will change the trend at this stage.

The FTSE 100 ended lower by 22 points on Friday, and is in a definite downtrend. Although it is at a 50% Fibonacci target (See chart on my site), therefore I would not be surprised to see a bounce at this stage. The target however remains at 5090, with a break of 5304 needed to reverse the trend.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 25/10/2005

The S&P500 ended the session higher by almost 20 points, stopping just short of the all important 1200 level. In doing so the index showed itself to be in an uptrend, and now has 1235 as a realistic target. The trend will change with a break of 1170.

The Nasdaq 100 ended the session higher by over 25 points, and has a target of 1618. A break of the 1600 level will show real strength and hence will remove any doubt about the uptrend. The trend will change with a break of 1526.

The FTSE 100 ended higher by over 65 points, and bounced as I suggested in my previous commentary. The trend however is still down, and I would not be bullish until we break 5304 at this stage. The target is still 5090, but I would not be surprised to see an upmove over the next few sessions.

Thanks

P.s. Joe Ross has supplied us with some articles which are now up on the site.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 26/10/2005

The S&P500 ended the session lower by almost 3 points. The trend is still up and the target is 1235, although the index does seem to be struggling with the 1200 level, which also happens to be a Fibonacci resistance level. For the moment the trend will only change with a break of the 1170 level.

The Nasdaq 100 ended the session lower by almost 5 points, and created an inside day within an uptrend. The target remains at 1618, and only a break of 1526 will change the trend for now.

The FTSE 100 continued downward in this session, and ended lower by over 25 points. The target once again is 5090, however a break of this session's high at 5223 will change the trend.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 27/10/2005

The S&P500 ended the session lower by over 5 points, but not before making a higher high. The index is still very much in an uptrend with a target of 1235. The trend will only change if we break through the 1170 level.

The Nasdaq 100 also ended lower, ending the session lower by over 10 points. This index too made a higher high, and therefore made a special type of key reversal pattern, which if confirmed in the coming session may suggest that we have seen a minor top. The trend however is still up, and the target of 1618 remains. The trend will only change if we break through 1526.

The FTSE 100 broke through the 5223 level, and therefore kicked off a new uptrend. The target now is 5300, and until we break below 5130, this will remain the case.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 28/10/2005

The S&P500 corrected heavily in this session, closing down by over 12 points. The index may have made a short term top, and I would like to see the high at 1204 taken out before we resume the uptrend. The trend is still technically up with a target of 1235, and until we break 1170 this will remain the case.

The Nasdaq 100 also fell sharply in this session, as I suggested may be the case in my previous commentary. Once again the trend is still technically up and the target is 1618. Until we break 1526, this will remain the case.

The FTSE 100 also fell in this session, and put my call of an uptrend into doubt. The trend is still up, and until we break 5130, this will remain so. The target is still 5300.

Thanks

 

[twiggytwo]

Any Dow analysis ?

Commentary for 28/10/2005

The S&P500 corrected heavily in this session, closing down by over 12 points. The index may have made a short term top, and I would like to see the high at 1204 taken out before we resume the uptrend. The trend is still technically up with a target of 1235, and until we break 1170 this will remain the case.

The Nasdaq 100 also fell sharply in this session, as I suggested may be the case in my previous commentary. Once again the trend is still technically up and the target is 1618. Until we break 1526, this will remain the case.

The FTSE 100 also fell in this session, and put my call of an uptrend into doubt. The trend is still up, and until we break 5130, this will remain so. The target is still 5300.

Thanks

Hi Effkay , any thoughts on the Dow ?
I still see it Ranging I have 10,216 support to 10,453 resistance
ragards

 

[Effkay]

I see the Dow in an uptrend at this stage with a target of 10610, we would need to see a convincing break of the 10200 level before the trend changes.
I can see why you may be of the opinion that we are ranging, but there are clear higher highs and higher lows that throw the analysis of a range into turmoil. Hope this helps

Commentary for 31/10/2005

The S&P500 ended Friday's session higher by almost 20 points, still struggling with the 1200 level. The index is technically in an uptrend, I would however like to see a break of the 1205 level before I am convinced of this. Only a break of the 1170 level will change the trend.

The Nasdaq 100 also ended the session higher, and is therefore still in an uptrend. The target remains at 1618, and until we break the 1538 level this will remain the case.

The FTSE 100 also ended higher on Friday, by over 30 points. This index is also in an uptrend, and until we break through the 5130 level, the target will remain at 5300.

REMEMBER TO DOWNLOAD YOUR OWN TRADINGLOGICALLY TOOLBAR!

Thanks

 

[rav700]

I see the Dow in an uptrend at this stage with a target of 10610, we would need to see a convincing break of the 10200 level before the trend changes.
I can see why you may be of the opinion that we are ranging, but there are clear higher highs and higher lows that throw the analysis of a range into turmoil. Hope this helps

Commentary for 31/10/2005

The S&P500 ended Friday's session higher by almost 20 points, still struggling with the 1200 level. The index is technically in an uptrend, I would however like to see a break of the 1205 level before I am convinced of this. Only a break of the 1170 level will change the trend.

The Nasdaq 100 also ended the session higher, and is therefore still in an uptrend. The target remains at 1618, and until we break the 1538 level this will remain the case.

The FTSE 100 also ended higher on Friday, by over 30 points. This index is also in an uptrend, and until we break through the 5130 level, the target will remain at 5300.

REMEMBER TO DOWNLOAD YOUR OWN TRADINGLOGICALLY TOOLBAR!

Thanks

My views on the dow are still bearish this week..
Also this week we have the fomc....do you think we will experiance a drop on the day as we have always had in the last 9 months....

 

[twiggytwo]

dow reply

I see the Dow in an uptrend at this stage with a target of 10610, we would need to see a convincing break of the 10200 level before the trend changes.
I can see why you may be of the opinion that we are ranging, but there are clear higher highs and higher lows that throw the analysis of a range into turmoil. Hope this helps

Commentary for 31/10/2005

The S&P500 ended Friday's session higher by almost 20 points, still struggling with the 1200 level. The index is technically in an uptrend, I would however like to see a break of the 1205 level before I am convinced of this. Only a break of the 1170 level will change the trend.

The Nasdaq 100 also ended the session higher, and is therefore still in an uptrend. The target remains at 1618, and until we break the 1538 level this will remain the case.

The FTSE 100 also ended higher on Friday, by over 30 points. This index is also in an uptrend, and until we break through the 5130 level, the target will remain at 5300.

REMEMBER TO DOWNLOAD YOUR OWN TRADINGLOGICALLY TOOLBAR!

Thanks

Thanks for your thoughts on the Dow Effkay,
the next few days will tell us I'm sure, have a look at August 10th 11th 12th 15th & 16th this year ( 2005 ) as this may be repeated over the next few days if the Dow cannot break out upwards towards the 10,633 area.
just my thoughts , Best Regards

 

[Effkay]

Hi guys,

I think that one of the most important things to remember at this time of year, is that it is the strongest seasonal pattern of the year, year on year from the last week of october, we have kicked off a rally. I can't see why this year should be different, especially with the patterns we are seeing, therefore unless we see some real bearish action, I'm bullish.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Hi everyone,

As I was saying yesterday, I expect the dow to move upwards, which was proved to be right. The market is looking very storng and it's a case of short it at your own risk!

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Here is the latest commentary from my site:

Commentary for 01/11/2005

The S&P500 showed itself to be in an uptrend, and ended the session higher by over 8 points, breaking the 1205 level, and therefore making 1235 a realistic target once again. The trend will only change now with a break of 1178.

The Nasdaq 100 ended the session higher by over 22 points. This index too is in an uptrend with 1618 as a real target. The trend will only change with a break of 1526.

The FTSE 100 put in a spectacular performance, firstly gapping up and then ending over 100 points higher than Friday's close! This index is in a sure uptrend and met my target of 5300 comfortably. The target is now at 5400, and unless we break 5130, it will remain so.

Thanks

 

[ukhero]

To be honest, I'm a bit nervous about the Fed's decision tomorrow. I don't know which way the DOW's going to go so I'll stay out of that market and wait for a clearer day.

UK

 

[Effkay]

That's fair enough UKhero, I try to stay away from fundamentals/news, and therefore let price action dictate my move.

 

[rav700]

To be honest, I'm a bit nervous about the Fed's decision tomorrow. I don't know which way the DOW's going to go so I'll stay out of that market and wait for a clearer day.

UK

I totally agree with you as always..
My analysis for the last 8 fed meeting says that the dow will fall.....
My prediction for the dow is that it will fall about 100 point or more.....
Let see
Best of luck to all of you
Happy trading

 

[Effkay]

Hi everyone,

Largely uneventful in the US today, no 100 point declines, I guess we'll have to see what happens tomorrow, as usual the commentary is on my site.

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 03/11/2005

The S&P500 traded higher in this session, closing 12 points higher, this index is in a certain uptrend, and so this does not come as a surprise. The index should reach the 1235 target sooner rather than later. The trend however will only change if we break 1178.

The Nasdaq 100 also displayed strength, and closed higher by over 20 points, it did not however manage to break the 1600 level, which should be taken out in the coming sessions for 1618 to be a real target. The trend will only change if we break 1538.

The FTSE 100 pushed up by over 14 points in this session, and it seems that this index is staying strong for the moment. The trend has been up since we broke 5223, and therefore any positions taken at that point are in considerable profit. The trend will only change if we break 5157, but this is likely to change in the coming sessions. The target remains at 5400.

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Commentary for 07/11/2005

The S&P500 ended the session marginally higher on Friday, creating a doji pattern. This index is still in an uptrend although we may see some correction for the coming sessions. The target remains at 1235, and the trend will only change if we break 1178.

The Nasdaq came very closed to the 1635 target on Friday, ending the day higher by over 8 points. The target remains at 1635, and until we break 1538, this will remain the case.

The FTSE 100 ended the session lower by over 8 points after making a higher high. The trend is still up although the index may correct over the next couple of sessions. The target remains at 5400 and until we break 5157, this will remain the case.

REMEMBER TO DOWNLOAD YOUR OWN TRADINGLOGICALLY TOOLBAR!

Thanks

 

[Effkay]

Hi everyone,

Moved over to a new thread here