Dow 2007

[2468steve]

Limit filled, +20 paper pips for the day.

well done LL...appear to be making steady progress....enjoy your weekend...


cheers

 

[Atilla]

That was my first paper trade for the day, and first trade since 3pm. Slow market. I did see an opportunity there though. I hope I have a better week next week. Monday started off so well....

Hi LL,

I don't know whether it's just me but the impression I get with your paper trades and your written text is that you are so much more calmer and objective in your paper trades. Sort of looking at the trade from outside your self.

I'm not sure if it's just my impression but with live trades you are so much more personally involved with the trade as it's part of your heart and soul.

I might be talking rubbish here but as I say it's an impression received from your written text about your trades. Call it karma if you like.

Well done and see you guys all next week.


Leaving a short over the weekend looks really tempting on my hourly charts.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Hi LL,

I don't know whether it's just me but the impression I get with your paper trades and your written text is that you are so much more calmer and objective in your paper trades. Sort of looking at the trade from outside your self.

I'm not sure if it's just my impression but with live trades you are so much more personally involved with the trade as it's part of your heart and soul.

I might be talking rubbish here but as I say it's an impression received from your written text about your trades. Call it karma if you like.

Well done and see you guys all next week.


Leaving a short over the weekend looks really tempting on my hourly charts.

You are spot on with the differences between live trading and paper trading for me.

The plan for the future: paper trades only for the strategy, real trades on news releases (for example I'd have done well from todays CPI data had it not been for an order input error).

Careful about shorts over the weekend. Slowing inflation is quite bullish, and you identified a reversal yourself. We're not quite at the highs, so I would leave it if I were you.

 

[firewalker99]

i repeat again, again

everything will be all over the place today, with extreme volatility 'specially towards the end.

jon

I must have missed something, but today was boring as hell
no volatility whatsoever... quadruple witching day you say?

Only made +10 on dow today although my hesitation to short 13810 cost me dearly. That was the trade to have really imho.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Short term plan: paper trading and news

I must have missed something, but today was boring as hell
no volatility whatsoever... quadruple witching day you say?

Only made +10 on dow today although my hesitation to short 13810 cost me dearly. That was the trade to have really imho.

Yes, selling the high of day is really the only trade to have, witching or not! :cheesy:

I made 20 paper pips and lost 7 real pips (plus 10 spread).

Here is what I am going to do for the next three weeks.

1. Paper trade 15 days of Dow, backtest 100 trades, post my stats live and the summary at the end
2. Spreadbet with real money on news announcements, looking to build up my existing £50 balance into something usable

I don't think it prudent to use more of my actual capital for trading, so I intend executing a few low risk news spreadbets on major announcements affecting the Dow. I tried to do this today, and lost 23 pips and the potential to make around 80 due to an order input error (sell instead of buy). However, I think it may be realistic to build a bankroll trading news announcements premarket in the next few weeks.

My system will be tested further on paper, and of course backtested. In three weeks I want to have a high win ratio and positive expectancy with a 2:1 reward to risk. I will have confidence in the system, and will also have good backtesting results.

With this in place, I will return to normal Dow trading, with tight money management and hopefully good discipline.

For those of you who are interested, my paper trading record so far for this week is:

Trades: 5
Winners: 4
Win %: 80
Average Win: 25
Average Loss: 10
Average Trades / Day: 2.5
Win:Loss: 2.5:1

This is using the Tick divergence and PV system recently posted in my journal. I think you will all agree that these are better results than my live trading. However, I just require the confidence in my system through paper trading in order to achieve flawless executions.

Have a good weekend all.

 

[brutusdog]

trying to post a chart

my chart of dow on friday, just a test to see if i can post charts a bit better than in the past.

 

[Atilla]

my chart of dow on friday, just a test to see if i can post charts a bit better than in the past.

Interesting article on rising Bond Yields...

Lot of dull grey area in this article. Key comment for me is the lack of foreign appetite for US gov bonds.

This was to be expected given the value of the dollar and US budget and BofP defecits 7%+ of GDP.

Also, the reason why the article is confused between inflation and growth and investors not knowing which way to turn is the key word Stagflation. Some people are really in denial about it all.

As they say in hollywood movies. You can run but you can't hide.

I wonder whether I should give up writing to Readers Digest and instead contribute to the Economist? :cheesy:

 

[Dinos]

tafita

+50, was overnight long, and limit order sell, so no real exit strategy

+20, short taken 3.17 US time, reason for entering position. MA3 change brought me to alert, 13660, - MA3 & EMA 8 crossover MA10, MACD histo (small short divergence) & MACD crossover, full stochastics above 90, reversed and trended downwards paralell with target line. Didn't close position when stochastic when sub 20 as there was still momentum in the MACD.

Exit sign, MA3 alert, reversal, double bottom sub 10 full stochastic at same point macd Histo confirming possible reversal, so took 20 points and exited. 20 points is my daily target, anything extra is a bonus, so quite happy to bag the points.

Is that OK?

 

[Dinos]

Short Gold 658

 

[Pat494]

I wonder whether I should give up writing to Readers Digest and instead contribute to the Economist? :cheesy:

Never heard of a rich economist ! ( strange when you think about it ) but you could be the first LOL

 

[Hook Shot]

Never heard of a rich economist ! ( strange when you think about it ) but you could be the first LOL

Come on now there are loads of rich economists out there...... :cheesy:
I can think of Gavin Davies & Jim O'Neill for starters (both Goldman.. although Davies has left now).

Anyone noticed the reversal in the vix friday FWIW ??

 

[firewalker99]

I don't think it prudent to use more of my actual capital for trading, so I intend executing a few low risk news spreadbets on major announcements affecting the Dow. I tried to do this today, and lost 23 pips and the potential to make around 80 due to an order input error (sell instead of buy). However, I think it may be realistic to build a bankroll trading news announcements premarket in the next few weeks.

Why do you think news announcements are a low risk bet? And how do you plan on trading them (before the news? on the news, after the first couple of minutes)? What is your strategy based on and how will you react on slippage? Have you thought about the potential loss of a news related trade? Remember amateurs evaluate profit potential, professionals analyze risk.

 

[Pat494]

Come on now there are loads of rich economists out there...... :cheesy:
I can think of Gavin Davies & Jim O'Neill for starters (both Goldman.. although Davies has left now).

?

Yes well - cant say I've heard of Gavin or Jim but I guess they are rich if you say so, not forgetting of course Joe Bloggs from Sucks and Goldbum

 

[firewalker99]

long 13755 fut

 

[tricks]

long 13755 fut

short 13749 fut

 

[Atilla]

Never heard of a rich economist ! ( strange when you think about it ) but you could be the first LOL

I am one such rich economist. :!:

 

[watson]

Managed to get 13,632 to 13,612 on the basis of a complex H&S top that seemed to have formed, particularly evident on the 10 minute. Maybe exited a bit too early (I'm an expert at cutting profits remember ), as longer timeframes seem to suggest a nice double-top formation...

 

[watson]

Yes well - cant say I've heard of Gavin or Jim but I guess they are rich if you say so, not forgetting of course Joe Bloggs from Sucks and Goldbum

Maybe I should add Robert Merton and Myron Scholes... before the LTCM crash and burn!

 

[firewalker99]

short 13749 fut

yes good short, I stopped & reversed at 45

 

[Dinos]

Afternoon all, hope you all doing well