It's just a pattern, maybe you should take a look. It just makes my view bearish, so i'm looking to sell. I want to make my stop as cheap as possible, so i'm looking to sell a retracement. I've sold it and now i'm only going to stop myself out if it closes above the highs 1236. The only thing that makes me nervous is that the ftse closed above.
It's just a pattern, maybe you should take a look. It just makes my view bearish, so i'm looking to sell. I want to make my stop as cheap as possible, so i'm looking to sell a retracement. I've sold it and now i'm only going to stop myself out if it closes above the highs 1236. The only thing that makes me nervous is that the ftse closed above.
wackypete2
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APPLE stock is nose-diving after hours on missed financials. If it stays down it could be a drag on the major indices tomorrow.
Peter
I think it hit the futures market. Although it missed estimates, it's still good. It might be a good buy tomorrow.
wallstreetwarrior87
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If your short, and its part of your plan thats cool, just wondering what sort of levels you are targeting for this short?
Stops are only cheap if on average they dont get hit. If you are targeting new lows from here (on a daily chart) and you are going to keep your stop at 1236, then its highly likely you will get stopped as the market needs to mover higher first (from a swing POV)
If the pattern you describe was supposed to follow through to the downside today but did not, does that mean the pattern is no longer valid? If it is no longer valid, and you still shorted, is this trade now based on an opinion rather than fact?
Again, this all depends on your target area, and the likelyhood of it getting there.
Usually the next day is a down day. But it wasn't so there's a good chance i'll get stopped out? I'm not sure...I'm sticking to the plan. Until i see a close above i think i'll stay short.
robster970
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I'm quite intrigued by this dialogue for a couple of reasons and would like to tease out a couple of things that I might learn from/be useful:
a) I'm with Brettus on this swing down. However I've not taken a position yet because I have a final filter/confirmation that's not been triggered yet. I get in a bit later as a result but it repays in the Win% for me. For the record it's a time filter with another directional filter.
b) Plan aside, I can see a number of things that come from discretionary parts of cerebral cortex that tell me this is probably not a good bet. These are (i) even though a lower high formed yesterday and it failed to breach 1235 it got very close, (ii) it also failed to make a lower low of any note telling me buyers are still pretty active and finally (iii) the buying into the RTH close was strong, especially keeping it above 1220. Discretionary me is telling there is continued accumulation going on with people distributing heavily between 1220-1235.
So the intraday discretionary 'me' can see this is not a good set-up (for me) but the plan I follow for swing trading tells me this is 80% there now.
Two questions then:
@Brettus - do you ever apply any discretion to your trade set-ups?
@WSW - I can tell you're discretionary but what do you know on either a technical/fundamental/mash-up level that leads you to the swing not starting?
a) I'm with Brettus on this swing down. However I've not taken a position yet because I have a final filter/confirmation that's not been triggered yet. I get in a bit later as a result but it repays in the Win% for me. For the record it's a time filter with another directional filter.
b) Plan aside, I can see a number of things that come from discretionary parts of cerebral cortex that tell me this is probably not a good bet. These are (i) even though a lower high formed yesterday and it failed to breach 1235 it got very close, (ii) it also failed to make a lower low of any note telling me buyers are still pretty active and finally (iii) the buying into the RTH close was strong, especially keeping it above 1220. Discretionary me is telling there is continued accumulation going on with people distributing heavily between 1220-1235.
So the intraday discretionary 'me' can see this is not a good set-up (for me) but the plan I follow for swing trading tells me this is 80% there now.
Two questions then:
@Brettus - do you ever apply any discretion to your trade set-ups?
@WSW - I can tell you're discretionary but what do you know on either a technical/fundamental/mash-up level that leads you to the swing not starting?
MajorDutch
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wallstreetwarrior87
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Ok, I was hoping that maybe Brutus would give his target area for the short as it would make understanding his trade easier. If it is just a touch of yesterdays low, then yes thats possible. If its a swing low to the 4th Oct then this is unlikely to play out. What I was trying to fathom out was what sort of target the set up normally gives. ie when we dont close above the high, where does price tend to go?
All I see is opinion based calls rather than anything meaningful. On another thread a well known poster has been trying to short today, as he did a few days ago, and stopped out both times. Im not saying anything against his calls, but sometimes there is more too it that reading the economic news and adding in a few technical support levels, and well know patterns. Thats what happened here, the markets are not ready to drop, and people are trying to short at a very dangerous time.
Yes I am discretionary, and I believe this helps me back away from patterns and candle formations. We discussed the issue about the apparent rally on "something" a few days ago. I asked if indeed there had even been a rally? Again your definition will be different to mine, and thats what makes the market what it is.
Have you seen the drawing that MajorDutch posted from FF? Have you ever seen a chart like that? There is so much wrong with it, but no one notices, and thats exactly what the market does to us all the time. We see what we want to see. That is why it is wise to stay well away from patterns, unless you really know what is going on.
Someone mentioned Apple's missed estimates; what will be your call on the market if we buy up of this data?
Best wait for now, but each to their own.
wackypete2
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I was just putting some info out there, not really making a call. I don't trade much US stocks anymore, just enough to keep my broker happy. In any case the only play I would have made with that Apple news is buying Apple if it hit the the 390-392 area this morning, or maybe shorting the QQQ at or near the open for a quick hit if it presented.
Peter
wackypete2
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Brettus' short looking good so far. 
It's just a question of how much of those gains will you risk for potentially more gains.
Peter
It's just a question of how much of those gains will you risk for potentially more gains.
Peter
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wallstreetwarrior87
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Brettus' short looking good so far.
It's just a question of how of those gains will you risk for potentially more gains.
Peter
Once again; It all comes down to the target. It is very possible we make the lows from 2 days ago, but not much more than that.
Must always have a target in mind before entering, but you dont need to be rigid in that target if the market shows no sign of slowing down.
Personally I would be looking for 1204/05 on the S&P cash levels and say thank you, and see if the market moves up from there.
I hope Brutus makes good points from this trade, but I was pointing out that it has nothing to do with the fact that the market didnt close above the high in the prior session. As everyone can see, yesterday we closed at the high, and look whats happened today
Your call on the QQQ short would have been my preference today, but only for a 4/5 hour trade. Best not to get greedy.
robster970
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I would have been looking for about 30pts which from 1220 area takes us to the 1190 support area on the cash index. Be interesting to see how this one pans out. I know what you mean though - horses for courses and all that.
robster970
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I really noticed the responsive buying that occurred when price tried to push down below 1200 cash level yesterday (probably off the back of the news at 14:05 that Germany didn't want to play ball at the weekend). I can't see this going down much further now unless something big occurs to change value. There is loads of initiative selling going on but it's being met with equal amounts of responsive buying. Interesting (well at least for me).
wallstreetwarrior87
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Very interesting indeed!
The thing is could these levels have been known 3 days ago? When others saw engulfing candles, failure to close above highs etc?
I was looking around the 1204 area...slightly over shot that, but that can happen.
News can be used as an excuse as to why we did what we did, but its happened now.
My point/issue all along was the target that people were looking for. Too optimistic at this point, and if one doesnt understand whats going on, they are going to give silly points away, as they let the price move back to their stop, which more than likely would have been moved to break even now. Thus not getting anything from the trade.
It would be interesting to find out what Brutus did in the end?
robster970
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Possibly. I can see that the 1190 cash area was a solid support level both from chart and on profile.
1200-1205 area on cash? Well apart from the psychology of 1200, I can see that there was a lot of activity traded on profile between 1196 and 1200 on ES in the last month (add 4.5pts for cash) so I wouldn't be suprised to see rotation around this value area.
Initiative selling had a good go over the last 2 days to move value down from there but was met with strong buying. Could it have broken lower to push towards the 1170 (cash) area? Maybe but the sellers gave in
If you mean by 'Whats going on' as news driving big money then I can see what you mean. The big money is still supporting the market by the looks of it and nothing has changed economically speaking IMO.
Personally, this is probably the best dialogue I've had on here for some time. It's made me think a little harder about things and that for me is always beneficial. As for where I would have taken a profit if I had gone short? Probably yesterday tbh after the strong rejection of lower value - maybe come out at the close around 1213 cash and taken 10pts off the table rather than gunning for a re-test of 1190 cash.
As I said in an earlier post, my swing trading has a final time/confirmation filter - it's basically looking for an Open-Test-Drive situation where the drive is in the direction of the new swing. It confirms intent to move value out of the current range. So this time, no trade for me.
wallstreetwarrior87
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Well robster, thinking is always good
If you are thinking harder then good for you, this is how one progresses. Now the market has swung up again and swooped all the stops that I was suggesting would be the play. Guess what; its still not time to short!
Yes it is nice to have a good dialogue, because there is so much more to this than patterns and set ups (hopefully you can see this now?)
No disrespect to anyone, but there is no use in posting set ups if one has no idea how the market will move and why.
People are posting charts but not really stating what the play is?
Where are the targets, stops, etc
Geofract posted a 4H Cable chart with an "ascending triangle":
Ok then, so whats the call? What does it mean?
You see where Im coming from?
Im not really a serial poster, but if I can add a bit of value to a thread then all good.
Good luck with your development Robster:smart:
Geofract
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Continuation pattern in theory - no call though.
robster970
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OK, you're on. Next time I post a chart up which will likely be a swing for ES/S&P Cash, I'll give a synopsis of the trade too.
robster970
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BTW, I have one question for you WSW:
Under what circumstances do you think it will be time to short?
I am asking because I would like to understand from a structural PoV why you have this opinion.
Under what circumstances do you think it will be time to short?
I am asking because I would like to understand from a structural PoV why you have this opinion.
