Positioning for the greek vote ?

[bbmac]

So tomorrow begins the Greek parliament's vote (s) for the Eu imposed austerity plan that is a condition of it's bailout - you know the one - where Greece is lent more money to pay the loans it cannot repay because it's economy is shrinking . I wonder what the further austerity measures will do to the greek economy and their future ability to repay the debts? Doh !! A no brainer really ! These type of decisions really do put a lie to the idea that our elected officials are smarter than us don't they ?

Anyways the fundamentals aside, is anyone positioned/positioning ahead of the vote ? Some talk of monies flowing out of gold into eur ahead of the expected Yes vote (s.) (It should be tight !)

Looking at eurusd techs, Daily t/f is in some consolidation off the 4937 Hi with a fractal HL at Monday's Lo at the ascending trend line and top half of a previous swing lo zone on this daily t/f, this following 2 x LH and a L that created said previous swing Lo zone.

Looking to the downside that previous swing lo zone runs down to 4074 and below here a previous daily/weekly swing lo zone that runs down to 3969 area. Unbreeched fibs of the 1869, 2585 and 2860 weekly swings to the 4937 recent hi are below here.

Could be a big couple of days in all markets particularly if the vote (s) are NO with risk apetite drying up. With so many competing fundamental factors though affecting both the Eu and U.s ecnomies, volatility should be high.

G/L

 

[DashRiprock]

I think anyone trades this might as well flip a coin. There is no edge to be had in guessing the result of the vote, nor what the reaction to it will be. The Euro has "pain" written all over it for everyone, regardless of long or short.

If you held a gun to my head I would say Long, but being flat is the only sensible thing to do here.

 

[bbmac]

Yeh I tend to agree although could be some good opps in immediate aftermath 'knee-jerk reaction +.

Will it be 'Forever and Ever' or a Greek Tragedy ? Where's Demis Rousos when you need him !

Time will tell

G/L

 

[wackypete2]

I think anyone trades this might as well flip a coin. There is no edge to be had in guessing the result of the vote, nor what the reaction to it will be. The Euro has "pain" written all over it for everyone, regardless of long or short.

If you held a gun to my head I would say Long, but being flat is the only sensible thing to do here.

Agreed, very risky either way, except with a gun to my head I think I might go short eurusd. It has gone up quite a bit pre vote. Very risky for those who bought. Could be a sell the news event no matter what the news is.

Also agree with bbmac, I'll be looking for short term opportunities in the aftermath, very similar to aftermath on NFP days. Patience, discipline, and feeling no need to have to trade if I don't see anything.

Peter

 

[counter_violent]

So tomorrow begins the Greek parliament's vote (s) for the Eu imposed austerity plan that is a condition of it's bailout - you know the one - where Greece is lent more money to pay the loans it cannot repay because it's economy is shrinking . I wonder what the further austerity measures will do to the greek economy and their future ability to repay the debts? Doh !! A no brainer really ! These type of decisions really do put a lie to the idea that our elected officials are smarter than us don't they ?

"Smarter officials" now theres a revolutionary idea. Perhaps the "elected officials" should be ordered only to appoint suitably qualified and experienced people to head up and run govt departments and the country as a whole. So reduce the number of MP's altogether, they would just be the public interface. Also make the MP's spend half their working week in their respective constituency, so they don't lose touch with the real issues people face every day.

Govt is directly responsible for the failure of the banks to self regulate and keep their houses in order, even though govt would like to use the excuse that the credit agencies and regulatory authorities failed. The failures are the very one's (allegedly) running the country.

 

[wackypete2]

"Smarter officials" now theres a revolutionary idea. Perhaps the "elected officials" should be ordered only to appoint suitably qualified and experienced people to head up and run govt departments and the country as a whole. So reduce the number of MP's altogether, they would just be the public interface. Also make the MP's spend half their working week in their respective constituency, so they don't lose touch with the real issues people face every day.

Govt is directly responsible for the failure of the banks to self regulate and keep their houses in order, even though govt would like to use the excuse that the credit agencies and regulatory authorities failed. The failures are the very one's (allegedly) running the country.

hehe...you just invited all the conspiracy theorists to join in.

Peter

 

[BeginnerJoe]

The failures are the very one's (allegedly) running the country.

Since the regular joe's voted them there. It's neither the govs' nor the banks' who are at fault. Regular joe's deserve all that's coming to them.

 

[squall321]

Govt is directly responsible for the failure of the banks to self regulate

that doesn't make any sense

 

[wackypete2]

Since the regular joe's voted them there. It's neither the govs' nor the banks' who are at fault. Regular joe's deserve all that's coming to them.

This has been my stance for years concerning the USA, but applies to most countries with elections.

Peter

 

[counter_violent]

that doesn't make any sense

What ! Who exactly is supposed to keep big business in check then ? As a direct result of govt failure to monitor and take action to keep some sort of balance, we the bloody tax payers, are now funding all their (govt) past incompetence.

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Here's a novel idea. How about we have a free market system and the thing will regulate itself?

Government interference has countless unintended consequences. This is why the whole shambles will eventually come crashing down. At this time the building is shaking and plaster is falling off here and there, but the worst is yet to come.

 

[counter_violent]

Here's a novel idea. How about we have a free market system and the thing will regulate itself?

Government interference has countless unintended consequences. This is why the whole shambles will eventually come crashing down. At this time the building is shaking and plaster is falling off here and there, but the worst is yet to come.

Couldn't agree more, however, the sheep still need shepherding. It would be too much to ask for them to think for themselves

 

[bedsit]

Is the vote at 22:00 BST?

 

[squall321]

What ! Who exactly is supposed to keep big business in check then ? As a direct result of govt failure to monitor and take action to keep some sort of balance, we the bloody tax payers, are now funding all their (govt) past incompetence.

well either, they failed to regulate, or the banks failed to self regulate. you can't pass the blame for something failing to self regulate.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

the sheep still need shepherding.

I say throw the sheep to the wolves until the sheep finally evolve to have a capacity for self preservation. It's not efficient for the sheep to spend 90%+ of it's energy (aka tax slaughter and fleecing) to feed and cloth the Shepard.

 

[squall321]

Anyways the fundamentals aside, is anyone positioned/positioning ahead of the vote ? Some talk of monies flowing out of gold into eur ahead of the expected Yes vote (s.) (It should be tight !)

i am long eurgbp long term, not expecting a change in trend, gbp is an even bigger basketcase than the eur

 

[Black Swan]

i am long eurgbp long term, not expecting a change in trend, gbp is an even bigger basketcase than the eur

As is the dollar...strange how the Euro is supposedly the finished currency though eh, who could possibly benefit? And despite all the end of days prophecies the Euro is still strong, the USA elite must be doing their nut..The misdirection has worked, but the dollar is the real problem as it loses its reserve currency status. If that USA Gold is really gone/spent then the 5hit would really hit the fan..

The PIGS account for less than 10% of euroland gdp, this euro angst is theatre, pull back the curtains past the opening scene and it's easy to see the economic game play (and warfare) that's actually in play..

 

[counter_violent]

The PIIGS might account for only 10% of Euroland GDP but their borrowings are way out of wack.

 

[squall321]

As is the dollar...strange how the Euro is supposedly the finished currency though eh, who could possibly benefit? And despite all the end of days prophecies the Euro is still strong, the USA elite must be doing their nut..The misdirection has worked, but the dollar is the real problem as it loses its reserve currency status. If that USA Gold is really gone/spent then the 5hit would really hit the fan..

The PIGS account for less than 10% of euroland gdp, this euro angst is theatre, pull back the curtains past the opening scene and it's easy to see the economic game play (and warfare) that's actually in play..

someone from china came out the other day and said they were going to support the euro, which they have probably done for a while but are just coming public about it

- money lent which can't be repaid
- austerity measures shrinking economy

well what is that, greece, or the uk, it could be either really

 

[counter_violent]

well either, they failed to regulate, or the banks failed to self regulate. you can't pass the blame for something failing to self regulate.

Of course you can. Banks are a business and will do whatever they can to make profits. Govt is supposed to regulate everything, checks and balances. So yes we can blame the banks for their failure to self regulate but we can blame govt for the ultimate failure to oversee and regulate anything/ everything that needed it.