Brewski Trading

[brewski1984]

Out for +200 on the gold trade.

2 trades so far, 2 wins and +300 points.

Red line was where I was looking for entry, green line was the exit. I used to only bet on sup/res holding but now I quite like playing the breakouts as well depending on price action. That doesn't mean I'll take every single sup/res line one way or the other, all depends on what's happening.

 

[brewski1984]

Just gone long eur/usd from 1.2995 stop 1.2925, might be regretting this one. Pretty much the same reason as the gold trade yesterday.

 

[cablemonster]

Just gone long eur/usd from 1.2995 stop 1.2925, might be regretting this one. Pretty much the same reason as the gold trade yesterday.

you should be alright on this one I reckon. we should see 1.31 print in next few days.

 

[brewski1984]

you should be alright on this one I reckon. we should see 1.31 print in next few days.

Aiming for around 1.3150

 

[cablemonster]

Aiming for around 1.3150

sounds alright as long as you dont give it all back if it bounces at 1.31, I would expect a decent reaction thereabouts as there is a major daily fib @ round number. I prefer to enter on a high prob pullbacks of a breakout rather than the breakout. It means you miss some as price doesnt look back, when it does look back and you get some confluence they are good spots for minimising risk. good luck

PS - much better to measure trade outcomes in terms of risk R rather than pips/points. making 100 pips actually means jack as you could have risked 5000 pips to make 100 pips. If you are trading one instrument then you can get away with pips/points but multi-instrument trading needs to be risk weighted. what would be meaningful would be defining R as 1% of your account then having metrics of last 50/100/250 trades showing BBmacs list of metrics in terms of R.

Total trades:
Winning Trades @ 1R or higher:
B/e trades:
Losing trades:
Strike rate: (at b/e or better)
Total R gain from winners:
Total R loss from losers:*
Net R gain:
Expectancy per trade: R/trade
Longest consec losing run:
Longest consec winning run:*
Biggest winning trade:
Largest losing trade:
Average winning trade (not incl b/e’s):
Average losing Trade:*
Was largest losing trade more than twice av losing trade:
Was largest winning trade more than twice av winning trade:

imagine having your last 100 trades with the above metrics calculated, you would know exactly where you were at.

 

[brewski1984]

The biggest problem for me is most of the time I'm unable to screen watch all day so I have to set orders and leave them to play out. I realise this isn't the most efficient way but I have to make do with what I've got. Sometimes I do give a lot of profits back but on the flip side, some trades run a lot further than if I was sat there watching them.

 

[cablemonster]

The biggest problem for me is most of the time I'm unable to screen watch all day so I have to set orders and leave them to play out. I realise this isn't the most efficient way but I have to make do with what I've got. Sometimes I do give a lot of profits back but on the flip side, some trades run a lot further than if I was sat there watching them.

I get ya. I am normally near my screens all day and I monitor the hourly bar closes, it's sad I know but I set my phone alarm to go off at 56 minutes past the hour to update my charts and look for any opportunities. If I am out and about I set alerts in igindex to email/text me, then pull out the smartphone to action anything. the sad life of a trader lolololol

 

[brewski1984]

When I get to 50 trades I'll fill out that list. Shall I put my stake and account value instead of points gained?

 

[cablemonster]

When I get to 50 trades I'll fill out that list. Shall I put my stake and account value instead of points gained?

I keep records of the pip/point score as well as the R. The pip/point score is just for completeness really to check back on trades as I said before it is fairly meaningless although you would expect it be positive, the R metric are what is important.

example. say you enter with a 50 pip stop and you risk 1% of your account. if you get stopped out you would record this as -1.000R. if you close out with +75 pips this would be recorded as +1.500R. Your position size should be risk weighted so if you have a £10k account and risk £100 per trade then the position size on the above trade would be £2 per pip or FX lot equivalent. if you next trade was on gold with 100 pip stop loss then you need to size at £1 per pip to equalise the risk. sorry if I am teaching you to suck eggs here, just basic risk weightings.

just on the trade entry I can see why you entered @ 1.2995 however it was always likely price would reach 1.2970 Why? because the 23.6 daily fib is at that level and the would have been a lot of resting orders there = more liquidity there. As you know the market tends to flow towards liquidity hence likely to reach that level. just my observations of what plays out.

 

[brewski1984]

That would make me 3R up at the moment.

I don't follow fib levels though, too complicated for me

 

[cablemonster]

That would make me 3R up at the moment.

I don't follow fib levels though, too complicated for me

def worth looking at the major fibs only (daily upwards). if you put the daily fib of 1st Feb high and 4th April low for eurusd look at the price action around the 23.6 retrace. The 2 main pivot points since 4th April have been 1.32 RN and the 23.6 retrace. :smart:

 

[cablemonster]

That would make me 3R up at the moment.

I don't follow fib levels though, too complicated for me

that is good an encouraging but I would try and discount any elation in your mind until you have reached a sample of 25 trades minimum 50 better. Its a bit like running 2 miles for a marathon and celebrating early at the water station. It's the slow steady players who win the race. the result of any one trade should mean very little to us, just like any mile in a marathon means nothing. Society and culture of today causes us to expect and want instant results, the more a trader looks for this the more he is likely to fail.

 

[brewski1984]

Looks like I could be closing this one for a loss before the end of the day, I won't say that I'll never hold a trade over the weekend but I prefer not to.

Looks like I got out of Gold at the right time as well, not often that happens as usually I exit and sit there watching it carry on!

 

[brewski1984]

Well I've closed the eur/usd trade at 1.29983 for a very small profit, I don't want to hold this one over the weekend it never really went anywhere other than a loss today. I'll look to re-enter it on monday somewhen, hopefully at a better price.

I'll mark this down as a small win but if I re-enter the trade on monday at the same price or better, would I count it as the same trade or put it as a new trade on the spreadsheet?

 

[wackypete2]

Count it as a separate trade. Old trade is closed and booked. Many traders will often reenter at a similar price if it retraces back or after they get stopped out. Sometimes it takes 2 chances to get it right. BUT, don't enter again just because price has moved back to the same area. Make sure your original reason for taking the trade is still valid. If not, move on.

Peter

 

[wackypete2]

Well it looks like my trading account has taken a beating this week... we had an offer accepted on buying our first house so my modest savings are now a lot lower but hey, it's better than giving my money away to somebody else every month. Looks like my chump change account is now going to be my main account

Good luck in your new home

Peter

 

[brewski1984]

Thanks Pete.

Obviously I've been triggered back into this trade, it's not looking good at the moment. Also considering going long usd/jpy from around 100.00. Pretty obvious why although probably a bit stupid to be in a eur/usd and a usd/jpy at the same time.

 

[brewski1984]

Well, being the honest guy I am I just took a beating on usd/jpy -100 (1R). Was hoping for a decent bounce from 100.00 but really it was pretty stupid of me and I know it, the order I left triggered and I didn't have the stones to close it.

 

[cablemonster]

you should be alright on this one I reckon. we should see 1.31 print in next few days.

this one gave me that warm feeling inside. I only saw 27 pips of drawdown and cashed out 130 pips a mere 2.5R of initial stop.

bet you wish you held it over the weekend but rules are rules, gotta do what you think is right.:smart:

 

[brewski1984]

Obviously I've been triggered back into this trade, it's not looking good at the moment.

this one gave me that warm feeling inside. I only saw 27 pips of drawdown and cashed out 130 pips a mere 2.5R of initial stop.

bet you wish you held it over the weekend but rules are rules, gotta do what you think is right.:smart:

I'm still in it from 1.2995, holding out for 1.3150

Nice trading though, did you hold it over weekend?