B
Black Swan
Hmm, where does class clown fit in then. For that is what I am according to the gospel of St Socco !
is that a clown with class or the dunce in the class?
Black Dog trading system, a dog with fleas..?
- Thread starter Black Swan
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is that a clown with class or the dunce in the class?
Black Swan - Not disputing your original position - that out of the box psuedo Holy Grail systems look good on the vendor's highly selected charts but fail going forward.
However, what is interesting from the constructive point of view (towards developing a system that does work consistently) is why do they work for a time, and why do they not work for a time? OK, if a market is strongly uptrending, any system that keeps generating buy signals will be a winner for that period. But such conditions can be absent and yet these proprietory systems continue to perform for a certain period.
I am happy to agree that System X or Y or Z will fail when conditions change at a point in time but I think we're skimming the surface unless we can demonstrate the conditions that make a system win and the conditions that make it lose.
However, what is interesting from the constructive point of view (towards developing a system that does work consistently) is why do they work for a time, and why do they not work for a time? OK, if a market is strongly uptrending, any system that keeps generating buy signals will be a winner for that period. But such conditions can be absent and yet these proprietory systems continue to perform for a certain period.
I am happy to agree that System X or Y or Z will fail when conditions change at a point in time but I think we're skimming the surface unless we can demonstrate the conditions that make a system win and the conditions that make it lose.
TheBramble
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Putting a system vendor’s hat on for a moment….
(Somebody mentioned today a quote from “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” about the art of the con-man is to know what your mark wants and give it to him (or something like that).)
Any one genuine system or method would have you out of the market for periods of time for any given asset (or even asset class) if it was predicated on trading outright directionals. Of course, seeing a blank chart with no magic buy or sell arrows is not conducive to having the punters stump up the purchase (or subscription) fee. So, the developer/vendor will attempt to get blood out of stone and get the system to generate signals regardless of market or asset phase.
I imagine some actually start out with a potentially viable system, trade it themselves for a few weeks or even months and then decide they can market it. Not realising it worked (past tense) fine for the phase of the market they’ve just come through, which isn’t anything like the one they’re just about to go into. When it stops generating signals as it goes into a different phase, they start tinkering – and lose sight of the benefits of the original system, which is still quite valid providing they can assess what market phase it works well within, and end up with an un-tested, live, abortion of a system with the added pressure of a howling paying audience.
Which is why if you’re going down the trading system vendor route go for a one-off licence arrangement rather than a subscription…The honeymoon will be over soon enough.
(Somebody mentioned today a quote from “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” about the art of the con-man is to know what your mark wants and give it to him (or something like that).)
Any one genuine system or method would have you out of the market for periods of time for any given asset (or even asset class) if it was predicated on trading outright directionals. Of course, seeing a blank chart with no magic buy or sell arrows is not conducive to having the punters stump up the purchase (or subscription) fee. So, the developer/vendor will attempt to get blood out of stone and get the system to generate signals regardless of market or asset phase.
I imagine some actually start out with a potentially viable system, trade it themselves for a few weeks or even months and then decide they can market it. Not realising it worked (past tense) fine for the phase of the market they’ve just come through, which isn’t anything like the one they’re just about to go into. When it stops generating signals as it goes into a different phase, they start tinkering – and lose sight of the benefits of the original system, which is still quite valid providing they can assess what market phase it works well within, and end up with an un-tested, live, abortion of a system with the added pressure of a howling paying audience.
Which is why if you’re going down the trading system vendor route go for a one-off licence arrangement rather than a subscription…The honeymoon will be over soon enough.
Kinger
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I can highly reccommend tossing coins
Last summer, my random robot achieved 5 consecutive winning months, over the same period, my intelligent robot lost 3/5 months.
I can imagine the response from these muppets following trade calls from both systems. Ironically I could have probably made a quarter of a milion bucks in subscriptions from a completely random system that ended the year at break even, whilst simultaneously recieving death threats for providing calls from a system that ended up making just short of 200% for the year with less than 12% drawdown (which again is mainly due to luck rather than good judgement on my part)
As the designer of both systems I understand exactly whats happening, but I can understand how easily an external observer without any understanding could be fooled into reaching the completely wrong conclusions.
I tossed a coin over 2 girls once ... I ended up with my wife
stevespray
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Black Dog is excellent.
stevespray
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Hmm, Short and sweet.
I'm happy to stake my reputation on my statement! It is, in all seriousness, a very good system but you must stick with it and it's teachings. A lot of screen time is required and in my opinion you should look at no other charts other than the BD charts. Slowly but surely things will come together. Initially human nature draws you to the 100% mechanical nature of the signals but in time you learn to spot the better signals and filter out weaker ones.
...Then your trading will move up a few gears and regular profits come.
Hope this helps,
Steve.
As said on the original Black dog thread:
Black Dog i would say is not a full system, rather its a tool to assist trading, it is a useful tool and if used in conjunction with trading knowlege/ Support/Resistance levels etc it can help acheive some good results.
By 'filtering out' some signals that are obviously higher risk results can be improved.
Bottom line is that it is a good addition to trading if you are prepared to learn some trading skill to go with it, but people dont always want to learn.
Chris
Black Dog i would say is not a full system, rather its a tool to assist trading, it is a useful tool and if used in conjunction with trading knowlege/ Support/Resistance levels etc it can help acheive some good results.
By 'filtering out' some signals that are obviously higher risk results can be improved.
Bottom line is that it is a good addition to trading if you are prepared to learn some trading skill to go with it, but people dont always want to learn.
Chris
Kinger
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Ok, but, the trouble is these systems are sold to us as the be all and end all for your trading.
There’s a new law come out in the UK regarding false/misleading advertisements including those on the web … is this going to affect any UK Forex system vendors ?
After all wouldn’t they have to prove their worth more? I guess, who knows.
I had a look at the black dog method ages ago, but it wasn’t for me. Got good ratings on FPA though
There’s a new law come out in the UK regarding false/misleading advertisements including those on the web … is this going to affect any UK Forex system vendors ?
After all wouldn’t they have to prove their worth more? I guess, who knows.
I had a look at the black dog method ages ago, but it wasn’t for me. Got good ratings on FPA though
Kinger
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As much as you try for the quick route to success, you eventually find out at great cost there isn’t one.
I have an idea for a system I want to sell, it goes like this:
If this time last year (in hindsight) you would have gone long .... go long today !
Reverse for short.
Risk no more than 40%.
I have an idea for a system I want to sell, it goes like this:
If this time last year (in hindsight) you would have gone long .... go long today !
Reverse for short.
Risk no more than 40%.
tommygsxruk
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Hey all,
Firstly I am a member of the black dog system. I paid for it, I studied it and I trade with it every day. Hence the post I have decided to make now.
No mechanical system will make you a profitable trader. No course, no tutor, no indicator and certainly no opinionated socialites on this website. I mean come on, some posters here have so much time on their hands they are spending more time on here than actually trading. Lets face it we can all be pro traders if our post count is over 4000 and we get the status "Legendary member" No offence to Black Swan, I dont know you, I dont know if you make money trading... All I do know is I think your post was unprofessional and unfounded. You are basing your opinions on the marketing material that is on the web and NOT on the content of the black dog community and seeing the black dog for what it really is.....
Its just a template. Not a mechanical system like you say, not a holy grail just a basic simple template of a few MAs and some macds to compliment. There are many ways to trade around this template and many of us use totally different methods than the other.
I believe anyone can trade any set of moving averages, any indicator, any method. There is no right or wrong. Some use fibs, some think theyre stupid. Some use elliot wave, others laugh at the very thought. My point is there is no one way to trade successfully, its all about finding something that suits you as a trader and making it your own.
The black dog template CAN be traded profitably, its true its a small proportion that are making money with it, however as we all know we have to put in the work and study to understand the market in general.
I must add that pro members on the black dog forum have given me hours and hours of one on one skype coaching and talks. This is for NO money or gain to themselves. This is more education that I have ever got from this website where mostly its just sarcastic comments and nastiness.
Rant over.
Tommy
Firstly I am a member of the black dog system. I paid for it, I studied it and I trade with it every day. Hence the post I have decided to make now.
No mechanical system will make you a profitable trader. No course, no tutor, no indicator and certainly no opinionated socialites on this website. I mean come on, some posters here have so much time on their hands they are spending more time on here than actually trading. Lets face it we can all be pro traders if our post count is over 4000 and we get the status "Legendary member" No offence to Black Swan, I dont know you, I dont know if you make money trading... All I do know is I think your post was unprofessional and unfounded. You are basing your opinions on the marketing material that is on the web and NOT on the content of the black dog community and seeing the black dog for what it really is.....
Its just a template. Not a mechanical system like you say, not a holy grail just a basic simple template of a few MAs and some macds to compliment. There are many ways to trade around this template and many of us use totally different methods than the other.
I believe anyone can trade any set of moving averages, any indicator, any method. There is no right or wrong. Some use fibs, some think theyre stupid. Some use elliot wave, others laugh at the very thought. My point is there is no one way to trade successfully, its all about finding something that suits you as a trader and making it your own.
The black dog template CAN be traded profitably, its true its a small proportion that are making money with it, however as we all know we have to put in the work and study to understand the market in general.
I must add that pro members on the black dog forum have given me hours and hours of one on one skype coaching and talks. This is for NO money or gain to themselves. This is more education that I have ever got from this website where mostly its just sarcastic comments and nastiness.
Rant over.
Tommy
B
Black Swan
Oh look, new member finds time to big up system...haven't seen that before..:whistling
HowardCohodas
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Right on cue.
tommygsxruk
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Nice to see someone actually paying attention. Ive been a member of this site for years. You on the other hand are averaging 40 posts a week. Havent you got anything better to do like make money?
Christiaan
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really black swan if we want to look up a system we can google it for ourselves and read as many reviews we can find on the net if the system has been on the market for a while.i cannot believe that you went through all this trouble to bad mounth a system.
One look at forex peace army and i can tell you whether the system is any good.You are a super nice guy aren't you sparkie.O and please don't insult my intelligence if the markets were as preditable as you i'd be a millionare.:clap:
One look at forex peace army and i can tell you whether the system is any good.You are a super nice guy aren't you sparkie.O and please don't insult my intelligence if the markets were as preditable as you i'd be a millionare.:clap:
B
Black Swan
Oh look, someone who makes his first post, to defend a 5hitty vendor system, based on 2 MAs and the MACD..
the hare
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Christiaan
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not sure what you are asking.As for forex peace army it has a section where traders can rate a system from 1 to 5 stars and say a little about it.That way if for example sake 85% of traders that tried the system gives it a 5 star rating it is worth looking at.
A lot of times they will all tell you a system is bs or with some systems outright scams.Though i normally read every review i can find forex peace army is the first site i visit.if you want to know whether black dog system is any good or rather if any traders had success with it check this site out first.ofcourse with new systems you won't find any reviews on it because the system needs to be in the market for a while before the reviews come out.Very risky because nothing the seller tells you can be taken at face value.
Some scammers out there cleverly program their indicators to repaint and then show you too good to be true screen shots.it is only when you run them live that you realize this.
A lot of times they will all tell you a system is bs or with some systems outright scams.Though i normally read every review i can find forex peace army is the first site i visit.if you want to know whether black dog system is any good or rather if any traders had success with it check this site out first.ofcourse with new systems you won't find any reviews on it because the system needs to be in the market for a while before the reviews come out.Very risky because nothing the seller tells you can be taken at face value.
Some scammers out there cleverly program their indicators to repaint and then show you too good to be true screen shots.it is only when you run them live that you realize this.
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