Black Dog trading system, a dog with fleas..?

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Black Swan

You system hunters/holy grail hunters really have no idea what you're looking for. Like drunks you stagger from bar to bar looking for the next cheap hit as you sink deeper and deeper. What you fail to realise is that every Eureka, curved fit system, will work..for a while..heh, every dog will have it's day, given the randomness of the market it's a nailed on certainty.

Systems come and go and this black dog with fleas is no different to the TEC system vilified by new naive grail hunting traders in as much as the black dog guys failed, tinkered, failed tinkered, failed tinkered..It is a indicator based mechanical strat. with no discretion which ( like all) is subject to huge drawdowns at which point most new traders will puke, bail and blame the author demanding their money back..

Your chance of having a 30%+ drawdown is still probably circa 50/50 with this system, as it is with most out of the box systems. That'll kill the newbies confidence stone dead. It has experienced a 50% drawdown in the past..Now those 2 issues, added to the fact that one of the systems within the black doo doo (oh yes, as per usual with snake oil you can choose 3 or 4 trading methods with it now) means it is in fact no better than a 50/50 crap shoot with bells on it. This crap shoot reality is re-inforced by the fact that one of the suggested choices is 1:1 RR, risk 20 pips to gain 20 pips principally on a ridiculously adjusted MACD entry off a 15 min time-frame, do you really need a 'system' for that? Dress it up how you like but that is simply a coin toss and there's nothing wrong with that if your MM and psyche is up for it..

The MACD was invented by Gerald Appel in the 1970's. Thomas Aspray adds the histogram to the MACD in 1986 in order to anticipate MACD crossovers, and here you have the black dog guys who tinker with the standard settings to give you their proprietary technique, it'd be like buying a brand new Mercedes and taking it to kwit fit for a different exhaust system on the first day.

You may as well have HA alone on your chart and have a look and a good think as at where you think price will go next as use these $99 a month systems...or "$49 if you sign up for 6 months now, yes siree..!!"
 
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Black Swan

now that's really going to confuse the you-know-what out of them ! :)

Systems with that "new fangled magic indicator", is there no end to them? Cursory glances on collective2 etc suggest all work, for a blip in time. Some in ranges, some in trends, some when black swan events happen..That's what you want, a black swan 'black-swan' outlier events EA. When it all goes tits up it won't work, I'll just have the satisfaction of saying "I told you so!" after taking $99 off you..:p
 

the hare

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Dress it up how you like but that is simply a toin coss and there's nothing wrong with that if your MM and psyche is up for it..

I can highly reccommend tossing coins :LOL:

Last summer, my random robot achieved 5 consecutive winning months, over the same period, my intelligent robot lost 3/5 months.

I can imagine the response from these muppets following trade calls from both systems. Ironically I could have probably made a quarter of a milion bucks in subscriptions from a completely random system that ended the year at break even, whilst simultaneously recieving death threats for providing calls from a system that ended up making just short of 200% for the year with less than 12% drawdown (which again is mainly due to luck rather than good judgement on my part)

As the designer of both systems I understand exactly whats happening, but I can understand how easily an external observer without any understanding could be fooled into reaching the completely wrong conclusions.
 

timsk

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As the designer of both systems I understand exactly whats happening, but I can understand how easily an external observer without any understanding could be fooled into reaching the completely wrong conclusions.
Hi the hare,
As a discretionary trader, mechanical 'black box' systems send a shiver down my spine. That said, I quite enjoy reading the occasional post by you on the subject.

I wonder if you might be persuaded to start a bespoke thread for members who want to investigate mechanical trading systems - but have no idea of how to go about it. A sort of step-by-step 'how to' type guide, covering the core principles, knowledge and skills required etc.?

I'm sure it would be an absolutely cracking thread!
;)
Tim.
 
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Black Swan

I can highly reccommend tossing coins :LOL:

Last summer, my random robot achieved 5 consecutive winning months, over the same period, my intelligent robot lost 3/5 months.

I can imagine the response from these muppets following trade calls from both systems. Ironically I could have probably made a quarter of a milion bucks in subscriptions from a completely random system that ended the year at break even, whilst simultaneously recieving death threats for providing calls from a system that ended up making just short of 200% for the year with less than 12% drawdown (which again is mainly due to luck rather than good judgement on my part)

As the designer of both systems I understand exactly whats happening, but I can understand how easily an external observer without any understanding could be fooled into reaching the completely wrong conclusions.

best to do live calls, or optimise the system, for a 4 hr or daily chart...prolong the pain....Dead easy to squeeze a year out of the mugs*...

*oh I meant give best value for the membership
 
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Black Swan

Random Robot..LOL..it comes in a cracking box.

Here's your strap line;

"Guaranteed to break you as a trader, make no mistake.."



broken-heart-robot.jpg
 

the hare

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A sort of step-by-step 'how to' type guide, covering the core principles, knowledge and skills required etc.?

I honestly believe that to be effective, that sort of material needs to be delivered incrementally, and the reader has to actually experience and participate in the process in real time. You can accelerate the process a bit by drip feeding participants with historical data to suppliment their own reseach, but it still takes far longer than 99.99% of new traders would be prepared to spend. There are vendors out there who teach similar (and better) design methods to those I've used, notably John Joseph at next dimension capital in Chicago.

The problem is that the majority want to skip the building blocks and jump right to the bit at the end where they get details of a system that they can trade. Ironically that information is completely useless to them, and in all honesty there are FAR better systems than mine openly available at T2W, even though these systems are equally worthless too.

All of this info is already out there anyway. Van Tharp has a reasonable step by step methodology, and most of the statistical methods you'd ever need are covered in Aaronsons book, evidence based technical analysis. The only bit thats missing is the hard work making sense of it all :LOL:
 

counter_violent

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I honestly believe that to be effective, that sort of material needs to be delivered incrementally, and the reader has to actually experience and participate in the process in real time. You can accelerate the process a bit by drip feeding participants with historical data to suppliment their own reseach, but it still takes far longer than 99.99% of new traders would be prepared to spend. There are vendors out there who teach similar (and better) design methods to those I've used, notably John Joseph at next dimension capital in Chicago.

The problem is that the majority want to skip the building blocks and jump right to the bit at the end where they get details of a system that they can trade. Ironically that information is completely useless to them, and in all honesty there are FAR better systems than mine openly available at T2W, even though these systems are equally worthless too.

All of this info is already out there anyway. Van Tharp has a reasonable step by step methodology, and most of the statistical methods you'd ever need are covered in Aaronsons book, evidence based technical analysis. The only bit thats missing is the hard work making sense of it all :LOL:

Well why not have a stab at it ? I'm sure there are members here that would be willing to put in the work. As for the dunces, well they will never amount to anything anyway !
 

timsk

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The only bit thats missing is the hard work making sense of it all :LOL:
Hi the hare,
Fair points - especially the one quoted. That said, broadly speaking, the same things apply to anyone wanting to develop a discretionary based methodology. If no one attempted to do these things, there wouldn't be any good content on T2W and the site would be pretty pointless. Whilst I'm all too aware of your feelings about the shortcomings of the place, I'm sure even you'll agree that there are members / threads of value. You never know - if you gave it a shot, you might be pleasantly surprised by the outcome. So, please do me the favour of giving the idea some more thought before dismissing it completely.
Tim.
 

TheBramble

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As for the dunces, well they will never amount to anything anyway !
You always have to bring that up, don't you.

For your information he told me although I was a dunce, I had shown sufficient merit, conduct and ability to be considered worthy of being allowed to pay another £5000 to attend the next indoctrination.

He then said he was off to the 'leaky, rusty old tub'. I didn't know if that meant he was off for a bath or back to The President to abuse the latest batch, either way, it'll all come out in the wash.

As an aside, I'm almost certain I saw him in Chelsea the other day. I'd heard he and Lady T had moved to SW10 and wondered if we might bump into each other. I did try to catch him, but he'd disapperad up an alley before I had the chance.
 

the hare

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For your information he told me although I was a dunce, I had shown sufficient merit, conduct and ability to be considered worthy of being allowed to pay another £5000 to attend the next indoctrination.

He called me an intellectual pygmy :LOL:

I'm not sure if thats better or worse than being a dunce :LOL:
 

TheBramble

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He called me an intellectual pygmy :LOL:

I'm not sure if thats better or worse than being a dunce :LOL:
He never actually called me a dunce, but I decided to adopt that group anyway. They knew more about trading than they did hiring training venues.
 
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