I'd have to agree with you, if Thur and Fri look bad historically, then banking Mon-Wed would be sensible.
However, I'm in today (though FTSE's a no trade), so we'll see.
Good luck to all.
I'd have to agree with you, if Thur and Fri look bad historically, then banking Mon-Wed would be sensible.
However, I'm in today (though FTSE's a no trade), so we'll see.
Good luck to all.
I have 11 weeks breakdown on performance by each day of the week on FTSE100 - I will look it out tonight and post updated report here.
Yes, FTSE is a no trade today and I also shied away from EUR/USD. In the money on GBP/USD.
As a thought, we have been identifying no-trades where BB range exceeds 80% of ATR. Maybe there is a more reliable method? I'm now wondering about the ratio of BB range (0800-1000) to overnight range, say 2130-0800. If BB range already 2 or 5 or 10 times overnight range by 10am, is there anything left for a BB breakout? If not, is this a reliable signal for a reverse BB, as discussed here a few weeks back, trading back towards the overnight range?
As a thought, we have been identifying no-trades where BB range exceeds 80% of ATR. Maybe there is a more reliable method? I'm now wondering about the ratio of BB range (0800-1000) to overnight range, say 2130-0800. If BB range already 2 or 5 or 10 times overnight range by 10am, is there anything left for a BB breakout? If not, is this a reliable signal for a reverse BB, as discussed here a few weeks back, trading back towards the overnight range?
Stayed out of FTSE too given range.
But ventured into Forex for first time (on BB).
GBP/USD
Buy triggered at 12:00 @ 1.6210
TP hit at 13:34 @ 1.6284
+74 pips, nice start
Bet they won't all be like that.
Rugby Trader
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Thanks for the sheet Steve, just trying to figure it out, but looks like it will be very useful!
FTSE100, 11+ weeks -
Mondays = 5 wins, 1 loss, 5 expired, 1 no trade
Tuesdays = 4 wins, 3 losses, 3 expired, 2 no trades
Wednesdays = 4 wins, 3 losses, 2 expired, 3 no trades
Thursdays = 4 wins, 3 losses, 1 expired, 4 no trades
Fridays = 4 wins, 2 losses, 5 expired, 0 no trades
Mondays = 5 wins, 1 loss, 5 expired, 1 no trade
Tuesdays = 4 wins, 3 losses, 3 expired, 2 no trades
Wednesdays = 4 wins, 3 losses, 2 expired, 3 no trades
Thursdays = 4 wins, 3 losses, 1 expired, 4 no trades
Fridays = 4 wins, 2 losses, 5 expired, 0 no trades
Thursday was poor last time you looked at these figures. The extra data just confirms it. Wonder what the fx pairs are like.
A very interesting lesson in money management this week i think. I am + points but -ve cash. I have made about 100 points net this week so far but i am down about 1% on my account balance (demo only this week). I have run this system for 4 weeks now and in prior weeks i have been up about 10% at the end of the week.
Previously the way i set my £ per point was i would roughly guess the average number of points for the SL accross all pairs traded. Work out 2.5% of my account balance then figure the £ per point based on this, so i was betting exactly the same per point on each instrument. what this actually meant was some trades would be only 1% risk (if that) but others might be 6 or 7% risk.
This week i worked out 5% per instrument so each bet was a different £ per point. OK i know 5% is a lot but in principle it could be 2.5 or even 1% the result would be the same (although the size of the difference would be smaller).
You could look at this in different ways. Evidently i have had more losses than wins but also since i am +ve points it looks like the ones that would have been a higher risk with the last MM method are the ones that produce the most points and wins.
Previously the way i set my £ per point was i would roughly guess the average number of points for the SL accross all pairs traded. Work out 2.5% of my account balance then figure the £ per point based on this, so i was betting exactly the same per point on each instrument. what this actually meant was some trades would be only 1% risk (if that) but others might be 6 or 7% risk.
This week i worked out 5% per instrument so each bet was a different £ per point. OK i know 5% is a lot but in principle it could be 2.5 or even 1% the result would be the same (although the size of the difference would be smaller).
You could look at this in different ways. Evidently i have had more losses than wins but also since i am +ve points it looks like the ones that would have been a higher risk with the last MM method are the ones that produce the most points and wins.
No probs. Happy to answer any questions.
Oh dear, I knew yesterday's good start on forex wouldn't last.
GBP/USD only just about touched 1.6179 to trigger my sell and then just went back up from there.
Result - stopped out for -49 pips.
FTSE in play at the moment but looking pretty bad right now
GBP/USD only just about touched 1.6179 to trigger my sell and then just went back up from there.
Result - stopped out for -49 pips.
FTSE in play at the moment but looking pretty bad right now
I got in a bit late today so my orders were a bit off. But results show another bad day.
EUR/USD - won
GBP/USD - lost
FTSE - Lost (entered order late so adjusted SL & TP. SL just hit)
EUR/JPY - lost
GBP/JPY - won
Gives me an exact 0 net points this week. Not + or - just 0. Although because i was risking a fixed amount per trade & more trades lost (Even though it was the smaller point trades) my cash balance is down about 7% on the start of the week and i finish about 15% down on the highpoint of the week which was Tuesday.
Sod sensible money management, It doesnt work for a 1:1 r:r very well (although if more of the big points lost and it was the small points that won it would work out better than the other way). It looks like the bigger range = bigger risk trades have the higher probability of a win with this system so next week i will go back to my guestimate risk and same ppp for each trade.
It also lends a bit more support to setting a target and quiting once it is hit.
EUR/USD - won
GBP/USD - lost
FTSE - Lost (entered order late so adjusted SL & TP. SL just hit)
EUR/JPY - lost
GBP/JPY - won
Gives me an exact 0 net points this week. Not + or - just 0. Although because i was risking a fixed amount per trade & more trades lost (Even though it was the smaller point trades) my cash balance is down about 7% on the start of the week and i finish about 15% down on the highpoint of the week which was Tuesday.
Sod sensible money management, It doesnt work for a 1:1 r:r very well (although if more of the big points lost and it was the small points that won it would work out better than the other way). It looks like the bigger range = bigger risk trades have the higher probability of a win with this system so next week i will go back to my guestimate risk and same ppp for each trade.
It also lends a bit more support to setting a target and quiting once it is hit.
Baldeaglebloke
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Bit of a p!sser - just did cable and ftse today, c'est la vie have a top weekend
Ditto. FTSE s/l for me as well since my last post.
Wish I'd stopped yesterday!
Have nursed a few trades through the week, closed some for a smaller loss, banked other small profits.
Finished the week +76, though was +212 yesterday. Today was my worst day so far, -137.
Week's results by instrument -
FTSE -24 (2 no trade days, adjusted SL to minimise loss on 2, took profit early on 1)
GBP/USD -73 (hit TP on 1, hit SL on 1, adjusted SL on rest to minimise losses)
EUR/USD +33 (not triggered once, TP hit on 1, SL hit on 1, took small profit on 1, adjusted SL for loss on 1)
USD/CHF +88 (TP hit on 2, SL hit on 2, took early profit on another as TP not looking likely)
EUR/JPY +106 (TP hit on 3, 1 not triggered, 1 adjusted SL for smaller loss)
NZD/USD -48 (TP hit on 1, SL hit on 3, 1 adjusted TP for small profit)
EUR/GBP -5 (Only traded Thur and Fri. 1 TP hit, 1 SL hit)
Will be worth trying to work out what results would've been if I'd left it all to run it's course. Not sure what to make of this week, I'd take 76 at the start of the week if offered, but hard to give back 137 today. If I'm up by next Wed/Thur, I might stay clear of Friday.
Steve
Have nursed a few trades through the week, closed some for a smaller loss, banked other small profits.
Finished the week +76, though was +212 yesterday. Today was my worst day so far, -137.
Week's results by instrument -
FTSE -24 (2 no trade days, adjusted SL to minimise loss on 2, took profit early on 1)
GBP/USD -73 (hit TP on 1, hit SL on 1, adjusted SL on rest to minimise losses)
EUR/USD +33 (not triggered once, TP hit on 1, SL hit on 1, took small profit on 1, adjusted SL for loss on 1)
USD/CHF +88 (TP hit on 2, SL hit on 2, took early profit on another as TP not looking likely)
EUR/JPY +106 (TP hit on 3, 1 not triggered, 1 adjusted SL for smaller loss)
NZD/USD -48 (TP hit on 1, SL hit on 3, 1 adjusted TP for small profit)
EUR/GBP -5 (Only traded Thur and Fri. 1 TP hit, 1 SL hit)
Will be worth trying to work out what results would've been if I'd left it all to run it's course. Not sure what to make of this week, I'd take 76 at the start of the week if offered, but hard to give back 137 today. If I'm up by next Wed/Thur, I might stay clear of Friday.
Steve
I had guessed you had been managing the trades a bit. FTSE was a dead loss this week. Dont think its had such a bad week. Cable not far behind. EUR/USD better than BE, EUR/JPY had a really good week, GBP/JPY not traded most of the week as bb range has been high but when it did trade it has been good (actually it was good the days i didnt trade it).
I still think over time this could work out to be a nice staple for bringing in a small but consistent profit
Still my thoughts too, and I'm becoming more convinced as we observe more BB patterns over more markets, all in varying modes. Just a small edge can bring consistent results, and I think consistent is the key. Even the lacklustre FTSE shows 21 wins to 12 losses (full trades) over 12 weeks. I have added to my account this week so as to maximise £ return on points gained.
