I'm going to break another rule now - having closed half my FTSE position, I'm going to roll the rest over the weekend if it doesn't hit the stop before the SB close. I can't see the last two days of FTSe price action representing a bullish continuation pattern.
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The week's results on my favoured markets -
EUR/USD = Won 2:1
FTSE100 = Lost 0:1
GBP/USD = Lost 1:2
Overall, lost 3:4. Personally. still slightly up net cash on the week, though carrying a losing FTSE100 trade that could wipe that to a slight negative.
EUR/USD = Won 2:1
FTSE100 = Lost 0:1
GBP/USD = Lost 1:2
Overall, lost 3:4. Personally. still slightly up net cash on the week, though carrying a losing FTSE100 trade that could wipe that to a slight negative.
I had guessed you had been managing the trades a bit. FTSE was a dead loss this week. Dont think its had such a bad week. Cable not far behind. EUR/USD better than BE, EUR/JPY had a really good week, GBP/JPY not traded most of the week as bb range has been high but when it did trade it has been good (actually it was good the days i didnt trade it).
I still think over time this could work out to be a nice staple for bringing in a small but consistent profit
Yes, a bit of managing, made it an ok week. If I had cancelled all trades not triggered by 2:30pm, let everything run to BB stops/limits, and closing those trades that had not hit TP or SL at 6-7pm (at the worst point for me), then I would have achieved -108 (Mon +52, Tue +152, Wed -100, Thur -61, Fri -151).
A coupe of questions, when is the logical time to cancel trades that have not triggered? Two of mine that did trigger after then turned out well, they were USD/CHF, which went on to hit target quite quickly after.
When do you close those that have not hit target or stop? I think that one can only be personal judgement based on price action.
Steve.
Steve - Your question on timing is good though I think we lack data in some areas -
EUR/USD - only 10 sessions monitored. 8 triggered before 1200, of which 4 wins, 3 stopped.
FTSE100 - 60 sessions monitored. 36 triggered by 12, of which 16 wins, 8 stopped. Just 1 win was triggered after 2pm. Of 25 trades that would still have been running at the LSE close, 1630, only 1 hit target, 4 were stopped out and the rest expired.
GBP/USD - 40 sessions monitored. 32 triggered by 12, of which 10 wins, 5 stopped. Of 20 trades that would have been running at the London close, 2 would have been stopped and the rest expired.
EUR/USD - only 10 sessions monitored. 8 triggered before 1200, of which 4 wins, 3 stopped.
FTSE100 - 60 sessions monitored. 36 triggered by 12, of which 16 wins, 8 stopped. Just 1 win was triggered after 2pm. Of 25 trades that would still have been running at the LSE close, 1630, only 1 hit target, 4 were stopped out and the rest expired.
GBP/USD - 40 sessions monitored. 32 triggered by 12, of which 10 wins, 5 stopped. Of 20 trades that would have been running at the London close, 2 would have been stopped and the rest expired.
Performance per day in last 2 weeks for portfolio of EUR/USD, FTSE100 and GBP/USD (I personally think it's a false objective to aim for winning days, the period is too short to be relevant, but it does help the spirits) -
winning days - 5
losing days - 2
drawing days - 3
Interesting that all three markets were stopped out on the same 2 days in the last fortnight. If only we could have seen those days coming. They were both the Wednesdays if that means anything.
winning days - 5
losing days - 2
drawing days - 3
Interesting that all three markets were stopped out on the same 2 days in the last fortnight. If only we could have seen those days coming. They were both the Wednesdays if that means anything.
(I personally think it's a false objective to aim for winning days said:Yes, i think with this system its probably best to view a day as a sort of hedged trade. All outcomes are possible. Most likely is a slightly +ve or slightly -ve outcome. A day when most parts win is great, a day when most parts loose is not so great but its just a single day or a single trade. After the week i just had i will be using a money management strategy that treats a day as a single trade. It may mean some parts are greater risk than others but it will mean i can capitalise on the actual points gained or lost rather than how many parts of the trade win or lose (which really isnt the correct way to look at it IMHO).
I do think targets are important though. In business you would use SMART targets with your plan to measure your success and keep you on track. If trading is a business then you need to use targets also. I think weekly targets are pobably OK, its just a case of finding a realistic level to set the targets (this could also stop you giving back profits on the Thursday, Friday).
All 3 of my positions expired (all negative) yesterday, a dampening start to the week. Perhaps more significantly, the ATRs of all 3 markets, EUR/USD, FTSE100 and GBP/USD are at low extremes: EUR/USD is 162, lowest seen (data for 11 sessions): FTSE100 is 57, lowest seen (data for 61 sessions): GBP/USD is 145, lowest recorded in last 37 sessions.
The day will tell how these affect our BB trades but low ATR s indicate we're in a period of low daily ranges, which do not really support successful BB trades.
The day will tell how these affect our BB trades but low ATR s indicate we're in a period of low daily ranges, which do not really support successful BB trades.
Bit of a boring day. My only trades triggered were FTSE and EUR/USD. Expiried FTSE -ve (but only a bit) EUR/USD was in an obvious but weak downtrend so i moved stop to half before i went to bed and let it run. It was still runing when i got up this morning but has since hit TP.
Nothing else even got close to breaking out. Just bounced well within the range boundries. Cancelled the orders about 3:30.
Nothing else even got close to breaking out. Just bounced well within the range boundries. Cancelled the orders about 3:30.
Indeed yesterday not good at all. Think my GBP/USD was once again triggered by about 1 pip and then promptly reversed.
Can I ask - when people talk about their trade expiring what exactly is meant by this? Are you closing it manually at a particular time?
Thanks
Can I ask - when people talk about their trade expiring what exactly is meant by this? Are you closing it manually at a particular time?
Thanks
Hi george0 - Expiry means the US close. After this time, volume on the FTSE and Forex drops right off so I use the US close as a cut-off time for back-testing and monitoring BB pattern trades. It should be possible to set your trade to be closed if still open at this time, depends on your trading platform.
In addition, if a BB trade hasn't hit profit target by the UK close, it probably isn't going to today, in whioch case you might as well seek a manual close at the best price that becomaes available.
In addition, if a BB trade hasn't hit profit target by the UK close, it probably isn't going to today, in whioch case you might as well seek a manual close at the best price that becomaes available.
Rugby Trader
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balls, did it yesterday and monday for losses and i couldn't do it today because i was at the dentist.
oh well, hopefully tomorrow will be positive.
oh well, hopefully tomorrow will be positive.
The last few days have been so poor, and the ATRs are so low that I was sorely tempted today to play the reverse, and trade the session back into the BB ranges from the boundaries, rather than the break-outs. Held off as I just don't have the stats to show whether this would work. We have talked about playing the Reverse Big Ben and I wish someone would do the backtesting for all the rest of us.
Could be a project for the new year I think.
Could be a project for the new year I think.
Found this regarding best times/days to trade forex, think I will stay clear of Fridays,
http://www.thepowhatan.com/forex-trading-times/
GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY (2x range) all hit TP very quickly today, for +132. Had 3 others in play, but closed them all for +6 shortly after, as did not want to jeopardise the profit.
Mon and Tue pretty much cancelled each other out, but got +12 in total , so not bad.
I'm trading about 5-7 pairs a day plus FTSE, not sure set and forget would work though, last week was only a + week from managing trades. Maybe it's the pairs I've chosen, or the number of pairs I'm trading, or just a bad week that will inevitably occur. Trading the Fri (-136) didn't help.
Steve.
http://www.thepowhatan.com/forex-trading-times/
GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY (2x range) all hit TP very quickly today, for +132. Had 3 others in play, but closed them all for +6 shortly after, as did not want to jeopardise the profit.
Mon and Tue pretty much cancelled each other out, but got +12 in total , so not bad.
I'm trading about 5-7 pairs a day plus FTSE, not sure set and forget would work though, last week was only a + week from managing trades. Maybe it's the pairs I've chosen, or the number of pairs I'm trading, or just a bad week that will inevitably occur. Trading the Fri (-136) didn't help.
Steve.
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