London Opening Range Breakout

Bloodhound

Senior member
3,445 1,299
Something else that springs to mind as it's going to happen this morning is event risk. We have the usual raft of EUR PMI's coming out from 0815 which might be unhelpful for EURXXX's. From memory it's only EUR and CHF data that's released around the time of your BO's but might have an impact on your results.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,250 969
News events are a definite issue. Think I made a slight profit during NFPR's recently but it was just for the experience and the profit was more by luck than judgement or timing. In future, I will be flat with no pending orders by NFPR time etc. Its not usually that events like these cause reversals, but the excess volatility can hit stops or trigger entries that are undeserved.
 

kalott

Established member
677 57
An easy statistical conclusion from last week -
of the 14 secondary (reversal) trades which opened after 1300, 12 hit their SL
Have you tried to double size after 1 loss?

Say for example you start with size 1 at the first bo to the upside and if it fails you sell 2 at bo to the downside and then no more orders for the day

And have som time limit when you open trades (not after 1000-1100 or so?) and maybe adjust the tp on the second one?

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$VIX

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$EVZ
 
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tomorton

Legendary member
7,250 969
Have you tried to double size after 1 loss?

Say for example you start with size 1 at the first bo to the upside and if it fails you sell 2 at bo to the downside and then no more orders for the day

And have som time limit when you open trades (not after 1000-1100 or so?) and maybe adjust the tp on the second one?

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$VIX

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$EVZ

Doubling size after a loss is a Martingale strategy, and its not something I've ever even tried. I'm currently using extremely small positions of equal size, so I can collect some standardised statistics and visibility of price behaviour and profitability.

A latest-time limit on new orders might be something I will uncover. It seems a sensible (maybe even essential) rule for B/O's, not so much for reversals.
 

Gumping

Established member
876 152
Another point to note is that FX markets can completely reverse at 9am (UK time)
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,250 969
Another point to note is that FX markets can completely reverse at 9am (UK time)

They can indeed. I'm currently getting nowhere with the break-outs, but the reversal trades are holding up alright. But its annoying I am often having to wait for midday for these to trigger. That also might be a recent (and therefore temporary) thing as so many banks are holding their breath for Brexit......
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,250 969
Brexit (I assume) continues to suppress strong price moves from the London open and to trigger early reversals within the rest of the day. So my primary trades aren't working and the secondaries don't run far enough to make a decent r:r.

I'm reduced to swing trading off the H1 bars to gain the experience but have reduced my screen-time and investment incurred. Its not something I have previously done so this is all good training for me and maybe it will come in handy alongside the ORBO's and OR reversals after we get some clarity on Brexit and the markets free up a bit.

What I have done is cut right back on the correlating markets to reduce risk and workload. Instead of trading 7 GBP pairs and 6 EUR pairs and 5 USD pairs etc., targets are now -
AUD/NZD
CAD/CHF
EUR/GBP
USD/JPY
NASDAQ100
Gold
Brent

Hopefully these will regularly provide ample trade opportunities with only modest levels of correlation.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,250 969
Update for this week -
Put the DAX in instead of the Nasdaq. Will also be setting a TP order at r:r of 1:1. On each day if the first trade on a given market is a winner, I won't take any more signals on that one that day. If its a loser, I'll take one more max.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,250 969
Further minor update and slight revisions to system.

I'm continuing to run these trades, I've slightly revised the target list -
AUD/NZD or AUD/USD
EUR/CHF or or EUR/JPY or EUR/USD or EUR/GBP
GBP/CHF or GBP/JPY or GBP/USD
USD/JPY
DAX or DJIA
Brent Crude

So there should always be some opportunities but I don't look to take multiple parallel trades in say EUR or GBP. I've eliminated Gold and CAD/CHF etc. where spreads are just too wide.

Recently primary break-out trades from the 0700-0800 range have been very poor performers. The secondary trades in the reverse direction have been much more reliable if based on the 0800-0900 or 0900-1000 bar as a swing high/low and using the other extreme of the trigger bar as the stop-loss level.

Enjoying good success pyramiding trades as soon as profit reaches 1r, then 2r, then 3r etc., rather than taking profits. Moving SL ahead by 1r each time on all the earlier running trades which are pyramided. These price movements can persist into the evening hours but the best movement takes place in the am and I'm currently looking to exit everything and cancel pending orders about 1pm. Price can sometimes run very quickly so it pays to have at least one pyramid order ready at all times.

Onwards and upwards.
 

trendie

Legendary member
6,119 981
Is this still active?
Really interested in seeing how this is going.
 

tomorton

Legendary member
7,250 969
Cheers trendie.

I'm still running these trades, both breakouts from the 0700-0800 bar and reversals after 0900: also added in swing trades off the same H1 charts but trades of all three types have to be trend-following with regards the H1 50EMA. Adding the EMA has been a good move. The breakout set is weakest: longer term we might see this has been due to the damping effect of the Brexit impasse - few FX markets are trending strongly.

As ever I'm not seeing when to get out with profit on individual charts. This tempts me to simply close everything and shut down for the day when the unrealised profit total looks healthy. Trying to resist this impulse.

But I am making the effort to screen-watch so I can close losers earlier than the stop-loss and re-set a new entry order.

Time will tell........