Big Ben on the FTSE100

Current rules are v9 -
Take high between 0800 and 0900, add 2pts plus SB firm's spread for long entry order, Target 1 is +13pts net, Target 2 is +26pts net, initial stop is -13pts net.
If price does not hit entry by 1300, cancel entry order. Assuming entry triggers, if price hits T1 move stop to b/e: if price hits T2 close position: if trade still running at 1300 close position.
Reverse the above for short entry order also set at 9.

Don't bother trying to trade this on US holidays.

Occasionally find price crashing through the high or low as I am trying to set my entry, so sometimes wait for pull-back into the range or just ignore this entry and only set the opposite entry order: not sure which adaptation is preferable.
 
A short week with Thanksgiving effectively undermining the system's chances: lost 0-3, 39pts down net. Over 4 weeks, net up 52pts. Have a good weekend all.
 
An interesting week - 1 win, 2 losses, 1 break-even and 1 no-trade. No gain or loss, just the sheer pleasure of watching the FTSE go up and down and up and down.

Over the last 4 weeks, the system shows a net gain of 39pts. This represents about +7.5% on capital. Over November, the account has been grown by +13%.
 
You could be right ordinaryguy76. I am doing my testing of this live but I wish someone would do a 10year backtest (though come to think of it, I've never seen a 10 year backtest on anything) but I would like to see it.

Hi tomorton, I'm glad to see you're still persevering to get your method refined. It looks like it's been going well in the last month. I've been attempting a set rules method myself and writing about it on another site where it's mostly futures traders using Ninjatrader and Multicharts. So there are few people into the automated trading on there as those platforms allow you to do that.

So I was doing my live testing for a little while and managed to do a years manual backtesting in excel and the results were great. However, after reading some the threads on BMT about backtesting I decided I needed to do a more comprehensive backtest of 5 years or more as the sample was too small. I downloaded the free version of Ninjatrader and got the free demo account with Mirus Futures which gives you live intraday data on the ES (S&P 500), YM, NQ and a few others and about 5 years of historical data. So you could in theory do the same and backtest your method in Ninjatrader using the ES as a proxy for the FTSE. I think the ES is less volatile than the FTSE so you might even find the results are better on that.

Anyway my testing showed that even though my method had been great this year, that it had had terrible years as well, as it depended on volatility in the market. Anyway here's the link to my thread with my results once I got the test setup. isa's simple momentum method test

This is the link to get Ninjatrader for free: NinjaTrader stock, futures and forex charting software and online trading platform.

And this is the link to Mirus Futures to get the free futures demo account to use with Ninja: Futures Trading Broker | NinjaTrader with Zen-Fire | Online Futures Trading | Mirus Futures

Hope that helps you to be able to test it properly. Keep up the good work on here (y)
 

Attachments

  • 55357d1321828105.png
    55357d1321828105.png
    61 KB · Views: 357
Blimey isatrader, that's very thorough, though I suppose only what would amount to due diligence when promoting or trialling a new strategy.

But you just know I'm not going to do this don't you?
 
Blimey isatrader, that's very thorough, though I suppose only what would amount to due diligence when promoting or trialling a new strategy.

But you just know I'm not going to do this don't you?

Yep, I get that impression that you're happy to do just carry on with the live testing and see how you go. But I would recommend the backtesting over a longer time period, even if it's just manually in Excel as, as you can see with my testing, what I thought looked like to be a good method actually wasn't in the end. Because it only works in certain market conditions and they are very hard to predict. So it is back to the drawing board for me after a lot of hard work :cry:
 
A 2-2 week, so nicely in the black if trading at 1:2 r:r. Results over last 4 weeks are 4-8 so break-even in points and £. Sad to have to settle for that in such strange market periods when the FTSE over 4 weeks has been down 7% and up 8%.
 
A 2-2 week, so nicely in the black if trading at 1:2 r:r. Results over last 4 weeks are 4-8 so break-even in points and £. Sad to have to settle for that in such strange market periods when the FTSE over 4 weeks has been down 7% and up 8%.

Seasons greetings Tomorton (and all other thread followers),:D

Keep at it. I think your simple stress free approach is good. I think the fact that you are ploughing through in difficult markets and still ahead (I think you are ahead on a cumulative version by version approach anyway) is great. If there is ever a trending market (I suppose it is possible that one year in the future the market may start going steadily up again) then you should bag the points that you have been waiting for.

I am trying a couple of other things but am going to try a slightly modified approach. I won't clutter your thread with it.. but if anything interesting comes of it then of course I will share.

All the best and enjoy festive season.:clover:
 
Thanks for the encouragement, it's most welcome when we get unpredictable days like recently, helps me see past these and take a longer view.
 
Shakingly bad week, 0-4 and 1 no-trade, for -52pts. Performance over last 20 readers remains positive (but only just) in points at 7-13, +26pts per winner, -13 per loser. Haven't seen a 7-13 performance in any 20 trades since July, so I am thinking this must pick up soon and revert to mean. Not trading on the 23rd or 30th but the pre-Christmas week and pre-New Year weeks last year were solid winners, though only with limited targets at 1:1 r:r as used then, so worthwhile for me to trade through the next fortnight. Best wishes all.
 
:confused: Everything ok Tomorton?

You given up on the morning strategy? Trying something new, having a breather?

Anyway all the best

:clover:
 
:confused: Everything ok Tomorton?

You given up on the morning strategy? Trying something new, having a breather?

Anyway all the best

:clover:


Hi bangkoker - Casting about for revisions to Big Ben strategy. Still running BB trades on FTSE but performance in second half of last year just not good enough, repeated false break-outs day after day, and this is still a pattern so far.

Maybe it's partly that I'm trying this as an application to an index rather than sticking to the origin, GBP/USD. Indices really just don't work the same way so I plan return to cable next week. I know the strategy works, it's widely known and used, I just need to stick to simple principles.

More work needed but I will resume reports here or else start a new thread for 2012. Onwards and upwards.
 
:) So what is the plan for Cable trades?

Back to a range i.e 7am-8am or suchlike?

Or fixed points? Let me know and i will join in. I am doing a couple of other things on Fx, i must admit that the FTSE sideways nature of late has made it very hard for a strategy such as BigBen, it needs trending markets I guess.

Let me know the plan and hopefully I will join in.
 
This is what I found for original system, do you know any more about it Tomorton? or how you plan to implement it as a strategy?

"Big Ben Strategy is a day trading strategy that takes advantages of the 24-hour trading possibility. It is meant to be used with GBP/USD mainly. According to that you should capture the first directional intraday move after the market opens in London (1am ET). The first big move will usually happen within couple of hours.
While this strategy can be used on the long side as well, it’s mainly meant for short side. Meaning selling short.
The strategy
The market opens and soon (within couple of hours) it makes a new low compared to the opening price, the new low should be at least 25 pips from the opening price. Then the trend reverses and moves at least 25 pips UP from the opening price. This is followed by another short term trend reversal and the price goes below the first low (so more than 25 pips below the opening price). Now you should sell a breakout that is at least 7 pips lower than the first low. Once this has been filled place a stop loss no more than 40 pips above the entry price. Once the price moves lower and lower, also lower your stop limit (half the distance between entry and stop).
And that’s pretty much it. Haven’t tested it myself yet, but will do so soon. If someone has tried it, feel free to share the information in the comments section."


and from elsewhere written differently:

THE BIG BEN STRATEGY

Here’s the story behind Project daily20pip, after this session you will understand why London market is the best time for day trading and why this strategy is so easy even for a forex newbie.
Day trading the foreign currency (forex, FX or interbank) markets is definitely one of the more challenging endeavors an aspiring trader can pursue the higher degree of leverage (as high as 50:1 or 100:1) available in this market can increase profit, but it equally accelerate loss.
This makes the issue of trade timing and selection that much more critical to success Because of the lack of volume data in the spot currency market, newer trader will find they will need to develop much more disciplined strategies that rely less on broader market dynamics and more raw price action and individual market…
The “Big Ben” strategy exemplifies this approach. This suite for day trading technique that takes advantage of the shift from trading from one market centre to another in the 24-hour forex trading environment



The Big Ben Strategy Big Ben is a currency-specific trading strategy designed to captured the first direction al intraday move that often occurs within the first few hours after the Frankfurt/London market openings which begin at approximately 1 am EST or 13.00 WIB.
The strategy woks best with the British pound/U.S dollar (GBP/USD) rate.

Because this currency rate trades lightly outside London trading hours, the surge in trading every morning in the U.K gives it a “real” market opening, which the strategy looks to exploit. Figure 1 shows pound/dollar trading is virtually non-existent during Asian trading hours. When London opens, however, the pound/dollar accounts for nearly one-quarter of all forex trading. Currency rates with more continuous, 24-hour trading will have les of a distinct open/close as they pass through the different money centers. For example, the dollar/yen rate (USD/JPY), which dominates forex activity during Asian trading hours (78 percent of volume), still accounts for 17 percent of trading during European hours. Before explaining the specific logic behind the methodology let’s take a look at what needs to occur for a trade to set up.



The Logic As mentioned. The pound / dollar rate tends to have lower trading volume outside European / London trading hours because the majority of GBP/USD spot deals are worked through U.K and European dealers. This gives the European/British interbank community tremendous insight into the currency pair’s actual supply demand picture.
The Big Ben trade sets up when interbank dealing desks use this intelligence to trigger stops on both sides of market, resulting in new intraday highs and lows. Once these orders are cleared from the books, the market is primed for its first real directional move of the day, which is what the strategy is designed to capture.

The logic behind this trade should be similar with many range breakout strategy used to capitalize on the first real move of the day like our daily20pip strategy with forex signal generator working method with daily pivot calculation.



The rules The following rules are for short traders, but the strategy can be reserved to trade on the long side.

1.The pair makes a new range at least 20 to 25 pips above or bellow the opening price after the early Frankfurt/London trading in the GBP/USD rate begins around 1 am EST.

2.The pair then reverses and trade 20 to 25 pips or more above or bellow the opening price.

3.The pair the reverse once again to trade back bellow the intraday low established in step 1.

4.Sell a breakout (at least seven pips) bellow the London low.

5.Once filled, place an initial protective stop about 30 to 40 pips above or bellow the entry price.

6.After the market moves lower by the distance between the entry price and stop, cover half the position and trail a stop on the remainder.

These simple rules position you to profit from common behaviour that can occur in the pound / dollar when the London / European markets opens.

Trade examples :



Figures 2 shows a Big Ben trade idea on a five minute chart. The first vertical line marks midnight EST. The second vertical line denotes the Frankfurt open and the third line shows when London players begin entering the market. When Frankfurt market opened, the pound / dollar first moved lower, taking out any nearby sell stops. Within 15 minutes of London entering the picture.
However, the market reversed to the upside. The pair was now free to make the first real directional move of the day, and it fell 90 “pips” before buyers stepped in.

If I am not supposed to post this then please remove (but thought useful):whistle:rolleyes:
 

Attachments

  • forex_bigben2.gif
    forex_bigben2.gif
    48.4 KB · Views: 802
  • forex_bigben3.gif
    forex_bigben3.gif
    47.1 KB · Views: 801
  • big.jpg
    big.jpg
    20.3 KB · Views: 286
Last edited:
ET appears to be 5 hours behind GMT.

So 1am ET would be 6am GMT..

Let's see what we can do.
 
Yes bangkoker, I was thinking of going back to 0700-0800 for the range high and low. A much shorter range suggests the market will not have had time to react to orders based on overnight market movements and events, setting a range between support and resistance. A much longer range increases the range, putting range-based targets further away and reducing the time for price to hit target in the session: this makes it more likely a trade will expire within the target-stop window, subject to events later in the session rahther than a breakout from an early morning range. Of course, 0700-0730 or 0712-0753 or 0727-0811 might do pretty well also, it's a game of behavioural probabilities, not reaction to immutable laws of physics.

There is an instructive article you will find as a pdf on the web by Kristian Kerr in currency trader magazine, September 2004.

Mark Fisher in the Logical Trader uses BB as the basis for his success, having developed a trading plan called ACD from this pattern of behaviour.

I still think BB has the potential to offer a steady income, it's frustrating I haven't cracked its best application yet but that's down to me, not the markets.
 
Tommo

Excuse me for butting in but, since you're thinking about changing BB parameters, I wonder if you've thought about shrinking the time range. The key times on FTSE are 8:30, 9:00 and 10:00 and it is usual to see some reversal try around these times.

So what about trying open to 8:30 range - the stats seem good.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/uk-indices/120172-anyone-scalping-ftse-futures-504.html#post1742236

also http://www.trade2win.com/boards/uk-indices/120172-anyone-scalping-ftse-futures-504.html#post1742196

jon
 
I have a suggestion for you if you must trade market opens. Open a futures demo account with xtrader or ninjatrader (mirus or velocity are ok) pull up the FTSE contract and watch what happens at 8.00am on the open and look to get with the flow. If you watch the 1st few minutes of the open you might find some better opportunities than this Big Ben nonsense. But don't listen to this as I am talking 5hite :LOL:

Ironically I heard on the news today that big Ben is sinking.
 
Top