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Weekly summary, Big Ben trades –
EUR/USD – 3 hit target, 2 stopped out
FTSE100 – 2 hit target, 1 stopped out, 2 expired negative
GBP/USD – 2 hit target, 1 stopped out, 1 expired positive, 1 expired negative
Completed trades this week – 7 winners, 4 losers
Monthly summary, Big Ben trades, October –
EUR/USD (data from 5 sessions only) – 3 hit target, 2 stopped out
FTSE100 – 8 hit target, 5 stopped out, 2 expired positive, 4 expired negative, 2 no trades
GBP/USD – 8 hit target, 2 stopped out, 6 expired positive, 4 expired negative, 1 no trade
Completed trades October– 19 winners, 9 losers
EUR/USD – 3 hit target, 2 stopped out
FTSE100 – 2 hit target, 1 stopped out, 2 expired negative
GBP/USD – 2 hit target, 1 stopped out, 1 expired positive, 1 expired negative
Completed trades this week – 7 winners, 4 losers
Monthly summary, Big Ben trades, October –
EUR/USD (data from 5 sessions only) – 3 hit target, 2 stopped out
FTSE100 – 8 hit target, 5 stopped out, 2 expired positive, 4 expired negative, 2 no trades
GBP/USD – 8 hit target, 2 stopped out, 6 expired positive, 4 expired negative, 1 no trade
Completed trades October– 19 winners, 9 losers
Char I have folloed (and traded) most is FTSE100, with 11 weeks data. splitting results this into 4-week blocks gives overall encouraging picture of trades hitting target against trades hitting stops -
Wks 1-4 = 10:2
Wks 2-5 = 10:4
Wks 3-6 = 8:4
Wks 4-7 = 5:4
Wks 5-8 = 4:7
Wks 6-9 = 7:4
Wks 7-10 = 7:4
Wks 8-11 = 8:5
Overall performance on this chart over the 11 weeks is 21:11.
Wks 1-4 = 10:2
Wks 2-5 = 10:4
Wks 3-6 = 8:4
Wks 4-7 = 5:4
Wks 5-8 = 4:7
Wks 6-9 = 7:4
Wks 7-10 = 7:4
Wks 8-11 = 8:5
Overall performance on this chart over the 11 weeks is 21:11.
Can the FTSE100 profit target be pushed further out from entry to improve r:r?
Over the last 11 weeks, there have been 21 FTSE100 trades hitting the BB target of entry plus BB range (for longs: minus BB range for shorts). Eighteen of these trades (86%) saw price travel 15% or more beyond the profit target.
Over the last 11 weeks, there have been 21 FTSE100 trades hitting the BB target of entry plus BB range (for longs: minus BB range for shorts). Eighteen of these trades (86%) saw price travel 15% or more beyond the profit target.
The r:r is a problem. I dont really think cutting winners by 15% for 15% more points is the way to go though. If we could get another 50% out of FTSE that would be worth while (providing we dont cut the winners too much). Thing is i dont think it is possible without a better SL management.
I think there are other instruments with better chances of improving the targets. Dont you get constantly frustrated watching EUR/USD running away to 3 or more times the BB range. GPB/USD might be a good one aswell but i know it has been in your face with EUR/USD so many times. I think i will look closer at the past 20 EUR'USD sessions today. Even with this though i think a better SL managment than hit TP or hit SL is needed. Perhaps move to BE at 1x (or maybe move to 50% at 1x will also work). I will look into it.
I think there are other instruments with better chances of improving the targets. Dont you get constantly frustrated watching EUR/USD running away to 3 or more times the BB range. GPB/USD might be a good one aswell but i know it has been in your face with EUR/USD so many times. I think i will look closer at the past 20 EUR'USD sessions today. Even with this though i think a better SL managment than hit TP or hit SL is needed. Perhaps move to BE at 1x (or maybe move to 50% at 1x will also work). I will look into it.
Cheers. I was watching a video on Youtube last night re London Breakout trades using the Tokyo Forex session, appr. 0200-0800, to find a range. They presenter suggested something like closing half of position when profit target (range on entry level) is reached (but not re-setting stop to b/e) and letting the remaining half run to the same distance again from entry.
He also suggested he likes to confirm that the Tokyo session did actually make a range, using standard TA to confirm s/r, before setting his breakout levels. If Tokyo made a trend rather than a range, he ignores the trade for that day.
I'm not convinced about moving targets, but it seems pretty clear that if a range between real s/r is confirmed by price rebounding off these limits, the breakout will be 'true' when it comes.
He also suggested he likes to confirm that the Tokyo session did actually make a range, using standard TA to confirm s/r, before setting his breakout levels. If Tokyo made a trend rather than a range, he ignores the trade for that day.
I'm not convinced about moving targets, but it seems pretty clear that if a range between real s/r is confirmed by price rebounding off these limits, the breakout will be 'true' when it comes.
Been looking at EUR/USD in detail over the last 20 days. With the system as is going for a 1:1 r:r its not as good a performer as it seems.
7 Win
7 Loss
3 expire -ve
2 expire +ve
1 obvious no trade (note - some of the expires may have also been no trades. I didnt check ATR just entry, exit and SL).
Also i would just like to point out that 4 weeks ago there were no wins in that week (3 loss, 1 no trade, 1 expire +ve but very close to a win so that skewed the results a bit).
If you changed to a 1:2 r:r - out of those 7 wins 2 would have hit TP at 2x and 3 would have expired at a lot more than 1x. 2 would have expired pretty much at the 1x level. If you simply set a rule of expire at 9pm 1 of the 2 wins would have hit almost 3x the other about 2.5.
If you did go for a 1:2 -
Not once did it reverse to leave you worse off. Also moving stop to BE at 1x would not change the outcome neither would moving the stop to BE +50%. Moving stop to BE+75% would have resulted in the stop being hit on 1 of the wins and 2 of the expire between 1 and 2x.
What this shows me is that with EUR/USD we should ALWAYS be looking at a 1:2 r:r. preferably with moving the stop to BE +50% when we hit the 1x level.
7 Win
7 Loss
3 expire -ve
2 expire +ve
1 obvious no trade (note - some of the expires may have also been no trades. I didnt check ATR just entry, exit and SL).
Also i would just like to point out that 4 weeks ago there were no wins in that week (3 loss, 1 no trade, 1 expire +ve but very close to a win so that skewed the results a bit).
If you changed to a 1:2 r:r - out of those 7 wins 2 would have hit TP at 2x and 3 would have expired at a lot more than 1x. 2 would have expired pretty much at the 1x level. If you simply set a rule of expire at 9pm 1 of the 2 wins would have hit almost 3x the other about 2.5.
If you did go for a 1:2 -
Not once did it reverse to leave you worse off. Also moving stop to BE at 1x would not change the outcome neither would moving the stop to BE +50%. Moving stop to BE+75% would have resulted in the stop being hit on 1 of the wins and 2 of the expire between 1 and 2x.
What this shows me is that with EUR/USD we should ALWAYS be looking at a 1:2 r:r. preferably with moving the stop to BE +50% when we hit the 1x level.
Interesting breakdown Mata Nui, good summary.
EUR/USD aready stands out as a feisty chart - current ATR 171 / current price 13918 pips = 1.23%GBP/USD current ATR 157 / current price 16024 pips = 0.98%
Showing that EUR/USD is, by this measure, a quarter more volatile to trade using BB than GBP/USD. Incidentally, FTSE100 ATR/price is 1.13%, also behind EUR/USD.
EUR/USD aready stands out as a feisty chart - current ATR 171 / current price 13918 pips = 1.23%GBP/USD current ATR 157 / current price 16024 pips = 0.98%
Showing that EUR/USD is, by this measure, a quarter more volatile to trade using BB than GBP/USD. Incidentally, FTSE100 ATR/price is 1.13%, also behind EUR/USD.
Just trading a demo account this week while i move my funds from worldspreads to slm. Want to keep trading it though to keep the stats. Going to try something different on the demo this week. I am hoping the good thing about trading so many instruments is the hedging (although not always working). Although i do get a bit worried about total exposure in any one day (never mind about a possible bad week). With this in mind i am going to trade the demo at 5% risk per instrument. If the hedging works it will give me a bit more confidence with my live account.
The risk is one of the reasons i am moving to slm. Worldspreads minimum bet takes my risk too high with a small account and this system.
The risk is one of the reasons i am moving to slm. Worldspreads minimum bet takes my risk too high with a small account and this system.
I have moved my EUR/USD to 2 x BB range for TP; it's more volatile (for obvious reasons given the current turmoil). I can't help feeling that 5% risk per instrument, despite benefits of non-correlation, is far too big. Rule of thumb is 2% max per trade, and at the institutional level even that would be considered far too much. Beware!
I have moved my EUR/USD to 2 x BB range for TP; it's more volatile (for obvious reasons given the current turmoil). I can't help feeling that 5% risk per instrument, despite benefits of non-correlation, is far too big. Rule of thumb is 2% max per trade, and at the institutional level even that would be considered far too much. Beware!
Yes, 5% is a huge risk which is why its on a demo account. My live account is small and with the worldpreads minimum bet size i found last week simply to play some of the instuments i would be taking close to a 5% risk. That is why i am not doing it. I am moving my account to slm which allows bets as small as 10p meaning i can manage my risk at a realistic level. For a few reasons it will take about a week to get my funds transfered to the new account so i thought i would use the time for a little experiment. If i had to play the 5% risk with this system what is the likely outcome? Only one way to find out really. I have a feeling over a week i would probably be ok but i didnt want to risk it.
Nice start to the week. Target hit on EUR/USD, closed FTSE100 in the money (chart showed expired positive at US close anyway).
Cancelled BB orders on GBP/USD, as these had not been triggered by mid-afternoon. This went and expired negative so not a bad decision.
Cancelled BB orders on GBP/USD, as these had not been triggered by mid-afternoon. This went and expired negative so not a bad decision.
Hi,Just trading a demo account this week while i move my funds from worldspreads to slm.
The risk is one of the reasons i am moving to slm. Worldspreads minimum bet takes my risk too high with a small account and this system.
New to this thread and was about to use WorldSpreads for their refund offer whilst initially trying this method on the FTSE.
Having attempted to use their Demo platform, was unable to see how to set up OCO orders. Did ask their enquiries, who were under the impression it can't be done to suit this method. Can you give any guidance, please?
Good afternoon all.
Having read through the thread, I think perhaps the most striking post for me was by Tomorton on 25th September in which he says: "ATR does appear to be significant. Of trades which closed during this session, hitting either target or stop, when ATR was 72 or more, 9 were winners and 1 a loser: when ATR was 71 or less, 3 were winners and 5 losers."
The rest of the post is equally informative - it's on Page 38 if you want to check back.
Does anyone stick to this principle? I know it's always tempting to trade, but we all like the odds to be stacked in our favour.
Has anyone come up with a similar formula for the currency pairs?
Having read through the thread, I think perhaps the most striking post for me was by Tomorton on 25th September in which he says: "ATR does appear to be significant. Of trades which closed during this session, hitting either target or stop, when ATR was 72 or more, 9 were winners and 1 a loser: when ATR was 71 or less, 3 were winners and 5 losers."
The rest of the post is equally informative - it's on Page 38 if you want to check back.
Does anyone stick to this principle? I know it's always tempting to trade, but we all like the odds to be stacked in our favour.
Has anyone come up with a similar formula for the currency pairs?
Good afternoon all.
Having read through the thread, I think perhaps the most striking post for me was by Tomorton on 25th September in which he says: "ATR does appear to be significant. Of trades which closed during this session, hitting either target or stop, when ATR was 72 or more, 9 were winners and 1 a loser: when ATR was 71 or less, 3 were winners and 5 losers."
The rest of the post is equally informative - it's on Page 38 if you want to check back.
Does anyone stick to this principle? I know it's always tempting to trade, but we all like the odds to be stacked in our favour.
Has anyone come up with a similar formula for the currency pairs?
Though that seems very relevant, I must confess, I don't think I understand it. What do the 72 and 71 figures represent, is it,
- when ATR was 72 (% of range) or more, 9 were winners and 1 a loser
and - when ATR was 71 (% of range) or less, 3 were winners and 5 losers.
Or was it just when the actual ATR figure for the FTSE was 71 and 72 respectively?
Grateful if somebody could clarify?
Cheers.
Last edited:
Baldeaglebloke
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As I understood it, Steve, it was when the actual ATR figure on the FTSE was 71 and 72 respectively.
Correct me if I'm wrong Tomorton - or anyone else!
My underdstanding as well - it is purely the ATR
I dont think anyone is sticking to it as there is a lot of experimentation with some fx pairs at the moment. I dont think there is enough data to make similar conclusions about ATR and win rate with them but i would guess there will also be some correlation.
Yesterday was OK, I binned ftse early so just got out at a profit. EUR/USD was worth going for a 2x as it expired at about 1.5 x the range.
FTSE range too big for me today so not trading it. GBP/USD looking poorly, EUR/USD looking OK, GBP/JPY cancelled orders as not hit (and not looking like they would be), EUR/JPY shot to TP within a couple of hours of being hit. So today looking OK as well.
Yesterday was OK, I binned ftse early so just got out at a profit. EUR/USD was worth going for a 2x as it expired at about 1.5 x the range.
FTSE range too big for me today so not trading it. GBP/USD looking poorly, EUR/USD looking OK, GBP/JPY cancelled orders as not hit (and not looking like they would be), EUR/JPY shot to TP within a couple of hours of being hit. So today looking OK as well.
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