Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET

[fibo_trader]

Tsunami watch and alert reminder = Thread CALL

CALL: on interest rates

Nobody expecting it, all fast asleep at the wheel locked in the tight embrace of complacency. Boom! Interest Rates are ready to rocket north in a 3rd wave of epic degree when fibo-trader's trendline breaks out topside. Fasten seatbelts, hide and watch. Its going to get mean.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

contrary to popular belief that FED will/can keep Interest rates low and going to zero will be shattered. The Market commands the FED what to do. But the Pubic always has this backwards.

Suuuuuuuuuch a powerful country our USA, sooooooo much firepower but needs soooooooo much babysitting from the FED to keep interest rates low so the market and economy don't get spooked. That's power? What a crock! Wimp!



10-yr Yield chart:


View attachment 263091






View attachment 263092

Interest Rates: the bigger picture = Tsunami picture with 100% strike power accuracy in the Wave. This wave is a 100 footer.

See the "easy credit sections marked in red text?" What has always always always followed is a period of heavy stuff. What heavy stuff is coming? See right edge of screen for

student loan defaults
Pension fund collapse
Real Estate crash 2
Government debt implosion
Global Central Bank Failure
Global DEFLATION
++++++
+++++++


Fasten seatbelts

 

[fibo_trader]

New York Stock Exchange Composite Index (NYA)

catastrophic STOP should be placed on 1H right above my real time trendline. Then just let the short run. If we get luck it will run forever, if not we get a kick in the ass but the STOP guarantees profits and live to fight another day. What more can a trend surfer ask for?


View attachment 263216

The CROWD aka HERD by definition is stupid because there is no individuality, its all group think, they act as one, so are very very very slow to see stuff

See quoted post and other mentions of the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index (NYA) - behold I've run into just one other person who considers this Index as super important. His name is Jeffrey Grundlach and he is known as the BOND KING. I don't follow him but once in a while its nice to see someone in LaLaLand who gets it

Jeffrey Gundlach says stocks are in a bear market, sees better than 50% chance for new tariffs

"I think you've got an irresistible force meeting an immovable object," Gundlach says of President Trump and China's Xi.

www.cnbc.com

 

[fibo_trader]

What the Investor/Trader crowd don't get is that the BEAR Market began in January 2018. Only the US, India and perhaps a very very few others have made marginal higher highs. Its a TOPPING PROCESS? But what kind of topping process? In SPX thy have all been 3 wavers which can only imply an Expanding triangle.

But ...........

Dow Jones has not made a higher top since Oct 2018 YET. If he doesn't ......................... ouch! DIAMOND TOPPING FORMATION in progress? ???????


When in doubt go back to basic-basic, Air, Water, Trendline. Trendline on Jones makes Bank of America look like a one-legged man in a butt-kicking contest.

 

[fibo_trader]

From post #6 on page 1: AXP short 116.68

Price now 116.67

GREEN finally. Patience is a virtue in the stock market? It can bore you is more like it. Will it last or will it now go sideways to form a topping pattern? Damn if I know.

Tentative STOP for my Shorts @ 120.2 = above top downtrendline (purple) and 1H top May 28. Reason to place the STOP? So far on 1H this is a 3-wave decline. If I've read the uptrend wrong, then if all I get here is a 3-wave decline, it means the dominant trend is still UP and the top will be taken out. So this is a son-of-a-gun STOP

 

[fibo_trader]

Done.

For the shortimers' next GBP trade, run an identical trendline down thru' the 1H May 21 rally top 1.2813. then extend it. Stay short until broken. Bad luck if it breaks too soon, my sympathies, but generally these trades go on for quite a while. For longtimers trend surfers stay focussed on Daily . Wait for the next rally to behold a nice fat bum, then run your next downtrendline thru' the top of bum and extend. That is your line in the sand for daily TP on shorts. This might go on forever, hahahahahaha, so what, its all good, longevity is good, chaps.

And if you forget every damn thing I said that's OK too but never forget that when I show an A-B-C on any timeframe, the peak of the "C" wave becomes a significant point in the realm of TREND MECHANICS that ALL trends will honor with divine loyalty. when such is broken one then entertains the fact that a higher degree wave has emerged.

At 3:44 left front dancer in yellow. straight 10

GBPUSD short trade. Read quote first. trendline thru' May 21 on 1H was taken out which means TP. Healthy profit, jump in on 200-pd rejection stay short until the new trendline I've drawn is busted.

 

[fibo_trader]

GBPUSD ...... refer to the daily chart posted a day or 2 ago, but is again posted below. See the top white trendline and how GBP fell in a sheer vertical down move? Now here's the thing: all the crap taught in books on trading (hocus pocus rules) pale in comparison to just one factor: how big are your kahunas and guts to stomach the rise each time from a low knowing your short profits are getting eaten up and turned to smoke while you wait for the downtrend to reassert itself? When you know the trend is down you have to be willing to ride the horse with it like a warrior. You can't allow yourself to be thrown off the horse so easily. PAIN when you see your profits eaten up? Its an occupational hazard but it will make you a man. So you have to devise some strategy to balance the level of kahunas reqd. that balance comes from even a trendline with a small coat hanger as the current one in the GBP on daily timeframe on May 27. Due to the steep slope down I want to nail the profit at the first sign of trouble = trendline break because the consolidation thereafter could be time consuming. Hang your coat there = run your next trendline thru' there and extend. That then is your guide to TP. Your STOP follows this line.

Now if the trendline is taken out it does not mean the trend is over. All it means is that this phase of the trend is complete and there might be some consolidation and then continauation at a different slope.


Written very fast, possibly makes no sense at all. sorry

 

[fibo_trader]

GBPUSD


Another reason I have am drawing that steep trendline is because GBP is fast approaching a major Fibonacci level shown as 61.8%. I want to grab as much sugarcane juice as I can because the catapult from that level could be huge and kill profit earned super fast. So I take precautions.

Dig?

 

[fibo_trader]

Trade doing nicely. Today $57.87.


-------------------------------

Here's the test of fibo_trader - is he worth a shite? Can he take a beating in the bend in the trend, survive it, almost get killed by wrong entry into SPY, but but but still stay on his horse and ride the Crude Oil trend to its natural decay and death and then dig this, catch the bend in the trend again and ride it north bound to $500/barrel? We shall see. That is what the fibrous one wants to do. this is what he is about.

A trend surfer at heart there is no greater pleasure in this stupid existence/life of the fibrous one. Everything else bores the crap out of me. When the correcting wave starts eating up my profits, that there is no better test of my kahunas as I hold on and wait for the dominant trend to reassert itself. I could bail like all traders do and then reenter. Nah! Not for me. Stress? You don't know nothing. It kills and kills quickly. Abusing my system is what causes the drawdown.

The bend in the trend disappoints and frustrates the fibrous one because he is a quick mover but these friggin markets move soooooo damn slow in the bend in the trend its downright irritating and debilitating. And then you might find out that the bend was just that only a bend and the northbound trip continues. This then is what the fibrous one wants to conquer. Its LIFE or DEATH - I'm here for either one.



More from Land of smiles, a place where the load lifts right off my shoulders ......................................

Crude Oil trade moving right along nicely now 56.48 (started short at 63.52)

Lesson:
PRICE is KING. Cut to the chase and weed out all else except PRICE.

Poor "bone" (ET poster & sponsor). Crude Oil is destroying him. Slaughter of the Fundamental analysts using FA to time Crude, hahahahaha.

 

[fibo_trader]

bearish engulfing candle on Crude daily. Then look at the hook on Macd. All this and below the 200-day. Still its just chump change thus far, just a few bucks, nothing to write home about.

 

[fibo_trader]

Dow Jones Transportation Index = proxy for the Economy??

The Baltic Dry Index is the true champion in this regard. Devised by the London based Baltic Exchange. See video below. Yes I have the chart too. Its too scary to show, very depressing

She be diving southbound but has arrived at the 50% station where chicken curry and coconut water will be served. Will she stay or will she go further south to the movie theaters at 61.8%, the magnetic puller. Damn if I know.


View attachment 263217

Baltic DRY Index chart

 

[fibo_trader]

Working on something for way more than just trading - want to get a grip on Europe and UK relationship on many levels esp. considering all the talk going on about the eurozone collapsing.


This is a work in progress.

 

[fibo_trader]

Sorry, the chart is EURGBP

 

[fibo_trader]

If there is someone here trading EurGbp (not me, don't know enough about her just yet) keep eye on one feature that looks thus far consistent for this combo of Europeans They seem to love the straight Fibonacci Extension. So have a look see at daily eurGbp. See the sideways stuff at the top? Looks like an internal 4th wave to me. Which means one more small wave up and then we could have a nice juicy correction. The fact that 161.8% is right up there in the vicinity adds odds in favor of such.

 

[fibo_trader]

Donald Trump hammered the Dow Futures real good ........................

Trump slaps tariffs on all imports from Mexico, sending stock futures tumbling

U.S. stock futures fell Thursday night and early Friday after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs against all products imported from Mexico, saying...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[fibo_trader]

The moment when Fibo_trader knew Donald would win the election was this moment when the audience lafffed their asses off at 0:10

It was iike the stock market tops/bottoms in general, way too one-sided for Hillary to win. Media was showing hardly anybody liked Donald. Overwhelming odds. It was like at stock market tops with 99.99% Bulls. You just know you got to bet the other way as a contrarian. Never mind if one does not understand it - the CROWD can never win at near 100% one-directional

 

[fibo_trader]

(This could be a handsome trade. It is definitely not an 80/20 trade, i.e. it is not a trade where stuff lines up in your favor. Its a son of a gun trade because niemand/nobody will be expecting it. If anybody takes it, you must be ready to TP around $1394 by placing real time trendline under price on 15 min. timeframe)

What if Goldie (Spot Gold) fools everybody and makes a sudden dash to close to $1,394 from current $1284.4?

I ask the question becaue the upwave in Gold from August 2018 low is a total screwball, an asinine, hovine, bovine wave. Its soooo screwy it gives me a headache. But would I give any importance to the first rise from Aug 16 to Aug 28 (a 9-day move north, a sort of a mini wave)? I would. Nobody else would. But I would. Why? Because it looks like a tiny 3-waver, the signature of a FUNKY move. If Goldie is telegraphing me that she is starting out with an abc, then the move north is not finished as we still need a wave 5 up.

Hence the suspected aborning dash to $1,400 area ($1,394)

What's a fella to do in the midst of such trickery? I'd say, "go down to basic-basic, dig in there, then start deriving forward" So I placed 2 trendlines. If Goldie breaks north we're on. If south then as usual I'm just a vagrant.

Time will tell.


View attachment 263148

see chart in quote first, then
see both Gold charts that follow. Look in lower panel too. breakout?

I have modified the trendline slightly to make it more difficult to have a breakout, hahahahahahaha. Just being cautious. We don't need any more money do we? God help us, what a game this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Will we get a breakout or not, hahahahaha?

 

[fibo_trader]

Tsunami watch and alert reminder = Thread CALL







Interest Rates: the bigger picture = Tsunami picture with 100% strike power accuracy in the Wave. This wave is a 100 footer.

See the "easy credit sections marked in red text?" What has always always always followed is a period of heavy stuff. What heavy stuff is coming? See right edge of screen for

student loan defaults
Pension fund collapse
Real Estate crash 2
Government debt implosion
Global Central Bank Failure
Global DEFLATION
++++++
+++++++


Fasten seatbelts





View attachment 263221

10-yr Yield arrives at significant 161.8% and dojies. Will we get the reversal?

 

[fibo_trader]

CROWD SENTIMENT

So many ways to measure this. There's DSI, Univ. Mich, Newsletters sentiment, Funds cash on sidelines, etc., etc., and then there is the Vix (my fav).

ET is an excellent place to gauge crowd sentiment. From now on at every major market turn I will read the posts of the 25 opinion leaders at ET and voila in an instant I know where the ET crowd is going. Very useful. Love it. One of the best learning experiences in the stock market, better than any book. Crowd sentiment = gift from God.

Applying crowd sentiment to Donald Trump election, lesson 2 compilation from deep deep deep in my archives which will from now on be used to teach people how important the subject of SENTIMENT is to partner with TA.

Formula: heavy one-sided-crowd-SENTIMENT + TA = perfect timing tool for tops/bottoms.

67k was my nett win on Donald Trump winning. Nobody I knew was betting on the Don. Nobody. Nobody. And then towards the end when the Media stuff was pouring in about how celebrations were already underway for the Hillary Clinton win, there was a moment of loss for me when I thought, "my technique has failed me" I was miserable. Because I have rarely seen anything so one-sided. Hate for Trump was so prevalent everywhere it was staggering. From a contrarian's point of view I had to go that way, had to, was compelled to.

But the cost of being wrong in being a contrarian? Bloody hell, the pressure can maim and kill. But I held tight and firm just like I did with my SPY holdings even though I was taking big shots to the stomach.

This is the type of shite I heard all thru' the election period that tested my resolve.

Contrarianism = sheer test of a fella's inner strength

 

[new_trader]

see chart in quote first, then
see both Gold charts that follow. Look in lower panel too. breakout?


View attachment 263242







I have modified the trendline slightly to make it more difficult to have a breakout, hahahahahahaha. Just being cautious. We don't need any more money do we? God help us, what a game this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Will we get a breakout or not, hahahahaha?



View attachment 263243

The consensus is: Bond yields are falling because the market is forecasting a recession meaning the US FED will cut rates. The charts seem to confirm this. I made the following market projections in my journal back in March 2019. The ES dipping to around 2350 and GC breaking above US$1400...this could happen before the end of 2019.

ES Trading

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted that she'd been wrong about inflation, the precise thing that as a former chair of the Federal Reserve she would be expected to understand and anticipate. She should have subscribed to @new_trader journal!:cool: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admits...

www.trade2win.com

 

[fibo_trader]

Trading opportunity Dollar/Mexican Peso ............ thanks to Donald J Trump for this one. Had he not done what he did today I might not have noticed the inner workings. On the monthly its been in a 4th wave triangle for 2 years, boring sideways action. PRICE is king, not Donald, but had donald not hammered Mexico today I would not have taken a closer look at the wave count at right edge of the chart. We are in rocket blaster Wave 3 north. Make hay amigos. Keep protective STOP right under Wave 2 in my chart. Its your catastrophic stop.

Wave 3 is supposed to be the fastest quickest return on investment.

This also means that Mexico is going to get even more cheap than it already is. It also might signal that Dollar is ready to restart hammering Emerging market currencies again???? Will have a look at Asia dollar index manana



monthly USDMXN

Daily USDMXN