Bear Market almost ready to resume ....... March 12, 2019 posted at ET

[fibo_trader]

Segundo,

On the Dow Transports (proxy for the Economy) the increased slope in the 2nd trendline and then the further yet more increase in slope in the 3rd yet to be drawn trendline for what looks like a freefall, is that the 3rd of 3rd? Give me a sign, Segundo. that's all I ask.

 

[fibo_trader]

London FTSE 100 punctures the neckline on Friday. Other chaps have broken their neckine, but not the FTSE. Let's see if she can stay above it Monday? If she does not or cannot stay above it and breaks it convincingly, only then does my chart go into effect.

 

[new_trader]

Nice name. 😀

No, never been here

I did a search on the word effluvium in this forum and the vast majority of results on the first page are posts by deadbroke & fibo_trader. I suppose it's because there are two things in common - Technical analysis and unpleasant discharge.

 

[fibo_trader]

I did a search on the word effluvium in this forum and the vast majority of results on the first page are posts by deadbroke & fibo_trader. I suppose it's because there are two things in common - Technical analysis and unpleasant discharge.

Fellow who fights with wife all day gets no piece at night

 

[fibo_trader]

(This could be a handsome trade. It is definitely not an 80/20 trade, i.e. it is not a trade where stuff lines up in your favor. Its a son of a gun trade because niemand/nobody will be expecting it. If anybody takes it, you must be ready to TP around $1394 by placing real time trendline under price on 15 min. timeframe)

What if Goldie (Spot Gold) fools everybody and makes a sudden dash to close to $1,394 from current $1284.4?

I ask the question becaue the upwave in Gold from August 2018 low is a total screwball, an asinine, hovine, bovine wave. Its soooo screwy it gives me a headache. But would I give any importance to the first rise from Aug 16 to Aug 28 (a 9-day move north, a sort of a mini wave)? I would. Nobody else would. But I would. Why? Because it looks like a tiny 3-waver, the signature of a FUNKY move. If Goldie is telegraphing me that she is starting out with an abc, then the move north is not finished as we still need a wave 5 up.

Hence the suspected aborning dash to $1,400 area ($1,394)

What's a fella to do in the midst of such trickery? I'd say, "go down to basic-basic, dig in there, then start deriving forward" So I placed 2 trendlines. If Goldie breaks north we're on. If south then as usual I'm just a vagrant.

Time will tell.


View attachment 263148

yippie kai yeh, Goldie going toward my target like a bat out of Hell. Only $30 more to go, hahaha. Obscene money is this trading game, absolute robbery and legal and best is its something from nothing. God, do I love it so! 😎. Live for nothing, die for something. What a Life. Bloody ridiculous when you can knock down an upper-middleclass annual salary before taxes IN JUST ONE TRADE. 😀😀😀😀

 

[fibo_trader]

Out of the corner of one eye, glance at thread title. Then grab a beer. Then look at the Mighty Alphabet entering BEAR territory.

BEAR has no doubt sent a cease and desist order to the Angel of Death, "fibo & only fibo will be spared slaughter, the sign of BEAR is on his lodge, he is the only one who has neither disrespected me nor underestimated me - he and only he may go in peace"

 

[fibo_trader]

Other so-called warriors & experts disrespected BEAR to such a degree, that when they saw the 1000 point Dow Rally at Christmas, they proclaimed in unison, "BEAR is dead, Dow Jones killed him". I tried to whisper to them, "have you forgotten that we dipped clearly into even a retard definition of a bear market and are out of it sooooo fast, and you don't think deeeeeep structural damage has took-ed place?".

They laffffed their asses off at me. Then they looked at me and lafffffed some more. That was when the definition of being ALONE come to me with clarity. In the depth of agony, BEAR whispered to me, "this is the level of pain that makes YOU the go to guy, hang in there, don't succumb to the crowd, I'm going to barbecue 'em all"

Results:

Many are dead already. They were loaded to the hilt LONG

At Elitetrader.com EVERY single cat now walks bow-legged. Especially Baron, the owner. Because NOW he knows with utter certainty that counterintuitively ET is no different to the HERD/CROWD and gets cott on the wrong side of every damn TOP/BOTTOM. And the best-est part? BEAR ain't even got started in earnest YET. 😀😀😎😎

 

[fibo_trader]

Like I said before, the volatility (fighting, flaming, cussing, even attacking wives of members, rude to the nth) is why CROWD SENTIMENT is best studied at a place like ET. VOLATILITY at ET = 30 - 60. In contrast, Volatility at T2W = 10 = complacency to the nth. Is T2W a nice well behaved place? YES. Is ET? NO.

I believe I spent approx. 40 hours in total in the search engine and hammered out searches from year 2001 to current and examined in detail all significant tops/bottoms in this time period. I did the work. Better student than fibo on planet Earth?. No Sir, it ain't possible.

2007-2008 from top to bottom had not ONE single ET cat ready for trend reversal. At the 2009 low they were making proclamations of Dow 100 etc., NONE dared to go LONG; not even for 50 shares of stock. Soooooo petrified they were.

I gave this research to Baron and Magna, the cop from Jerkwater, USA. The cop is so redneck he could mow his lawn and find a car

Love ET, always will. What an education in Crowd sentiment for timing tops/bottoms in any financial market.

 

[fibo_trader]

Thus far the BEAR market of 2018 & 2019 is IDENTICAL to that of 2007 and 1970s and 1929 crash. The first part of a BEAR is called Wave 1 down. The reason the CROWD misses the warning inherent in Wave 1 is because they have extrapolated the current trend to infinity. They never grasp or dig that it will come to an end.

Then during the first recovery upwave they like at ET go, “see it was all a hoax there is NO danger”

Wave 3 down comes next when they are loaded to the hilt in complacency, catches ‘em by surprise. They get slaughtered.



Here’s how BEAR came this time (2018, 2019) and at those times mentioned above. .......




It came with a surrealistic slowness ... so gradually that on the one hand it was possible to live through a good part of it without realizing that it was happening and on the other hand, it was possible to believe one had experienced and survived it when in fact it had no more than just begun.


Amen!

 

[fibo_trader]

New traders take note:



There be NO game on EARTH better than Investing/Trading. Even acting and stardom pale in comparison. There is no 2nd place contender. And all this is still valid even if you blow up and go bust - an occupational hazard. Broke? No big deal. No Academy Awards are issued in this game. No MBA or PHd. The certificate comes from BEAR hisself after 2 successive bear markets of success. Primary byproduct? Brass balls + 3 bull markets in a row + an outrageous tipper that waitresses NEVER forget

Your Ma will tell all her friends, “I put my last cent into this kid - my rate of return cannae be calculated except by a divine calculator”

 

[fibo_trader]

See the Gold trade in recent posts. When to take profits? See Goldie on 1H.

Wait for coat hanger and then run your line thru' it. Then let profits run to Canada. Hahahahahaha. Heresy! Say what?

It gets worse. The big kahuna cats can break every single rule in the book and including the rule of professionals and go rogue akin to a rogue wave and when they see subwave 2 formed and a breakout occurring in sub 2/3, go for a massive massive position LONG with STOP right under wave 2 and then close out the massive massive part when you count 5 tiny waves all well within the 3rd wave. Pocket 100k fast. Let the major slowpoke position run as-is as per my instructions here for normal people. Fibo is no normal person. Gotta be proficient with waves to do this kinda stuff so not recommended but it is here to show the traders what they are missing out on by been politically correct as taught in books. YAWN!


In a Wave 3, Fibo shines like a shooting star. Wave 3 returns the fastest and highest return known to Man.

Fibo comes a friggin alive to the beat of a 3rd wave. Its like being in a saloon, the only time he is really happy, hahahahahahaha.
Like so, the blood be pumping, steam coming out the nostrils - all this happens in a wave 3 ...... like so

 

[fibo_trader]

Robert Prechter can't catch a wave 3 to save his life, hahahahahaha, told him so.

Wave 3 is the domain of a guerrilla fighter who can work wonders from the back of a horse. A Wave 3 is so magnificen-te, so sublime that just to cott it right is a wonder to behold. Then come all the mechanics within this Wave 3. It has such depth, such levels of magic for the trader to explore in terms of speed, power and vertical drive that it begs for the mastery of leverage, a truly dangerous sword in the hands of the uninformed and lousy fighters. A wave 3 can slice the carotid of a novice in a heartbeat.

Fibo was challenged to the max by the power within a Wave 3. DEATH for Fibo? Who cares? I came here to live with Wave 3 or die from a Wave 3. Leverage with one's own money? You ain't seen nothing yet. I can throw so much at a 3rd wave that if I lost it all I could go to the Salvation Army for board/lodge, sleep curled up as a foetus for a couple weeks and then be back in the game to tackle the next 3rd wave after building a new bankroll


Donna in a Wave 3 performance. The geetar was a wave 2 correction

 

[fibo_trader]

Gold trade:


Exercise some caution around $347. It is marked as a 423.6% hit. Wave 3 will respect it sometimes with a perfect hit, sometimes might fly past and then shoot right back. I'm still young so there is a heck of a long way to go in understanding the depth of Wave 3. But I don't give a damn because there is no game bigger than BEAR as its firmly implanted in everybody's mind so there is nothing more senior to this than GOD. Within BEAR is the entire screwup of Boom/Bust that plagues the planet, the 10-15 wars at any given time, etc., Time to master BEAR? Eons. Taught in MBA? Dream on! Harvard, Princeton, Yale = clowns in this regard.

God is a different subject altogether. He don't got no problem with Fibo. Fibo gives freely to the ones both love.

Now notice in the daily chart of gold extreme right edge I have drawn another grid for that portion of the upwave which has a Wave 3 within it, hahahahahaha, let's see how it plays out as I test myself. Notice how it hit 161.8% today?. Dig it baby.

GBPUSD ............. see earlier posts, same, same chart in effect. GBP threatening my daily trendline nicely, and on 1H going to test the 200-pd ema. Downtrend medium-term still in effect, but the short-term nanosecond chart cats should just draw the juicy clear as daylight uptrendline on 1H GBPUSD and if Long which is what these cats ususally do (swim against the river), TP when TL breaks for a nice juicy profit.

Mind you, I haven't changed a thing on the 1H chart, same lines, just zoomed in so you can see the 1H uptrendline

On the daily chart I have perfected the trendline by hitting the anchor points 100%. See lower chart for the white trendlines




View attachment 263311




View attachment 263312

GBPUSD:

See 1H chart above esp. the trendline I drew for the short-timers. Then see correction. Note correction is a 3-waver, therefore dominant 1H trend is still UP. So draw trendline under the wave low. Let the sucker run. Sideways move is a 4th wave? Be cautious and a trendline under it when it completes and extend it. That's you TP line. I say the word TP because I see GBP is trying to breakout on the daiy chart so caution is reqd.

daily GBPUSD

 

[fibo_trader]

London FTSE 100 punctures the neckline on Friday. Other chaps have broken their neckine, but not the FTSE. Let's see if she can stay above it Monday? If she does not or cannot stay above it and breaks it convincingly, only then does my chart go into effect.



View attachment 263317

London FTSE a go go gets a reprieve on 161.8% and the neckline is still intact. What's more is the Hammer candlestick which hints at rally/reversal. Can London rally? Of course she can. If she does, she will make Fibo a very happy man indeed. why? It will validate 161.8% even more. So if the purple 1H line busts, she is rallying. But you will note that the hammer has punctured the neckline real good.

 

[fibo_trader]

Place STOP 60.77 as Crude gaps down yet again. Poor bone, message to bone, I know he is reading here as of yesterday, "fibo holds no grudges, your clients are safe from me, I ride alone, those who take clients for a living do so because they cannot trade themselves, so many times I told you, bone, learn bone learn, learn before its too late. Go back and study all the GOLDEN RATIO links I gave you at ET. Learn bone learn, learn before its too late, amigo. Then come and shake hands with me.

Crude Oil trade:


The warrior Fibo leaves the STOP as-is. Yawn!. Now notice how much profit Fibo is putting at risk? From 60.77 all the way down. Do I give a rat's ass? I do, hahahahaha. Could the market mess me up and kill that profit? Yeah. Will it piss me off? Yeah.

Now on to you chaps. anybody following this trade, your rear ends are puckering up as you gawk at the huge profit sitting on the table and you can't sleep, eat or think. So here's the deal. If the 1H purple trendline breaks, go ahead and take your profit. I'll get you back in short again at the next rally top.

 

[Pat494]

Expecting a major BEAR market ............................


SPY short entry 279.2 today, March 12, 2019

Multiple short entries thereafter

2,000 more shares added short last week 293.42

All positions still open

Big losses ongoing.

Haven't changed a thing.

Hope you are still in and not cut your losses.
Trump did you a big favour attacking Mexico with more tarifs and depressing the market.
But it may just be a " dead cat " bounce.
I don't know what pills you are on but they would sell well over here. lol

 

[fibo_trader]

Hope you are still in and not cut your losses.
Trump did you a big favour attacking Mexico with more tarifs and depressing the market.
But it may just be a " dead cat " bounce.
I don't know what pills you are on but they would sell well over here. lol

No amigo, Trump didn't do me no favors, I only have Price on my charts, no Trump or any other pawns of King PRICE

see next for answer to your "hope"

 

[fibo_trader]

All GREEN. Closed out ALL SPY holdings today in real time @ 281.44

And take me disappearing thru' the smoke rings of my mind
Down the foggy ruins of time
Far past the frozen leaves, the haunted frightened trees

Re-post

 

[fibo_trader]

Hope you are still in and not cut your losses.
Trump did you a big favour attacking Mexico with more tarifs and depressing the market.
But it may just be a " dead cat " bounce.
I don't know what pills you are on but they would sell well over here. lol

No offense Pat but you present a standard misconception that all (?????) traders share in common - it costs 'em dearly and its quite easy to see at least one reason why this would be so - if you have to focus on so many unknowns (Trump, China, Mexico, Palestinians ad infinitum) in your trading, you will sure as night follows day, get slaughtered (95% losing trader statistics)

Your Honor, will they ever get this? Nah! Poor fellows, I wish they would because their families would thank them for it as the bread would pour in.

PRICE makes the News. It is then reported by the Media and altered to reflect their stupidity by finding the nearest likely CAUSE. How far is the million dollar salaried celebrity Newscaster from understanding PRICE is the generator of News? Trillions of miles. They are lost in a sea of stupidity and perennial lostness with upside down backwards forwards CAUSE/EFFECT.

PROOF:

Send Fibo trader to another planet (where he already is, hahahahaha), no contact with a single human, no News, no friends, NOBODY, nothing, but all he is allowed is a brokerage account on Earth with an internet connection that only updates his charts in real time but without any News of any kind. Heck he would not even know who the president of the USA was/is.

Then have Fibo pick a stock to trade. Watch how he flogs it, killls it with ease just like here (except of course when I got hammered by SPY for weeks waiting for help like a dumbass, but that error was not the fault of Trump or News, it was entirely MY OWN STUPIDITY))


Hahahahahaha, Your HOnor, they will never get it.

 

[fibo_trader]

How simple is it really?

Its soooooooo bloody simple that it would shock ..........

Fibo's weaponry is log scale PRICE chart, one moving average (200-pd), Macd + RSI. Nothing else, nada, zip, no News, no tips, no Warren Buffet, nothing nobody. Why the 200-pd? Because PRICE has shown over decades that HE respects this magnificent chap greatly. Can Fibo go PURE PRICE and get rid of Macd and RSI? Sure! But I know they are not PRICE, just calculations on Price.

Will they get it, Your Honor? No way! They never will because if they did, society would be turned on its head and there would be no POOR downtrodden folks no more - the rulers of the planet would be overthrown. Trading game would end because there would be no more losers.