Best Thread BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[bbmac]

How strong is downtrend?

Extended pullback off the current lows described above meets supply at the previous 1hr swing lo=prev supp=potential sbr zone shown below which is just about a fractal sweing low so qualifies to be a previous swing low

Nice 5min hidden-divergence based Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback ) set-up developed there:

and entry was timed with the 1min regular bearish divergence based Reversal set-upshown below but not with the first bearish candle but the one pointed to as 0900 candle was the Ecb release of monthly report so waited for dust to settle:

The 5min Re-entry set-up came @ a HH on that t/f although coinciding with a Lh on 30min/1hr into whose trend the Re-entry set-up indicated a hi-probability 'with next t/f trend' trading opportunity after the pullback...I have just booked +20pips profit from a 6553bid entry as a result...choice was take profit or see if a ' with trend ' follow thru to a new LL did result from this set-up and would have been more willing to do that if set-up had come @ a LH or H/LH configuration respectively.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

4hr

Near-term 4hr, as I see it presently is below, unbreeched fibs are to 6842 from 5707 and 6260. The blue zone at bottom of screenshot is co-existant on the Daily t/f.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Regular bullish divergence at today's current low

There was regular bullish divergence set-ups up from 1min to 1hr t/f (5min osc extreme based reversal set-up) at the current intraday lows - that support confluence of the prev 1hr/4hr sw lo zone, 4hr asc t/line and mni bids 6500/20..

G/L

 

[bbmac]

strong buying off the current lows so far....

Text Book perfect 1min Re-entry (to next higher t/f (+) trend after a pullback) set-up occurred @ 1001am, coming @ a L on 1min and a corresponding HL on 5min into whose uptrend the re-entry set-up after a pullback indicated a hi-probability ' with trend ' trading opportunity....5min macd signal line was crossed above it's zero axis and 30min (& 1hr) were pointing up...all good

But the set-up came following (a LH and L on 5min, so not the optimum configuration for a a trend, ie a HH, HL would have been optimum before the HL at which this set-up develop. I took a chance on such a perfectly formed set-up and price action trigger and traded the set-up anyway at a reduced volume/risk as had read on the newsfeeds that '...asian sovereign accounts etc were active in buying the dips to current lows...' and it worked out well for a nice pip gain as the buyers came in.

I have just rejected the 15min hidden-div based Re-entry (to 1hr t/f downtrend after a pullback) set-up (pictured below) timed as a Reversal set-up on 1min trigger (Reversal Extreme ii for those that follow) as I couldn't identify any potential SBR on 1hr...shame as perfect set-ups coming @ a H on 15min corresponding with a LH on 1hr and 1hr/4hr macd signal lines optimum. Price has sold down strongly from the 1min trigger Reversal set-up before the buy the dips players came in again @ the 2nd HL on 5min, correct at writing.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Buy the dip

Plenty of buying of dips atm on cable, 5min is shown below, and again the buyers come in @ the 2nd HL circled, following the drop from 6589. 2 x HL also visible on 15min and 1 x HL on 30min, off the current intraday lows.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Finishing here for the day as 5min prints a LH, with a final look @ near-term 1hr t/f in respect of potential supp/res factors...the current recovery Hi is circled, with price currently @ 54% of it's 20day average pip range.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Fundamentally Speaking....

King talking down the £ yesterday as the market interpretted his words as meaning could be more QE and rates at current levels for some time to come, and then Geithner talking up the $ (strong $ is desirable, recognises it's importance globally etc...yeh I know, who is he kidding) ...this pairing should be a no-brainer shouldn't it ?? Lol...except both want a 're-balancing' toward savings and exports, but of course it is consumption that grows Gdp with all the benefits that come from that...so there we have it, both statements not at all at odds with each other ! (I'm just glad my trading decsions are technical, Lol)

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Fri 13th Nov

Fri 13th-Unlucky !? Hope not, lol

Double bottom at that previous 1hr/4hr swing lo=prev supp=potential supp zone and 2 x pinbars on the run up past the 50% of the posts Boe Inflation report/King's comments fall.

The 1hr chart as I see it is respect of potential supp/res factors is below;

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Th 19th Nov 09

Cable has breeched it's ascending potential support trend line on 4hr/daily as a downtrend re-establishes on the lower 5min t/f, that downtrend being co-existant to the 1hr t/f..Currently demand/support has been found @ the 38.2% fib of the 6260-6876 move after early london session selling past the asian session low around 6685.

This is how I see the 1hr t/f in respect of potential supp/res factors atm, and the red/blue previous obvious near-term swing hi/lo zones are co-existant on 4hr too. Fibs not shown on this 1hr chart are the 5707-6876 and said 6260-6876 moves with only the 76.4% of the 6513-6876 @ 6599 left unbreeched.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

38.2% 6260-6876

hi-probability Reversal set-ups on the lower t/f's at that potential support mentioned above being the 38.2% fib of 6260-6876...enbaling a safe play of the pullback.

The 1min regular sequential bullish divergence based repeating set-up is here:

.....which was supported by an oscillator extremes/cci hook based repeating reversal set-up on the 5min t/f:

G/L

 

[gamma]

Hi bbmac,
Expecting a bit of a pullback here to test the pivot @16688

 

[bbmac]

Hi bbmac,
Expecting a bit of a pullback here to test the pivot @16688

Hi Gamma, I have the daily pivot higher? but 38.2% of the intraday fall is there and mni touting offers in the 6685 area more toward 67000 they say..5min has printed a LH, HL then a H and now a L off that LL at current i/day Low....regular bearish divergence coupled with hidden bearish divergence in the 5min osciallators at that 38.2% of current i/day fall area.

Uk data due at 0930am could affect it....could have ability to dissapoint especially if retail sales are much weaker than expected and govt borrowing is higher than expected, Expectations are for growth in retail sales and around a £7Bn govt borrowing figure

That set-up above at current i/day lows also had a 30min repeating regular bullish divergence based set-up on 30min supporting it ..pic below

G/L

 

[bbmac]

That set-up referrred to above at the 38.2% of the current i/day fall is here:

It was supported by some hidden div in the 5min osc but set-up came @ a H after a HL on that t/f although still @ a LH on the 30min

If data comes in as expected, conventional wisdom suggests some knee-jerk £ strength ? ....but it is data, and anything can happen, lol

G/L

 

[bbmac]

0930am Data

So, September retail sales revised higher, October headline lower than expected and Govt Borrowing higher than expected ?!? sort that one out...Lol...Price currently banging it's head on the react @ the 50% of i/day fall that is at same place as 23.6% of main 6876-current i/day low fall

G/L

 

[globaljobber]

Excellent day today with lots of nice setups so far. Had to post 1m chart here showing the ones I saw this morning between 7:00am and 9:00am.

 

[bbmac]

w/e 20th Nov 09

Another Bearish daily candle close on Friday off the recent 6876 Hi, the Weekly candle too closing as a bearish engulfing of last week's evening star weekly candle. That 6876 recent Hi was the second attempt on the previous weekly t/f swing hi=prev res =potential res zone created by the current 7044 yearly hi...it is shown in the weekly screenshot below as well as the next near-term obvious previous swing lo=prev supp = potential suppoort zone on this t/f, below current price and the ascending potential; support trend line

Price remains in an uptrend on the weekly t/f, whilst on the daily price has sold below the last HL of it's recent uptrend, as well as the ascending potential support trend line on that t/f. The near-term obvious potential support/resistance factors on this t/f are shown on screenshot below and the blue zone (previous swing lo=prev supp=potential supp) is co-existant on the weekly t/f.

Turning to the 4hr t/f and price is in a downtrend swelling below it's 100sma..The near-term obvious potential support/resistance factors on this t/f are shown on screenshot below and the blue and red zones are co-existant on the Daily t/f.

The downtrend extends down to the 30min t/f although on that and the 1hr a HL has been printed in the 1hr previous swing lo=prev supp = potential supp zone created by Friday's Low, although price closed short of the last LH on that 1hr t/f, the pullback hi off Friday's 6459 Low, the last LL of the resepective downtrend, that last LH being @ 6532 and at the top of that previous swing lo=prev supp=potential sbr zone on the 1hr/4hr/daily t/f.

The most obvious swings for fibs of the down move off 6876 recent Hi are the swings down from that 6876 and 6675.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Mon 23rd Nov 09

Cable adopts a bullish tone on an overnight re-test of the previous 1hr swing lo=prev supp=potential supp zone created by the Friday Low @ 6459, and is testing the 61.8% of the 6675-6459 swing as t/f's to 30min go into an uptrend with 1hr printing a H above last LH of it's downtrend now.

The 1hr chart in respect of potential near-term obvious potential supp/res factors is shown below, the red abd blue zones are co-existant with minor previous swings on 4hr;

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Cable's bullish tone so far today continued as price breaks through the 38.2% 6876-6459 following a small pullback from it, now finding supply around the 76.4% of the shorter 6675-6459move...that pullback off the 38.2% fib mentioned above that was co-existant with the top of the prev 1hr/minor 4hr swing lo=prev supp=potential sbr zone created the best Re-entry [ to next higher t/f trend after a pullback] set-up of the day so far. The 5min prev sw hi=prev res=potential rbs is shown below

and the 1min hidden-div based re-entry set-up is here

A nice pip gain ensued before the fresh supply described above.

The initial pullback of that 38.2% fib mentioned above saw a nice 1min trigger reg-div based repeating reversal set-up to short for a few pips gain too..

 

[bbmac]

1hr

This is what I am see-ing now on 1hr in respect of obvious near-term potential supp/res/sbr/rbs factors as price drops from that previously mentioned 76.4% 6675-6459 and finds some demand @ the 23.6% of the friday low-today's current hi, 6459-6629 move, the demand coming at a L on 5min below the last HL of it's uptrend.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Bullish tone continues after extended pullback?

You can see below the 5min Hidden-divergence based Re-entry (to next higher t/f trend after a pullback) set-up that developed following the drop from current i/day Hi to the potential rbs/supp of the 23.6% 6459-6627 move, mni also touting bids toward 6580.

The set-up came @ a L below last HlLof the 5min uptrend but still @ a HL on 30min into whose uptrend the Re-entry set-up indicated a hi-probability 'with trend' trading opportunity....not optimum, but ok therefore in respect of where it developed re overall price action on the 2 x t/f's concerned. There was no lower 1min trigger set-up so had to go in on close of first 5min bullish candle in the set-up. Small +10pip gain booked only.

G/L