Best Thread BBmac's Gbpusd thread

[bbmac]

Price reaches the 50% of 6656-6131 @ 6494 as decsribed in post above at which there is a previous 1hr minor swing hi=previous resistance=potential resistance zone...(confluence of 2 x potential res factors and Mni talking about offers in the 6390/00 zone also)

....@ which a 1min trigger Reversal set-up develops and is supported by a reversal set-up on 5 and 15min, the 1min bearish divergence and band deviation based set-up is shown below. A quick +15pips gain from the set-up.

The previous 4hr swing lo=prev support=potential sbr zone detailed in last post remains untouched by price, correct at time of writing.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Per the 2 x posts above trend is up to 1hr t/f per overall price action-peak/valley analysis and strong bullish candles on 4hr, macd signal lines are pointing up 15min-4hr t/f and the 5min macd signal is still crossed above it's axis alhough the pullback has dragged it back a bit..price now re-tests the previous 5min swing hi zone that was tested a few times as resistance before the break to the upside ...

Drop down a time frame to the 1min trigger and a perfect hidden divergence and band deviation re-entry to next t/f trend after a pullback set-up develops indicating a high probability place to get 'with next higher t/f+ trend' again at this potential rbs zone on the next higher t/f (5min)

G/L

 

[bbmac]

It's in the Charts!!

They do say that the chart's know, and following a sell off from late overnight/asian Hi @ 6412 area and just a couple of minutes before the release of the 0830am gmt Uk Boe/Mpc minutes the 5min chart set-up with a pinbar trigger in a classic reversal bullish divergence/band deviation based set-up against the prevailing bearish price action off that Hi in the late asian session.

 

[bbmac]

Fib fans?

I don't use the fibonacci fans myself but see the value of them as a potential supp/res tool/factor and like others particularly in confluence with other factors.

This morning's Low @ 5767 was a good example being @ a previous daily swing lo =previous support=potential support zone, around 38.2% of 3646-7044 and the 50% fan of the current yearly lo-hi [3505-7044.]

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Price pulled back off Monday's early lows @ 5767 to a recovery hi at the previous 4hr/daily swing lo=previous support=potential sbr zone shown as the blue zone in the 1hr screenshot below. Co-existant with that zone was also a previous 1hr/4hr swing lo zone running 6128-65..and within this entire 6108-6165 potential res/sbr zone is the underside of the previous daily t/f ascending support trend line (potential sbr) and some fibs of the swings down to 5767 starting at the 7044 high. it became obvious that the most confluence existed at the 6125-40 area and for those that use fib fans the 76.4% of the 6468-5767 fall was included in that confluence...and as you will see from screenshot below...where were the offers waiting,? that's right, where there was most confluence of potential resistance factors...

Confluence, confluence and more confluence, you can never have enough...it's where the highest probability trading opportunities reside, even against a trend, and in this example trend was up to 1hr at time of sell-off

Of course the hidden divergence on the 4hr chart also added confluence of technical factors;

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Even if waiting for a1hr trigger a nice doji trigger @ this previous 4hr/daily swing lo=prev supp=potential rbs zone with the other confluence shown and discussed above the 50% fib shown above at the zone being the 50% of the 6468-5767 move. It doesn't get anymore higher in probability than this, a 1hr trigger @ the next higher t/f potential sbr zone co-existant with the t/f above that, and some other potential resistance factor confluence with a doji trigger..nice!! and price has obliged with a move to the downside of 150+ pips at time of writing.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

and again confluence

Price rallied from the London open/Asian low @ 5922, reversing the Asian/overnight bearish sentiment to see a high @ 6023..The confluence of 4 potential resistance factors circled on 1hr screenshot below

1. The previous 1hr swing hi=previous resistance=potential resistance zone
2. The 50% fib of the 6124-5922 swing
3. The underside of the previous 1hr ascending support trendline (sbr potential)
4. The daily calculated Pivot (minor factor)

...and for good measure mni were talking about supply in the 6020 area...sure enough price sold off 76pips from the Hi, correct at time of writing, and it illustrates the point about seeking confluence yet again.

 

[glyder]

Price rallied from the London open/Asian low @ 5922, reversing the Asian/overnight bearish sentiment to see a high @ 6023..The confluence of 4 potential resistance factors circled on 1hr screenshot below

1. The previous 1hr swing hi=previous resistance=potential resistance zone
2. The 50% fib of the 6124-5922 swing
3. The underside of the previous 1hr ascending support trendline (sbr potential)
4. The daily calculated Pivot (minor factor)

...and for good measure mni were talking about supply in the 6020 area...sure enough price sold off 76pips from the Hi, correct at time of writing, and it illustrates the point about seeking confluence yet again.

I took that trade, so am pleased I am on the right tracks, but I did not manage to see the degree of confluence you have found and described. There are many more angles to it than I considered before pulling the trigger. Many thanks for these enlightening posts BB.

 

[bbmac]

trend change

The 5min chart below is how the trend (as measured by overall price action-peak/valley analysis) changed off the potential resistance confluence described in posts above..

so as a new downtrend developed on this 5min t/f and as price pulled back to yet another LH at the potential sbr of the prev swing lo=previous support=potential sbr zone, it was always going to be a high probability play if a good hidden divergence based set-up developed on the t/f below-the 1min...Sure enough it did with a great bearish engulfing trigger and price duly obliged selling off to a new LL, the set-up coming at an immediate Lh on both the t/f it set-up on and the t/f above into whose trend a re-entry after a pullback was indicated.

This is how trends change and how advantage can be made of the pullbacks, ..in this case 'selling the rallys' in the highest probability circumstances. In this example the opa trend only extended to the 5min chart so no strong follow through to new intraday lows.

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Nfp

Rumours have been circulating since wednesday of a low -'ve or even +'ve NFP # due to be released later today. Buy the rumour/Sell the fact ? ..probably but over @ ff.com they have been lowering their forecast all week, currently -179k despite ADP's weds forecast of -254k (not that ADP is a good guide historically, but has got better recently.) Now further rumours that Ubs are holding short through NFP with 1.5200 target...

As we know it's anyone's guess really, and market reaction will depend on deviation from the forecast consensus, revisions to previous #, un-emp rate (currently 9.7%) and manuf job losses/gains.

A 'good' # (and that could mean a low -'ve number, say -100k well below consensus forecasts) and a stable un-emp rate @ 9.7% could see the $ bulls come backwith thoughts of the worst is over etc...

We'll know @ 1230pm gmt

G/L

 

[bbmac]

post NFP

So yesterday's NFP came in worse than forecast @ -263k, with a decrease in av hrly earnings and increase in un-emp rate to 9.8% but with a positive revision of last mth's headline # to -201k. Cable's kneejerk was a 50pip sell-off and 4 mins later hit a low @ 5800 level, and this is where you have to remind yourself that you are a technical trader as a clear reversal set-up developed on 1m and 5min with some weak patterns of bullish divergence on 15,30 and 1hr although no real set-ups. The 5min bullish divergence based reversal set-up is shown below and although not shown there was actually double seperate valley regular immediate bullish divergence in the osma.

@ 1334pm the 1min set-up (Reversal Extreme) developed a good bullish engulfing candle as the trigger to the set-ups and the potential Support was 'light bids @5800' touted by Mni as well as the Daily S3 calculated pivot...so all in all a nice trigger and reversal set-ups to go long despite the apparent knee-jerk reaction to some fundie data.

Price duly obliged and remained generally bullish after that till w/e close.

It's always good to remind yourself that you are a tech trader and that is how your edge is derived, so even 4mnins after a major news event, if a set-up comes along you gotta act on it.

 

[bbmac]

Situation re daily t/f @ friday's close

Friday's Daily closed as a bullish pinbar, (The 4hr too closing as abullish pinbar at Friday's market clse. The Weekly candle closed almost a doji (probably a spinningh top?) this after the bearish candle close of the september monthly candle. The pinbar on the daily falls in a previous swing lo=prev supp=potential support zone on that t/f (although not on the higher weekly t/f) and again the 50% fib fan of the current Yearly Lo-Hi 3505-7044- a second touch at Friday's 5800 Lo.

Looking again above current price on the daily t/f, the chart below shows where price found it's tp this week after the recovery from early Monday lows @ 5767,..the previous Daily swing lo=previous support=potential sbr zone with the 50% fib of the6468-5767 move. Aove there and there are previous ascending support trend lines that may act as sbr on a test from the underside as well as obvious previous swing hi's=prev resistance=potential resistance and a descending potential resistance trend line. There are of course more fibs of other moves from and including the current 7044 yearly Hi not shown on chart below.

 

[bbmac]

Resistance confluence @ 6119 hi and resultant downtrend

Thursday's 6119 hi in cable followed a steep rise up from a 5857 Wednesdays Lo. A dramatic sell-off from there has resulted...Look at the confluence of potential resistance factors that were at that 6119 Hi. The 4hr chart below shows the previous swing lo then hi =previous support then res = potential sbr/res zone on that t/f, the previous swing lo being co-existant on the daily t/f also. Also there is the descending resistance trend line, the 50% fib of the 6468-5767 move, and not shown below there were also the then Daily R3, and Weekly R1 calculated pivots and of course the prev sw hi=prev res=potential res on the 1hr t/f.

The Asian/overnight session leading into the London open today (Friday) continued with the sell-off pulling back from 5997-6031 (point c - point b) and when London opened and continued the selling, they did so from the pullback LH @ the potential sbr @ point b. This pattern continued, selling down to a new LL @ point e where a pullback to the previous 1hr swing lo=previous support=potential sbr zone @ point d resulted. The selling continued from this pullback LH, to a new LL @ point g, pulling back again to the previous 1hr sw lo=prev supp=potential sbr zone and a pullback LH @ point f where again the 'with trend' sell the rally participants continued the selling from this pullback LH to a new LL in the strong downtrend to 1hr t/f.

Selling the rally in a downtrend can be done by looking for hi-probability set-ups/triggers on the t/f's @ the potential sbr.. The examples below show the hidden divergence set-ups that occurred on the 15min then 5min t/f's @ points d and f respectively.

 

[bbmac]

W/e Fri 9th Oct

Friday's candle is a bearish engulfing of the body of the previous day's (Thursday) and indeed engulfs the entire Mon Tues and Weds candles of this past week also, yet the weekly pip range was only 46% of it's 52week average.

The screenshot below shows that this bearish engulfing daily candle has breeched the 50% fib fan of the 3505-7044 move up (current Yr Lo-current Yr Hi) and the close finds itself in the Previous swing lo [=previous imbalance of demand/supply=previous support ]=potential support zone on this t/f. Below this zone and the 38.2% fibs of the 3505-7044 and 3648-7044 move come into view...there being a previous minor swing hi=prev res=potential sbr zone co-existant with a more obvious previous swing hi in early January, and this exists between the 50% fibs of the moves mentioned above.
Above this is the 61.8% fib fan of the 3505-7044 move up and there is probably the bottom of the descending channel on this t/f.

The weekly candle has closed as a bearish inverted hammer:

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Gap up at new week's open?

Xe.com and others suggesting a big gap up from Friday's 5844 area close, at new week open may be on:

These quotes can of course change before new week open, but so far suggesting a big gap up?

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Re: possible gap up at next week's open

Price has closed having breeched the 4hr ascending potential support trend line finding some suppprt at the previous swing lo=previous support=potential support zone co-existant on 1hr and 4hr [4hr shown below] and of course @ that prev daily t/f sw lo=prev supp=pot supp zone shown in post above.

Anthing is possible, and if it does gap up it will do so to the area circled in 1hr screenshot below.

The theory is that all gaps get filled anyway but such a gap will doubtless take a few stops.

G/L

 

[1Pipped]

Afternoon bbmac, looks like its going to be no gap afterall... do you by any chance know if those high cable prices were tradeable anywhere that is open at weekend - eg: oanda - or were they just on xe ?

 

[bbmac]

Afternoon bbmac, looks like its going to be no gap afterall... do you by any chance know if those high cable prices were tradeable anywhere that is open at weekend - eg: oanda - or were they just on xe ?

No, strange that more than one source over w/e were suggesting that..in the event made a hi @ 5867 after open, before a dip to 5809 and rally to 5882 asian hi in the late asian session see-ing selling into the london session off that Hi (underside of previous 4hr ascending support trend line) where a sell off to the 5720/25 bids area mentioned by mni ensued, - this area being a previous swing hi from December 2008, visible now on weekly chart. Area of lows is also bottom of the descending daily price channel and in the area of a 3 fib cluster running 5747-16-5692, being 38.2% 3642-7044, 50% 4392-7044, and 38.2% of main current yearly lo-hi 3505-7044 respectively...1hr chart below shows the regular immediate bullish divergence set-up @ the current i/day lows...there was a lso a regular sequential bullish divergence set-up on 4hr..as well as similar mix of bullish divergence set-ups down to 1min..

G/L

 

[bbmac]

Tues 13th Oct 09

A generally bearish asian/overnight session saw london open continue the selling from a 5797 pullback hi, the Uk Cpi/Rpi data knee-jerk see-ing more selling to a low of 5707. Mni had mentioned bids in the area and in the post above I had made mention of '...a 3 fib cluster running 5747-16-5692, being 38.2% 3642-7044, 50% 4392-7044, and 38.2% of main current yearly lo-hi 3505-7044 respectively...' as well as '... this area being a previous swing hi from December 2008, visible now on weekly chart...' mentioned also in above post. There were regular immediate and sequential bullish divergence set-ups to the 1hr t/fat these lows, the 1hr being seen below;

So I was un-surprised at the extent of the pullback/reversal...indeed if the Daily closes as a bullish pinbar/hammer ..this too could develop into reversal set-up

 

[bbmac]

Weeky t/f

Speaking of that previous swing hi from december 2008, it is circled on weekly chart below, but I wonder how much influence it may have over price in respect of potential support. The screenshot below shows the 3 fib cluster as well as the near-term prev sw hi x 2=prev res=potential rbs at orange zone and the 200 week sma coming through at 5470ish (pink line.)

G/L