ARM Hldgs.(ARM)...

shelman

1
439 1
think this sums it up :-

The Sceptic : Arm Holdings
23/07/2001 14:08:46

A Dow Jones Newswires column
by Robb M. Stewart in London
 Come on in, the water's great.
Not the sort of line you hear from
traders in tech stocks these troubled
days, but it appears to sum up the
thinking of investors hoping to surf
Arm Holdings' shares back to the
heights of last year.
And, to be sure, the British designer
of semiconductors does seem to be
weathering the downturn in prospects
for chip companies.
Today, Arm managed to top pretax
profit expectations for its second
quarter. And, with two quarters of
earnings visible, it says it remains
comfortable with full-year expectations
penciled in by the market.
This is a continuation of a solid
performance, with diluted EPS up 23%
for the half year and 14% over the
first quarter. It's backed by cash
generation - a balance of #94.8m at the
end of the second quarter against
#78.4m in the first.
And all this despite an estimated 20%
drop in unit shipments and 23% decline
in royalty revenue between the fourth
quarter last year and the first this
year.
So how did Arm manage to post such
healthy results? Simply put, Arm says
it saw an offsetting rise in income
from licensing of its chip systems and
sales of development systems.
Even as chip makers such as Infineon
Technologies and others are hit by
slumping demand and prices for their
products, Arm insists no one can afford
to let up on R&D investment. That means
turning to Arm or risk losing any
technological edge when a recovery does
occur.
So, with the shares down some 80% on
last year's peak and roughly 65% on
January's high, surely investors are on
to a good thing here?
Before dipping toes, it might pay to
consider what could yet go wrong.
While Arm claims up to two months'
visibility where others appear blind,
the company is to a large extent
looking backwards. Because the results
record sales for the previous quarter,
the sector's latest round of quarterly
warnings aren't factored in yet.
Chip inventories are still being
whittled and there's still evidence of
high overcapacity in the semiconductor
industry. This may yet prompt Arm
customers to rein in R&D spending, at
least until there are some signs of
recovery among their own customers.
Also, while Arm now sees less that a
quarter of its revenue from royalties,
the contribution from this area surely
must increase as the business matures.
That may not occur during the current
down-cycle, but it does suggest the
high valuation the stock still trades
on may erode - just look at the hit
royalties have taken so far.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly,
is broader sentiment.
Arm also managed to beat expectations
with its first-quarter results, which
prompted a modest rebound in shares.
But that was eaten away as broader
worries about the tech sector erased
confidence across the board. Eventually
the stock fell even further.
This could happen again following the
second quarter numbers.
According to consensus figures from
JCF Group, Arm ended Friday trading on
a P/E of 61X current year expectations.
That premium falls to 45.7X for 2002
and 35.3X for 2003.
If Arm continues to hold up earnings,
it stands to be one of the first stocks
to race away.
But with its customers still operating
in the dark and industry sentiment
still in the doldrums, there's nothing
firm yet to suggest investors should
abandon a more cautious wait-and-see
approach.

14:08 Jul 23 2001

Best to trade this one ala Riz.

Steve
 

shelman

1
439 1
Caution be blowed .... i've let it run.
I wonder how high this time before the inevitable bad news from elsewhere gives the mmanipulaters an excuse to hammer the price for the benefit of the fat cats and hopefully us.
S
 

waldorf

1
141 1
Sold at 263p today a 20% gain, its good enough for me, crap news over the weekend and i'm right, a good press and i'm wrong. As the nas closed up a bit ARM should open higher on Monday all things being equal, who can predict, rather have the cash, can always get back in again.
Good Luck
Col
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Up +13 today at 262 on a fairly high volume of 16,365,671... once again proving its strength and that it's not an ordinary tech dog...from here up mostly depends on the general sentiment, if favourable it might turn 300 back into support, if not 250 will still be a strong support level, armed scored enough on its own...well done Steve, Col and any others who got in earlier...

Riz
 

waldorf

1
141 1
In again at 267p the other day and doing nicely, up 7.77% on the nasdaq at the close..... if ARM breaks 300p tomorrow where do the charts forcast the next resistance.....Slung my charting software, so i'm a bit in the dark..... any sugestions of accurate well programed software to use for a Mac or pc, used trendsoft, but can use pc based software if it works with virtual pc 4.0, i know Sharescope.... Omnitrader and Metastock do.
Thanks. Col
 

shelman

1
439 1
Still letting it run, its gone past the point where i would normally take profit ( ask Riz :) ) so happy now keeping a trailing stop.
I'm feeling greedy and think ( hope ) maybe 350 is possible ... please.

Steve
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Well now that it's hit and bounced down from 300 which I referred to right at the start of its up movement from 200, I advised today in the chatroom to take profit and wait for retracement to buy them back cheaper, it turned out to be a right prediction as it ended the day at 294...intraday it formed 2 tops at 298.5 and bounced up 4 times at 293...

As I said in my first reply to those shorting it, arm is a sentiment driven, strong share...It's still strong and sentiment is still +ve...it's been great to me only today I made +12.5 on an intrahour trade...

Still from here on, depending on how it behaves next time it hits 300, we've got to be careful and not to get carried away, namely keep securing profit...

I'd watch 320 if 300 broken through strongly and sell on resistance and buy back on support from now on, it's not a one-way street...but enjoy :) (I am sure Steve does:))

Riz
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Hehe...I know Steve was smiling when working out the profit :)

But I hope everyone did take profits when it broke through 320 and pulled back to rebreak it down this time...and rebought on dips of course..that's how it works with ARM these days...break through a resistance level, back to retest it if holds another bounce, if not retrace to rebounce at a lower level...I got +5 intraday today...

Ended 13.25 4.5% 307.25 after hitting 328-29 and hovering above 320 for a long while...thus confirming my 320 resistance level also giving us another one (328) to watch...I always get out at the end of the day, but if US closes +ve and I catch them below 310 I might consider more intraday longs on arm tomorrow...

Good Luck and enjoy everyone

Riz
 

shelman

1
439 1
Only one intraday Riz ? :)
It was difficult trying to work it out but i sold and bought back at 311.5 for +9 on the day.
I'm obviously more confident than you, or should that read more stupid.
Anyways it gives me a little more leeway tomorrow
Good luck
Steve
 

titus-uk

1
291 5
Back with a smile.....

hi again chaps....

Just back from my 3 weeks in switzerland - ace time - though as I had CNBC I never got completely away from how things were doing - to much temptation to keep an eye on events.

Actually broke a rule of holding shares whilst being away - esp. with results! However, as I only held ARM, I felt reckless - and glad I did!!

I am pleased we got through the 300p barrier today - was a little doubtful about it yesterday! However, whilst i haven't read the news in detail, I gather there was SOME negative news about chip stocks today - yet the Naz closed up. Clearly good news for ARM etc.

Tomorrow is an important day - first in terms of price at resistance levels, but also that many of the indicators are approaching oversold levels that were reached in the April-May rally. If new highs aren't reached, it will be time to leave the ride, but what a fun ride it has been!!

All the best,

Mark
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
Well welcome back...and glad you're already in profit, so you too enjoy :)

Riz
 

shelman

1
439 1
Picked up from another BB :-

Saturday 4th August 2001 8:00am

Microsoft Pocket PC to lock out non-ARM chips

Merlin works some magic for Brit chips...

Microsoft is turning its back on two of its current chip partners by limiting support in the next version of its Pocket PC operating system to just one supplier - UK-based ARM Holdings.

Pocket PCs running on the current generation of the operating system support processors from three different manufacturers - MIPS, SuperH and ARM.

However, the next generation of Microsoft's Pocket PC operating system - code-named Merlin - will only support processors produced by ARM Holdings.

Sources suggest that the next OS will see Microsoft abandon the multi-processor model in favour of a single processor support.

This decision is likely to reduce the amount of processor and memory resources consumed by the operating system, the so-called "footprint".

Microsoft has already been criticised for having too large a footprint on its mobile devices, and the Pocket PC has a much shorter battery life than many alternative devices, such as those made by Palm.

It will also simplify application development and OS upgrades.

Many Pocket PCs already use ARM processors, including the most popular range, the Compaq iPaq.

MIPS processors appear in Casio's Cassiopeia, as well as handheld devices from Philips, Samsung, Sharp and some other Compaq models such as the Aero.

Cores from SuperH, a joint venture between STMicroelectronics and Hitachi, are used in Hitachi products and the HP Jornada.

The news will come as a blow to MIPS and SuperH, but will not spell the end of their involvement in the market as both products are used in a range of other embedded applications.

Besides, Microsoft does not dominate the Pocket PC market in the same way as it dominates the desktop - Palm still has a larger share of the US market.

Microsoft declined to comment on the news.

_________________________________

Another bit of good news... makes me wonder what the share price would be if we were in a true bull market.

Steve
 

Riz

Experienced member
1,266 5
One of the few going up today, +3.25 at 306.5..thus holding on to the major support level of 300...

Riz
 

shelman

1
439 1
Interestingly ARM closed up 1.2% on the Nas but down 4.2% here ... will there be an opportunity a.m. ?
Maybe not ... the MMs will make sure of that.

Steve
 
 
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